Maidens in the Derby and other Contentious Issues

Yesterday I posted that I do not believe the Kentucky Derby should allow maidens in over horses that are proven winners with points. Many people took my statement ver batim, assuming that this meant I believed a horse with 2 points should get in over a horse like Trojan Nation who earned 40 points when second in the Wood Memorial. That is not so, but let's take a look at this history of maidens in the Kentucky Derby. 

Maidens in the Kentucky Derby and other issues

For the first time since 1998 we face the curious situation of a maiden running in the Kentucky Derby. That maiden is Trojan Nation, a very well bred son of Street Cry (IRE) out of the Champion 2yo Filly  Storm Song (Summer Squall). Trojan Nation has raced six times, with his lone stakes race resulting in a Derby-qualifying head-bob loss to Outwork in the Wood Memorial. Prior to that he had never run better than third in his five starts. Unfortunately for the rest of points-amassing horses, the slowest Wood Memorial in the history of the race was enough to get this maiden into the twenty horse starting gate. I'm not knocking the Wood Memorial, despite the weak field, it is still a G1 points race. For the record, ever since the Kentucky Derby points system has been implemented, the majority of horses entering the starting gate are horses that I have no qualms with. However, it is my belief that maidens entering over winners with Derby points is a bit upsetting. Why do I feel this way? Well, let’s take a look at the facts.

No maiden has won since 1933

The last maiden to win the Kentucky Derby was in 1933, when Brokers Tip won by a much debated head bob in an era without photofinishes as his jockey and the runner-up’s physically fought one another to the wire.

Broker’s Tip entered the Derby a maiden, starting four times as a two year old and once as a three year old prior to the race. He left the Derby a victor with his name memorialized in history. There were thirteen horses in the gate when Broker’s Tip left, but only twelve finished as one was pulled up midrace.

Broker’s Tip never saw the inside of the winner’s circle again. That was his sole victory, and after some lackluster starts, he was retired to stud.

The maiden Sir Barton and the Triple Crown

The first ever winner of the Triple Crown was Sir Barton, who is as famous in his initial conquest of the feat as he is in his loss to Man O’War in a match race the ensuing year. It’s important to note that the Kentucky Derby did not hold the prestige it currently does, and the Triple Crown wasn’t a legitimate series until many year later.
Heading into the Kentucky Derby, Sir Barton was a highly average horse. All of his starts as a two year old had come in stakes races, and he had run 5ht, 9th, 9th, 9th, 7th, and 16th before finally running 2nd in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont to conclude his three-year-old campaign.

Twelve horses contested the Kentucky Derby in 1919, the year of Sir Barton’s victory. It was Sir Barton's first start of the season an the horse drastically changed his running style, heading straight ot the lead and never looking back. Prior to that he had been breaking slowly and staying behind.
Sir Barton's case is hard to compare to modern day racing because through the current system, horses are basically require to run prior to the Derby in their sophomore season. Back then the Preakness was contested four days after the Derby, and the Belmont ten days after that. Clearly a different time, so comparison of this maiden winner to the modern era is irrelevant. 

Buchanan Wins the 10^th Derby, breaking his maiden in the process

The tenth running of the Kentucky Derby in 1884, Hall of Fame Jockey Isaac Murphy wanted nothing to do with his mount, Buchanan. Naturally fractious before the gate, Buchanan threw his jockey, in turn provoking Murphy to ask to scratch his horse. Fortunately for Murphy he was threatened with a suspension if he refused to ride, and the rest is history. Buchanan won the Derby in a field of six horses. He continued on to win the Clark Stakes, which at the time was one of the most important races of the Churchill spring meet. Buchanan was the real deal.

Prior to his entry in the Kentucky Derby, Buchanan had run seven times at age two, all in stakes races. He had run second five times and twice he was third. (Note: some sources say six times, but pedigree query has 7 listed runs his two-year-old season)

Maiden Derby contenders since 1937

Here’s a fun little chart provided by the Kentucky Derby website. It is a list of maiden competitors and their respected final positions. As you can see, a maiden has never even cracked the top seven. Granted, there isn’t a large pool to select from, but the reason there is not a large pool is because maidens do not belong in the race. End of discussion.

Summary of maiden victors

Brokers Tip, Sir Barton and Buchanan all won the Kentucky Derby in fields of six to 13 horses. In the modern day Derby system, it is infrequent that we see a Derby contested that does not include the use of the auxiliary gate, positions 15-20. We need to adjust to the modern era and acknowledge that maiden competitors are only going to find it more difficult to contest this race than ever before. Even back in the day, it’s glaringly obvious that Sir Barton was a rare exception in that he became a Triple Crown winner and one of the nicest horses of the early 1900s. Buchanan had run a series of bang-up races as a two year old, competing solely in stakes and hitting the board in each of his six starts. Brokers Tip is the oddball out, having never won again, and no one is actually sure he even won the Derby due to the lack of a photo finish.

Fillies in the Kentucky Derby

My friend made the argument that if I were to bar maidens from competing in the Derby because it has been 83 years since the last won, then I may as well ban fillies because there was a 65 year gap between Regret and Genuine Risk. That’s a silly comparison, and I understand he was trying to make my argument seem trivial (it’s not), but I want to address it anyway, because not everyone knows the history of fillies in the Derby. Regret went into the Kentucky Derby an undefeated champion two year old who had already walloped the boys in the Special, sanford, and Hopeful. The Derby was her first start of her three-year-old season. She is credited as the horse who brought it to the level of its current-day prestige.

Genuine Risk had run second in the Wood Memorial prior to the Derby, which in the modern day system would have granted her 40 points, enough to contest.

Winning Colors had wrecked the boys in the Santa Anita Derby, which would have given her 100 points under the modern day system.

Clearly irrelevant. I could say let’s ban geldings while we are at it because Funny Cide was the first to win since Clyde van Dusen in 1929, but that is another silly comparison. Funny Cide wasn’t a maiden and he had run second in the Wood and Louisiana Derby, and Clyde van Dusen was not a maiden, being a four times stakes winner as a two year old.

International horses in the Derby

The UAE Derby as a qualifying race. Some people think it silly that the UAE Derby is a points race, and that I should prefer to see a horse win the UAE Derby and run in the Kentucky Derby over a maiden running in the Derby. The UAE Derby is a graded stakes (G2)  that occurs on one of the biggest international days of racing, the Dubai World Cup. The United States is attempting to foster international interest in the Derby by allowing the UAE Derby to be a points race, a symbiotic relationship in that it also attracts USA-based horses to run over in Dubai, i.e. Frank Conversation. Not exactly sure where the point of contention about whether or not this is valid is coming from, as only three horses have even bothered to come abroad to run in the Derby after competing in Dubai, so it is not as though the race is detracting from other points horses.

Lani’s victory in the UAE Derby was his third win from six starts.

Of UAE Derby winners, three have come over to contest the Kentucky Derby. Last year, Mubtaahij ran 8^th before returning to run 4^th in the Belmont Stakes. He was most recently a strong 2^nd to America’s top male handicap horse California Chrome in the Dubai World Cup.

Regal Ransom is another UAE winner who came over to contest the Kentucky Derby, running 8^th here. He followed that up with a win in the G2 Super Derby.

Lines of Battle is yet another UAE winner who ran 7^th in the Kentucky Derby but eventually proved himself as a top competitor, peaking with a G1W in Hong Kong.

Final thoughts

My debate is not about the points system. My debate is that maidens have an incredibly poor record in the Kentucky Derby, and with the points system, are still capable of running in it despite other horses with points who are not maidens. Perhaps Trojan Nation is a rare exception and may win, but his lackluster five failed maiden special weights attempts followed by a second in the worst Wood Memorial of all time seriously irks me. Sure, he is royally bred, but is he qualified? Not in my opinion. However, I do not make the rules, I’m a simple observer. There are so many flaws with so many systems in racing that perhaps we should just be grateful that we have a semi-functioning one finally determining who will run in the Derby, even if it has its quirks.

What would I do to amend this problem if the point system was up to me? Honestly, a lot more research. I would look at the past performances of every maiden to run in the Kentucky Derby and compare it to Trojan Nation. I would see how Trojan Nation performs in the Derby. I’d pray next year’s crop of horses ix just better in general, because this wouldn’t slide if we weren’t in a terrible year of three-year-olds. There would have to be a trade off at some level, a maiden can contest over a winner with points if the non-maidens points were in lowly enough races as to render them irrelevant (say the Grey Stakes up at Woodbine during the two-year-old season, etc). Any which way, something has got to give. But it won't. It's horse racing, after all, the industry that fears change more than any other in the United States!