Dubai World Cup Carnival 2018 - Night 3

R1: TB – Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

Grand Argentier – Storm Belt – Don’t Give Up

We saw quite a few of these horses in last week’s handicap that was won by Frankyfourfingers. Grand Argentier comes out of a different race, however, and will hopefully freshen up this field. Chances are he and stablemate Active Spirit will send to the lead, though I do not imagine a speed duel will ensure. Both have won on the lead in the past and I think Grand Argentier may be able to hold on this time, Active Spirit faded badly last week to FFF. I will take Storm Belt next, who was second in that same handicap. I’ll round out with another Dubawi trying dirt for the first time, although Ply didn’t work out last week, I’ll take Don’t Give Up this week.

R2: TB -Handicap – 2810m(14F) – Turf

Natural Scenery - Red Galileo – Prince of Arran 

Natural Scenery was very successful last year, running second in the Ebor Handicap and the Northumberland Plate, two very competitive handicaps. This is her first try in Dubai, as a five-year-old. Next I took Red Galileo, who ran well to be second in a listed race at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile in his last run, and that was one of three consecutive bridesmaid efforts by close margins. He has run well at Meydan before, with a win and third from three starts.  I took Prince of Arran next as he drops out of serious G1 company, which he failed to perform in over the summer, down to handicap ranks, an Dubai may suit him well.

R3: TB – Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

Claim the Roses – Galvanize - Indianapolis

A rather uninspiring mile race here. I took Claim the Roses, a son of Speightstown who was a good third in his last start here as well. He likes to race forwardly, and there isn’t an abundance of speed in the race.  The only other horse who seems to display some early speed is Medaglia d’Oro son Galvanize, who I chose for second here for trainer Doug Watson, who ran fourth behind Claim the Roses in his last start.  Close out with new Coolmore stallion Cupid’s brother, Indianapolis, who really hasn’t lived up to expectations in Dubai, but never say never.

R4: TB – 2000 Guineas Trial – 1400m(7F) – Dirt

Waqqad – Wasim - Gold Town

Waqqad is the only horse in the race really bred for the dirt, being a son of Quality Road out of an AP Indy mare. He was a winner here on the 20^th on the turf, after his debut running second on the dirt by ¾ lengths. I’ll take Wasim next, a son of Acclamation who has a second and third from two starts on the dirt. I do not love that he is breaking from gate 12, but there isn’t much to work with in this field of relatively untested three-year-olds. Round out with Godolphin’s Gold Town, a son of Street Cry who has yet to try dirt, but does have two wins over turf, including his most recent.

R5 – TB – G2 Cape Verdi – 1600m(8F) – Turf

Opal Tiara – Promising Run – Rehana – Absolute Blast

I took Opal Tiara here, who ran very well when finishing fourth to Benbatl in the Singspiel Stakes last out. She only lost by about three lengths, and she has run well at Meydan in the past. Restricted to her gender, she may step up here. Next up I took Godolphin’s Promising Run, who won the Al Rashidya here last year. Rehana next, she ran a good fourth to D’bai a couple weeks ago and should be competitive here. Finally, Absolute Blast has been travelling a bit with success from Rome to Turkey, and for a six-year-old daughter of Kodiac, is an exciting entry for young trainer Archie Watson.

R6: TB – UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (Div 2) – 1400m(7F) – Dirt

One Season –  Tangled - Moqarrab

One Season, a son of Showcasing out of a Broken Vow mare, was a winner in his sole lifetime start, here at Meydan back in December. He won easily, and appears to be the pick here.  Tangled, a son of talented but deceased Society Work, is already well raced, with eight starts under his belt.  He’s run second and third in his last two starts, both in group company. Moqarrab, a son of Speightstown for Godolphin, was a winner last out at Wolverhampton. He has yet to try dirt but should take to it easily.

R7: TB – Handicap – 1000m(5F) – Turf

Tis Marvellous - Dutch Masterpiece – Polybius

Tis Marvellous drops out of a series of group performances into this handicap. He hasn’t seen the winners’ circle since 2016, when winning a G2, the next race after he broke his maiden, but he has been running against the likes of Caravaggio and Battash. I like Dutch Masterpiece here. He has a third in his last start here at Meydan, and he’s a relatively decent horse considering he has nine wins from 34 lifetime starts. Not too bad. Polybius has been competitive in handicaps this year in England, and the field here is weak, so he should show up.

R8: TB – Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

Bold Rex – Banksea – Mountain Hunter

Mike de Kock announced at the beginning of the Carnival that he was going to race his horses fit, and that many should win at the Carnival, so it’s not a wild guess to say Bold Rex could join that category today. Banksea, for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin, is another interesting choice. He does have a win at the distance, though he’s only run at it once in his past five starts. He gets the mount of William Buick, which is a good sign. Finish with Mountain Hunter, who was last in his previous start after breaking slowly, but has two wins over the turf from four lifetime attempts. 

Dubai World Cup Carnival 2018 - Night 2

R1 – TB – 1000 Guineas – 1400m(7F) – 3yoF – Dirt

Rayya – Winter Lightning – Bella Dubai – Caring Touch

Rayya looks to be a solid horse here, coming in off a 9.75L romp in her maiden over the course on December 7^th. It was a ridiculously easy victory for her, and chances are when she is actually asked, she will have even more to give, which would be significant as the time she won her maiden in was relatively average. I’m giving Winter Lightning a strong chance here as the half-sister to Thunder Snow will hopefully follow in his footsteps, adapting to the dirt. Her first start last out at Newmarket she ran very green but held on for second, and hopefully will look to improve here, though I am wary of Oisin Murphy taking the mount on another Godolphin entry, Caring Touch, rather than her. Bella Dubai was a close third in her singular lifetime start back at Meydan just under a month ago. The daughter of Speightstown wasn’t giving in, only continuing to roll at the wire, so she should put in a good effort here as well. Round out with Caring Touch who won her only other lifetime start. I’m just a bit cautious with her as nothing she ran against really flattered her form in their subsequent starts.

R2 – TB – Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

Janszoon - Tried and True – Dowayla

This is a rather wide-open handicap, with no standout. Janszoom was victorious last week over this trip when beating fellow competitor, Tried and True. He seems to have found his ideal distance, 2000m, having a win and a second from three tries, his second coming in his maiden last year. There isn’t much speed in the race either, and Janszoon is one of few who likes to run forwardly placed. Tried and True, the son of Medaglia d’Oro, is my second choice. He has placed in his last two starts and is just a consistent horse. Round out with Dowayla, who gets the mount of the ingenious Christophe Soumillon. While her last start on dirt wasn’t exceptional, she is normally a solid runner, who will hopefully get an ideal ride despite being drawn a bit wide in gate 13.

R3 – TB – Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

Thegreatcollection – Wild Dude - Layl

Thegreatcollection has turned over a new leaf this season, running first, second and third in three starts thus far. He can handle the distance and the dirt, and in what looks like a relatively weak field, should do well here. Wild Dude finally drops down in class to a distance he can actually manage, 1900m being too far a stretch in his last trip. With the cutback in class and distance, he should improve here.  Kimbear starts for the first time in Dubai, having previously run in the United States. Layl is a consistent performer in Dubai, running for previous years against some very strong competition. With the lack of scope in this field, he should put in a solid effort.

R4 – TB – Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

Born to Be Alive – Leishlaa – Light the Lights

Born to be Alive has only ever been out of the money in one of six tries, his very first race, and has since been a solid performer. He should do well here, he has shown he isn’t incapable of the distance in the past, and his trainer has a decent record from limited starts in Dubai. Leishlaa won a local Turkish G2 at this distance last year, and though didn’t duplicate that effort in his most recent start, fits in well with the level of company here, while also getting weight from competitors. Despite trainer Mike de Kock emphasizing his first carnival runners were unlikely to do well due to lack of fitness, Light the Lights ran well last week. De Kock is continuing to race his horses fit, so LTL may need another, but this is on the path to a victory down the line.

R5 – TB – Dubawi Stakes – G3 – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

Reynaldothewizard – Muarrab - Comicas

Reynaldothewizard is a legend, and he has won the past three years. I think I’ve tried to go against him the past three years as well, but I have finally caved. Will he beat me as a 12yo? Likely. But if I play against him and he wins, am I really that dumb? Likely. He is just one incredible horse who has been carefully looked after by trainer Satish Seemar, and hopefully he will have it in him to win again today. Muarrab is already a listed winner this season over the course, so in all likelihood he will put in a strong showing here, ultimately with the G1 Golden Shaheen as his target. Comicas likely needed his last start when second to Muarrab, but he was a strong second in last year’s rendition of the G1 Golden Shaheen, and one can assume he is on track for a second attempt as well.

R6 – TB – Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Turf

Faatinah – Kananee – Van Der Decken

Not many Australians make the trip to Dubai, but Faatinah does for trainer David Hayes. As their turf sprint form is so superior in the southern hemisphere, it’s likely that this Shadwell horse will be first past the post. Kananee, a Godolphin horse, has raced five times and won four starts. He was only ever out of the money when running at Ascot, which could do any horse in. If he maintains his consistency he will likely be right there with them at the end. Round out with Van Der Decken, the Appleby-trained son of Dutch Art. He’s not the strongest horse but he does tend to offer a good closing kick.

R7 – TB – Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

Hornsby – Top Score - Hawkesbury

Hornsby, the son of Dubawi, was victorious in his last trip going just a hair shorter at Meydan, though he has won at the current distance before so it should be no problem. Top Score has done well at Meydan in the past and should bounce back off of his European form here.  Finally, Hawkesbury won his last start in listed company at Abu Dhabi.

Dubai World Cup Carnival 2018 - Night 1

Dubai World Cup – First Night Selections

And we’re baaaaaack! Carnival season begins officially on Thursday, and I have attempted to tackle the first day of the season. Best of luck to everyone!

1: PA – Al Maktoum Challenge R1 – G1 – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

RB Torch – Darius Du Paon - Paddy’s Day

I’ll take RB Torch for the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge. He comes in off of a victory in a G2 at Meydan over the same distance back in December where he won easily by 5.5 lengths. Follow him up with US-based horse Paddy’s Day, who is a G1 winner over this distance in the United States. He most recently flopped over the turf at Abu Dhabi, but returning to the dirt, he should be happier. Finish off with the talented Darius Du Paon, who was a winner in his last start, but is relatively inexperienced over dirt. He’s never out of the money, which bodes well for his chances.

2: TB – Longines Ladies  La Grande Classique – Handicap – 1000m(5F) – Turf

Ertijaal – Waady – Hit the Bid

Ertijaal lays over the field in this contest, returning for the first time since running third in the Al Quoz Sprint last year. He returned off the same race into the same conditions last year and won easily, and he should replicate that this year. Waady, another Shadwell horse, is my second choice, entering off a third in a listed race at Ascot in October when training under John Gosden, now being with Doug Watson. He has run well against quality horses such as Profitable in group company in Europe in the past. Hit the Bid to round out my selections, second by a neck to Take Cover, who finished the 2017 season strong with three consecutive stakes victories.

3: TB – Longines Conquest Classic – Handicap – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

Ply – Etijaah - Frankyfourfingers

I love the idea of Ply trying dirt for the first time. Being a son of Dubawi, he should by all means handle the surface. He’s coming in off of three consecutive victories at Kempton over the all-weather, and should have no problem with the distance.  Next I’ll go with Etijaah, who comes in off a listed win at Meydan in the Entisar, which he won by six lengths. Round out with the perennial classic Frankyfourfingers, who won’t necessarily get a clean lead, his ideal running style, but will definitely put in a worthy effort.

4: TB – Singspiel Stakes – G3 – 1800m(9F) – Turf

Benbatl – Opal Tiara – Bay of Poets

There is a clear lack of speed in this race, but despite that, I settled on Benbatl. He’s shown a lot of talent but hasn’t necessarily lived up to expectations, so hopefully he can find his best form in Dubai. Opal Tiara is a bit of a price but does have some natural speed, which should place her well here.  She is a consistent group performer and this should be in her range of possibilities. Bay of Poets rounds out my selections with a victory over the distance, and despite the third-string Godolphin red cap, seems to be more consistent than Emotionless.

5: TB – Al Maktoum Challenge R1 – G2 - 1600m(8F) – Dirt

Thunder Snow – North America– Cosmo Charlie

A competitive field here in the first round of the Al Maktoum Challenge. I had to select Thunder Snow, who was so successful here last year when taking the 2000 Guineas and UAE Derby. He has already proven himself on the surface here, though his quirks may get the best of him. He’s had plenty of time since his last start, a dismal showing, and with the World Cup as the target, look forward to a big 2018 Carnival season from him. North America was hugely succesfful at Meydan last year, winning four consecutive starts before a poor effort in the G2 Godolphin Mile. He has had the year to recoup and I am sure his connections are hopeful heading into the 2018 season. Cosmo Charlie is another successful horse over the surface as well, though likely not as talented as the two I have chosen above him. He’s had a couple of runs so far this season, and looks to be a live Carnival contender.

6: TB – Handicap – 1400m(7F) – Turf

Rehana – Steady Pace – Noah from Goa

Rehana enters off a fourth-place effort in a G2 at Newmarket. Her connections thought highly enough of her to run her in G1 company a couple of times, and she’s now a four-year-old, so it’s curious they’ve kept her in training rather than retire her to breed, they obviously think she’s capable of something more. Steady Pace from the Godolphin contingent was a winner in his last start at Chelmsford at the end of September. He seems to always give it his all and he has two wins and a third from five tries at the distance. Mike de Kock noted that his horses could all use a run, but despite that, he has expressed so much enthusiasm about his runners for this year’s Carnival. Noah from Goa is no exception, and he’s a solid enough horse who is a G1 winner in his home country of South Africa.

7: TB – Handicap – 2410m(10F) – Turf

Golden Wood - Walton Street – Best Solution

Golden Wood… I will not repeat this mistake again. He took this race last year off of similar form, and seems to be even a bit better this year. With Christophe Soumillon returning to the irons, he will definitely be one to watch out for. Walton Street from the Godolphin horses is my second choice. He has a good draw, gate 6, and is very lightly raced. This will only be his fourth start, but he has shown some talent since debuting last year. This is a wide-open field, so why not choose the promising youngster? It’s not always you see sons of Kodiac running at 10 furlongs, but hey, why not? Best Solution has already proven he can run well at the distance, and he enters off of a large class drop. He’s in with a very solid chance.