Mackenzie's Final Derby Top 10

Post positions are in, Derby is tomorrow, let's take a look at my final top 10!


1. Nyquist – Doug O’Neill – Mario Gutierrez – Reddam Racing, LLC

If I have said it once I have said it a million times, if you do not have the undefeated two-year-old champion at the top of your Derby list, are you crazy?

Pros:  Nyquist is seven for seven, include four G1s. There has never been a challenge he hasn’t won. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was one of the most impressive races of the year as Nyquist had a difficult trip, covered a huge amount of additional distance when wide throughout, and still got up to win (over many of the other top competitors including Exaggerator and Brody’s Cause). His Florida Derby was hailed as the great showdown between the East (Mohaymen) and the West, and it wasn’t even a close match. Nyquist destroyed the field. Sure, the Mohaymen camp is full of warranted excuses, but Nyquist still beat up the field despite bearing out.

Cons: Bearing out in the stretch of the Florida Derby is definitely something that we did not want to see, but as most of Nyquists wins are close, did he just get distracted as he drew away? Also, people point to the lack of distance in his pedigree as he is a son of Uncle Mo out of a Forestry mare. True, Uncle Mo and his sire Indian Charlie did not necessarily want to go far, and Forestry’s offspring are milers, but his female side is still loaded with hidden distance in the form of Seeking the Gold and Cox’s Ridge.

Running Style: Nyquist is the most versatile horse in the field. He can win from the lead, stalking, or as he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, midpack and wide.  Of course his gate draw is going to be of importance, but as of now it looks as though his versatility is sure to benefit him.

Conclusion: The top, obvious choice. Of the five* undefeated 2yo champions to enter the Kentucky Derby, three have come out victorious, two were runner-ups. I’ll take those odds any day. Lucky #13. 

*= There were actually six total, but Mister Frisky was campaigned his 2yo season in Puerto Rico

2. Brody’s  Cause – Dale Romans – Luis Saez – Albaugh Family Stable

A complete no show in his seasonal debut, Brody’s Cause came back in a big way when winning the G1 Blue Grass Stakes on opening weekend at Keeneland.

Pros: Bred to run all day, Brody’s Cause is a son of Giant’s Causeway out of the Sahm mare Sweet Breanna. He’s got loads of pedigree and his fifth dam is a sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His racing record has been quite interesting. A no show in his debut over the turf at Ellis Park, he returned to win a maiden special in a big way at Churchill from off the pace. From there he went on to upset the field in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before running a fast-closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He had some time off after that race and returned to work like a monster before running a mind-boggling seventh as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. Undeterred, his Eclipse Award winning trainer Dale Romans continued on his charter course with much success as Brody demolished the field in the Blue Grass Stakes. Other than his failed debuts each season, he has been as strong a horse as there can be. I love his post at 19, with the speed outside of him. Danzing Candy will either annihilate or spread the field sending to the lead, and this will allow Brody to drop back and relax. He's been wide in many of his starts before and it does not bug him, and it will help him get a clear trip. His turn of foot is truly impressive and he has done everything right in terms of training.

Cons: This year’s Derby does not look like it will have an incredibly hot pace unless Mike Smith sends Danzing Candy in the killer fractions he set in his previous start. Danzing Candy also drew gate 13, so there is that. Horses like Outwork and Nyquist will keep the speed semi-honest. Still, it could be that the pace will prove troublesome for the closers, which account for half the field. Also, the Blue Grass’s top three finishers were all very far back closing into the pace, so it may have been the ideal setup for him. His speed figures also have not been particularly fast, but he is a two time grade 1 winner at 2 and 3 now.

Running Style: Dead closer. Back of the pack, killer turn of foot.

Conclusion: He seems to be one of the most legitimate closer contenders. I love that he has already won over Keeneland, that he is sitting on his third off the layoff, and he has physically matured so much from 2 to 3. With a good trip he has a huge run in him.

3.  Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen – Florent Geroux – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm

This may be a higher than warranted spot for the Louisiana Derby victor, but I think he has the class and the running style to have success in the race.

Pros: Conditioned by soon-to-be-inducted Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner has a phenomenal pedigree and has only run well in his two starts this year. He’s by Candy Ride (ARG), out of a Giant’s Causeway mare that is half to Horse of the Year Saint Liam. He was an easy winner of the Louisiana Derby after sitting a perfect trip and drawing away to win by 4 ½ lengths. He also had an ideal trip, stalking again, in the Risen Star. I like where he drew in gate 5 because he will probably sit an easy, inside trip.

Cons: The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Louisiana Derby was Grindstone in 1996, exactly 20 years ago. In 2003, Funny Cide ran second in the LA Derby and then won the Kentucky Derby. That’s it. Does not bode well for horses prepping in Louisiana. Not to mention his Louisiana Derby final time was a whole second slower than older horses going the same distance on the undercard, no bueno. Gun Runner’s speed figures also have not been as high as many of the horses prepping.

Running Style: Gun Runner tends to sit tracking trips and makes his moves in the far turn. 

Conclusion: While some people are quick to dismiss Gun Runner, I think the question marks surrounding his name are not negatives but chances for this horse to prove what he is made of. Asmussen still has yet to win a Derby but he has a very nice horse in Gun Runner in terms of class and talent, and his running style is perfectly suitable for the field that we are going to have this year.

4. Creator – Steve Asmussen – Ricardo Santana Jr. – Winstar Farm

Creator first caught my eye when he made a sweeping move in the Rebel Stakes to land third. I guess I missed his first six starts, all maidens.

Pros: Creator looks like a horse who is coming into his own at the right time. It took him six starts to find himself, but when he did, he did it in a big way. He closed from the back of the pack to get up and win by 7 ¼ lengths at Oaklawn in February going 1 1/16 miles. From there Asmussen immediately graduated him to stakes company, and he was instantly rewarded as Creator put in a big effort to finish third in the Rebel behind Cupid and Whitmore. Behind Creator was Cherry Wine in fourth, who returned to finish a close third in the G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and is now being pointed to the Preakness, and my wise-guy horse Suddenbreakingnews. Rewatching the Arkansas Derby I am so very impressed by how Creator split horses and surged to get up and win by 1 1/4^th. It takes a special kind of horse to graduate from maiden company to G1 company in just a few efforts.

Cons: Only four horses have broken their maiden in their sixth start and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The most recent was Charismatic in 1999, and Real Quiet in 1998 broke his maiden in his 7^th start. Prior to that you have to go all the way back to Lawrin in 1938 to find a horse that broke his maiden as late as his 6^th start, and Lawrin did it in May of his 2yo year. Creator broke his maiden on February 27^th, and the only other Derby winner to break its maiden that late was Brokers Tip in 1933 when he actually broke his maiden in the Derby. Obviously, it is the Kentucky Derby so anything can happen, but I do not like those odds.

Running Style: Drop back to the back of pack, huge sweeping run.

Conclusion: Creator is by no means inexperienced, but his inability to find the winners circle until his 6^th start just recently at the end of February gives me reason for concern. I think he will run huge, he has a lot of courage and is willing to find the whole and split horses, but will he be able to get the right trip and find himself in the winners circle? I’m not sure. Either way I’ll use him in my supers.

5. Suddenbreakingnews – Donnie Von Hemel – Louis Quinonez – Samuel F. Henderson

Pros: Killer turn of foot will have him flying at the end of the race. Unfortunately Oaklawn does not have Trakus installed, but if they did I can almost guarantee he ran the fastest final furlong of the Arkansas Derby.  However, Creator had already gotten the jump. He has only been out of the money once, when he was a closing 5^th in the Rebel Stakes. He had a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby and encountered traffic troubles, but switching further outside and running down the center of the track he came quick as a bullet to finish second. He is bred to run all day, being a son of Mineshaft out of an Afleet Alex mare, so he should only benefit from the extra 1/8^th mile.  His work on 4/29 blew me away, he worked like a monster and registered a quick :59 3/5 seconds for five furlongs.

Cons: Suddenbreakingnews may encounter some traffic issues in the stretch of the Derby. Because half of the field is closers, there is going to be a lot of horses flying late. He let Creator get the jump on him in the Arkansas Derby and he will have to engage early in the Kentucky Derby to ensure he gets into gear in time to hit the wire.

Running Style: Deep closer.

Conclusion: I love this gelding. He’s hearty, comes running, and is bred impeccably for the distance. He is doing everything right heading into the Derby and may be peaking at the right time.

6.  Mor Spirit – Bob Baffert – Gary Stevens – Michael Lund Peterson

Baffert may not have another American Pharoah heading into the 2016 edition of the Derby, but he does have an intriguing contender in Mor Spirit.

Pros: Mor Spirit has run seven times and never been worse than second. He comes in off of a decent second in the Santa Anita Derby, a race that was confusing at best. The slop, quick pace upfront, and explosive move by Exaggerator did less to give me a clearer image of the Derby contenders than anything else. All I know for sure is that Mor Spirit will keep on plugging. He is already a G1 winner in taking the Los Al Futurity last year, and he has run three competitive races this year. He is guaranteed to be running down the stretch, it is just a matter of whether or not the timing will be right and how the pace unfolds.

Cons: He’s almost too much of a plodder. Mor Spirit is the type of horse who needs to make one sustained run at his opponents and he may face traffic issues in the stretch of the Derby. Not only that but I am also worried about Gary Stevens’ ability to close on a horse such as Mor Spirit, one that needs encouragement and a hard ride to the wire. He doesn't like mud in his face, and traffic scares him. And here's a handy angle, none of Bob's kids other than Bode will be attending the Derby. They were all there for American Pharoah.

Running Style: Midpack, one sustained effort.

Conclusion: I really like where I think this talented son of Eskendereya will be sitting, midpack, but I am worried about his (lack of) a turn of foot. He will make one long drive and if he doesn’t experience traffic issues and hasn't taken a lot of dirt to the face, it should help him to hit the board. 

7. Exaggerator – Keith Desormeaux – Kent Desormeaux – Big Chief Racing, LLC and others

No idea what to make of the Santa Anita Derby. Let’s begin.

Pros: Always shows up, never gets the job down. He enters the sloppy Santa Anita Derby, takes back and with the fast pace puts in a killer move to make his opponents look like they’re standing still. He wins by 6 1/4^th lengths. Did the tactic change benefit him? We know he can run in slop, so that is great. He got a high figure for his Santa Anita Derby and he is by Curlin, so we know he doesn’t have serious distance limitations up top. Vindication being his broodmare sire, he still had the precocity to be relevant as a 2yo, taking the Saratoga Special and Delta Downs Jackpot. Is he peaking at the right time? He’s run at five different racetracks as well, so that’s a plus. We know he can travel and adapt.

Cons: Always second best when running against Nyquist. Benefited from an insane pace set by Danzing Candy so the Santa Anita Derby set up for him perfectly. I just do not love him. He's a funky mover on the track as well, a lot of knee action.

Running Style: He was more of a midpack horse but in his last start became a real closer, flying from the back. Add him to the giant list of closers coming on late.

Conclusion: I know people love him, the California preps were considered the best, and he’s ranked in the top 3 on almost everyone’s Derby list. I’m just not sure that last race of his was a fluke and he’s just second best to the top tier. Guess we will find out soon.

8. Mohaymen – Kiaran McLaughlin – Junior Alvarado – Shadwell

If you draw a line through the Florida Derby, Mohaymen is one of the top contenders. Luckily his failure to fire in the Florida Derby has allowed for many excuses as to his poor performance, so we will ignore it.

Pros: A $2.2 million purchase, Mohaymen has really lived up to his billing. Prior to the Florida Derby he was undefeated, sweeping four consecutive Grade 1 races following his maiden victory at Belmont in September. He’s got very impressive tactical speed and during his undefeated streak was never challenged, winning for fun each time. The Florida Derby was a strange race over a sloppy track where Mohaymen went very wide throughout, so it may be a toss. If it is, then this horse has done nothing wrong. Neil McLaughlin said the only horse he can compare Mohaymen to is Invasor, Shadwell’s freaky 8x G1 winner. Not bad company to keep. Not to mention his breeze on 4/29 was quite interesting. He almost threw his rider before the work started while repeatedly leaping through the air and he was not allowed to gallop out much but he did it all easily and quickly. He looks like a horse who is peaking at the right time and feeling full of himself.

Cons: His Florida Derby was a complete disaster. Sure he was forced wide on a weird surface, but he hit a complete wall and Junior had no horse under him. Additionally, the horses that he has been beating are awful. Nyquist was his first real test and Nyquist easily put him away.

Running Style: Tactical speed will be a huge advantage for this horse. He’s naturally very fast and he can also rate.

Conclusion: He is a bit of a dark horse. Draw a line through his Florida Derby, he's the second choice after Nyquist. With it, he's morning line 10-1. Will he show up on Saturday?

9. Outwork – Todd Pletcher – Johnny Velazquez – Repole Stable

His work on 4/29 changed my mind a little on this big boy.

Pros: His final tuneup for the Kentucky Derby was just a monstrous move, completely decimating his solid workmate Azar and doing it impressively. He’s got a little knee action but it doesn’t matter, that was a big big work. Personally loathed the Wood Memorial, it was the slowest running ever and he barely held off Trojan Nation, a maiden. Ignoring that, he was precocious enough to win as an early 2yo in April at Keeneland. He got a long time off after that to mature and came back at Tampa as an allowance winner in February. He immediately went to the Tampa Bay Derby where he lost to stablemate Destin by a length. He followed that up with a victory in the not impressive Wood Memorial, but it was a win. He’s a speedy horse and he’s bred to be a longer distance Uncle Mo type, as his broodmare sire is Empire Maker. His dam is a ½ to the much exalted Cairo Prince, so he’s a super classy pedigree.

Cons: He’s slow. Or at least, his Wood was incredibly slow. He was a toss for me but his work returned him to this list. He barely beat a maiden last out. The Wood hasn’t produced many Derby winners recently. Todd has a horrid record in the Derby.

Running Style: He’ll be up on the lead or pressing it.

Conclusion: Still do not love him but was impressed enough by how he swallowed up ground in his work to add him back here. He’s got the right running style to be relevant and he’s got Johnny Velazquez up who sure knows his way around the Derby field.

1. Shagaf - Chad Brown - Joel Rosario - Shadwell
Pros: Heading into the Wood Memorial Shagaf looked like a very nice horse for Shadwell, also undefeated. He was an easy winner of the Gotham at Aqueduct and it seemed as though Shadwell was heading into the final Derby preps with a full hand. Shagaf is by Bernardini out of an Unbridled's Song mare who is half sister to a BC Marathon winner. He probably can get the distance, though I am not a huge fan of Bernardini or Unbridled's Song. I love how he looked out on the track Thursday morning, full of energy and strong.
Cons: He had a rough trip in the wood and was toasted by a maiden and Outwork. He is trained by Chad Brown, who is not famous for his reputation as a Derby contender trainer, or a dirt trainer. He is going to have to step up in a big way here.
Running Style: Midpack or tracking. He will most likely be sitting midpack in this field however.
Conclusion: He has a shot and at 20-1 morning line, why not use him? He is not likely to drop much lower than that.

Best of luck to everyone on Derby day! May the jockeys and horses come home safe.