Super Saturday at Meydan

It's finally here! Super Saturday.  

R1: G3 Mahab Al Shimaal – 1200m(6F) – Dirt - $350,000

8 Drafted – 6 Thammin – 4 Lavaspin

Drafted is the standout for me in this race. He was a strong winner in his last, and probably should have won the one prior had he not entirely missed the break. That would have put him on a three-race win streak. Fortunately for him, there’s plenty of speed here to suit his terrific turn of foot at the end of the race. Thammin was a good winner of the listed Jebel Ali Sprint in his last start, first attempt on the dirt. Round out with Lavaspin for Satish Seemar who is coming in off a three-race win streak. He likes to run forwardly placed, but with other speed in the race and a step up in class it could be a challenge for him to hit the wire in front, will stay for the board.

R2: Listed – Al Bastakiya – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt - $300,000

13 Estihdaaf – 10 Grecko – 3 Divine Image

A really difficult race to analyze here. It’s relatively competitive, but the better horses have rotten draws. Estihdaaf broke a hair slow last time but was benefited by an inside post and rushed forward to secure a good trip. He isn’t so lucky here from gate 13, and he’s likely to have to settle outside in a non-ideal spot if that scenario happens again.  Grecko put in an excellent run last time under top weight after a long layoff, having not run since June the year prior, and transferring stables, and multiple countries. Unfortunately, as a southern hemisphere 3yo he is still carrying top weight in the field, but he should be fitter in this start. Frankie Dettori gets the mount here, which ensures that Grecko will be given every chance from gate 10. Divine Image won the G3 UAE Oaks in her last start a couple of weeks ago, but wheels back quickly here to face the boys. She was a bit of a headcase in her first two starts in Meydan, which is worrisome. Still, she’s incredibly talented naturally.  She gets 4 kilos from her last start, and 2 from the boys here, which will be beneficial to her. However, regular jock William Buick is off her and replaced by Brett Doyle who is making the 53 kilos, which is interesting.

R3: G3 – And al Sheba Turf Sprint – 1200m(6F) – Turf - $350,000

7 Mazzini – 9 Blue Point – 1 Ekhtiyaar

Going to try to turn the tables on Blue Point’s favoritism with Mazzini, who has won his last four starts. He’s done very well in the Fawzi Nass barn and looks the part every morning on the track. Even despite missing the break in his last start, taking him out of his general forwardly-placed run style, he got up to win by 2.5 lengths.  Blue Point was obviously superbly impressive in the G2 Meydan Sprint a few weeks ago, making him the clear favorite here as he’s already a G1 winner as well. Appleby has been on fire, this is Blue Point’s race to lose, but worth a shot beating him here. Round out with Ekhtiyaar for Shadwell and Doug Watson. He was a very sound winner in his last start, winning over the trip by 5.25 lengths, and could hit the board here. I’d like to add Hit the Bid for those playing exotics at home (‘Merica) as well.

R4: G3 – Burj Nahaar – 1600m(8F) – Dirt - $350,000

7 Moqarrab – 1 Muntazah – 4 Good Curry

Going with the outsider of the Shadwell horses, Moqarrab. Moqarrab put in a very strong performance for his first dirt start here a couple weeks ago, flying from the back late to miss the wire by a short head to Rodaini. The extra furlong in trip will help him here, and look for him to cross the wire in front. Muntazah was  excellent in his last start, the G3 Firebreak Stakes, winning by 4.5 easy lengths over a good field. While I’m picking against him for the sake of price, he will be hard to beat and is the chose one of the Shadwell triplet. Good Curry, one of two Turkish horses at the meet, ran a good fourth beaten three in his Meydan debut on Valentine’s Day. That was over six furlongs, and the stretch out in trip is ideal for him as his Turkish G1 wins have come over 1500m, and a second in a G1 over 2200m.

R5: G2 – Dubai City of Gold – 2410m(12F) – Turf - $300,000

5 Spotify – 7 Prince of Arran – 2 Old Persian

As there isn’t any other proven speed in the race, Spotify should be able to make the lead and set his own fractions – which will leave him quite dangerous. James Doyle slows down the pace and it’s Spotify’s race to lose. Prince of Arran was quite the world traveler last season, running third in the Melbourne Cup before heading to Sha Tin where he got quite unlucky in trip and ran mid-pack. He looks fresh and is fully capable of the distance, and travel clearly does not bother him either. Round out with Old Persian who was a multiple G2 winner last year over the distance. He actually beat Cross Counter, eventual Melbourne Cup winner, in August at York but was last spotted running an average race over a bit further at Doncaster. He returns to his ideal trip here and should be very competitive with William Buick in the irons.

R6: G1 – Al Maktoum Challenge R3 – 2000m(10F) – Dirt - $600,000

6 Dolkong – 2 Thunder Snow – 3 New Trails

A thrilling edition of the final leg of the Maktoum Challenge, with last year’s Dubai World Cup winner Thunder Snow returning to the track. I’m going to play against him and take the Korean horse Dolkong on top after his 9.5 length romp last week. A very impressive race, he was an easy winner and may be able to beat Thunder Snow here. Thunder Snow obviously has a superb record but banking on him needing a start prior to the World Cup and using this more as prep than as a goal. Round out with New Trails who was flying late to run second to North America last out. He steps up another 100 meters here, and he’s clearly been coming into his own on the dirt in Dubai.

R7: G1 – Jebel Hatta – 1800m(9F) – Turf - $400,000

9 Dream Castle – 1 Majestic Mambo – 4 Century Dream

Dream Castle is a deserving favorite for Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. He’s been dominant in his last two starts at Meydan, winning both with ease. He’s likely to settle mid-pack and if he doesn’t get in trouble with traffic he’ll be able to close strong at the end. Majestic Mambo makes his Dubai debut for Mike de Kock, and he’s been training very well. This is a hard ask but he has every chance to hit the board. Finally, Simon Crisford’s Century Dream was a good second to Mythical Magic in the G2 Zabeel Mile after being forwardly placed. Another horse worth a mention out of that race is Wootton, who unleashed a lightning quick turn of foot to land fourth there.

Dubai World Cup Carnival Night 9

R2: Meydan Classic – Listed – 1600m(8F) – Turf

5 Good Fortune – 11 Golden Jaguar – 1 Irish Trilogy

Tricky field without a clear standout in this race. Good Fortune was a solid winner last out over seven furlongs at Meydan for Godolphin. Very likely the blue dominance continues here, though I am slightly wary of his lack of a run between the Dubai Trophy and now. Golden Jaguar was hyper impressive in his first two starts, winning up the hill at Jebel Ali then taking the Meydan Classic Trial with a wide trip and impressive turn of foot in his last start. Round out with Irish Trilogy, who came out of the same Golden Jaguar race and was coming on strong at the end.

R3: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

8 Bochart – 3 Mystique Moon - 6 Thegreatcollection

I have the slightest inkling that speed will be king on the dirt tonight at Meydan. Unfortunately there isn’t much to look at in this field, and Bochart’s last two runs have not been his best. He faded in his last attempt and missed the start two back. He breaks from gate 10 here and will hopefully be able to get inside and set his on fractions, which would be ideal. Mystique Moon is the other speedy horse in the race for trainer Doug Watson, and though he last ran at Jebel Ali it was a very nice race, crossing the wire in front by 5.5 lengths. Thegreatcollection has run second in his last two starts, both times to Capezzano. He typically sits mid-pack and launches a run in the stretch.

R4: G3 Nad al Sheba Trophy – 2810m(14F) – Turf

7 Brundtland - 5 Suspicious Mind – 1 Ispolini

Brundtland returns to the races for the first time since the end of October for Charlie Appleby and Godolphin. Last year he was first in two G3s over the 1m4f to 1m7f in France, and a listed race over a mile and a half as well. He seems to be a really promising stayer for Appleby and his the top pick of the Godolphin horses here. Suspicious Mind ran a solid second to Ispolini in his last start, and one can’t help but root for a Denmark-bred to upset the sea of blue. Round out with the aforementioned Ispolini, who has been very on form here in Dubai.

R5: Listed Curlin Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

3 Dolkong – 4 Saltarin Dubai – 1 Galvanize

The Korean Dolkong is my top selection here. He was a good third in his last start to Saltarin Dubai, and he’s been training well at Meydan. Saltarin Dubai of course is next up, his speed will be key here. Round out with Galvanize for Doug Watson who has been running against the dominant Capezzano and should get a bit of a break here. He also runs forwardly placed, which is ideal.

R6: Handicap – 1400m(7F) – Turf

2 Mubtasim – 10 On the Warpath – 8 Wasim

Mubtasim was a very impressive winner in his last start, first time in the blue, when setting the pace and scoring over the same trip. If he replicates that effort, he should best this field. However, Buick hops off of Mubtasim in favor of On the Warpath, who has been on the board in his last three starts, but hasn’t found the winner’s circle since 2017. He’s been running on strong in his last couple of starts, and cuts back a furlong to return to this sprint distance. Wasim was second in a listed race at Abu Dhabi a couple of weeks ago, and the switch back to turf from the dirt seems to have suited him. I think he will get up to hit the board here.

R7: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

4 Baroot – 9 Desert Fire – 14 Peri Lina

Baroot has run very well in his last two starts, flying at the end to nab third one back. He adds another furlong in distance, which will likely suit his late-running style. He may get there just in time for the wire. Desert Fire was no match for Nordic Lights in his last start, but returns here to the distance of his most recent victory under Pat Cosgrave. He’s a versatile horse and may be able to dictate the pace here, if his stablemate Mountain Hunter is not doing so already. Peri Lina, Turkish favorite, was a good third in her last start, the G2 Balanchine Stakes. This is a big ask of her, but if she breaks well she’s worth a shot in gate 2.  

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 8

R1: Handicap – 1400m(7F) – Dirt

8 Bochart – 4 – Nine Below Zero - 12 Moqarrab

Bochart had a rough race one back when completely taken out of his normal running style, on the lead, by stumbling at the start. Assuming he breaks well today he will likely go straight to the lead and have the chance to redeem himself. Nine Below Zero steps up in trip here but will benefit from the inside draw and was only beaten 2.5 lengths in his last start, running on well. Shadwell’s Moqarrab breaks wide in gate 12 here but contests dirt for the first time. The lightly raced son of Speightstown should take to the surface and chase the leaders, and his hardest challenge will be being primed off the layoff, having not run since September of last year.

R2: Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Turf

4 Legendary Lunch – 6 Dream Today – 5 Ekhtiyaar

Trainer Fawzi Nass has seen success sprinting at Meydan this season with the likes of Mazzini, and Legendary Lunch looks primed to fire today. He won his last start in a listed race over a furlong longer at Abu Dhabi, and he’s been in the money three times already this season. Dream Today ran well to finish third to Mazzini in his last start, beaten only four lengths after winning his debut at Meydan on January 1^st. Complete the trio with Ekhtiyaar for Shadwell and Doug Watson, who rana good third of fourteen on his Dubai debut at the beginning of January, and Jim Crowley returns to the irons.

R3: G3 – Dubai Millennium Stakes – 2000m(10F) – Turf

6 Oasis Charm – 7 Team Talk – 3 Spotify

Strong chance this race will be won by Godolphin.

R4: G3 – UAE Oaks – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

4 Divine Image – 10 Silva – 7 Starry Eyes

Goes without saying that Divine Image was the most impressive horse in her last start. Completely missing the break, she spotted the field 10 lengths and absolutely flew home to run second. She gets a clean break this time and the others are toast. Distance shouldn’t be too much of an issue with her. Silva was a super impressive winner of the UAE 1000 Guineas when smashing the field by 9.75 lengths, but the outside draw and the chance that Divine Image will break clean makes her a second choice for me, as well as being a daughter of sprinter supreme Kodiac.  Close with Starry Eyes, the daughter of Animal Kingdom who was fifth to Silva in her last start, and will likely relish the increase in distance.

R5: G2 Zabeel Mile – 1600m(8F) – Turf

6 Wootton – 8 Century Dream – 7 Marinaresco

Wootton tackles Meydan for the first time with new conditioner Charlie Appleby after a successful 2018 season that saw him a G3 winner and G1 placed. He’s in off a layoff which will be tough but if Charlie has him right, he relishes the distance and should prove a formidable opponent here. Century Dream runs for Simon Crisford after a 2018 season that also saw him a G3 winner and G1 placed, including most recently in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in October to champion Roaring Lion. He may need this start. Round out with South African warrior Marinaesco, who was last seen running ninth beaten just 5.5 lengths after a year off, including the lengthy isolation process of shipping out of South Africa.

R6: Handicap – 1600m(8F) - Turf

7 Above n Beyond – 14 Completion - 13 Bedouin’s Story

A murky race here with no clear winner – going with Above N Beyond who ran well in his last start to finish second by 1.5L. Next up, Completion tackles Dubai for the first time for Charlie Appleby, being a decent handicap horse abroad. He breaks from the seven hole and will likely race up front. Finally, Bedouin’s Story, who was fourth in that same race but ran on well to be beaten just 2.5L. Big concern with him is that he breaks from gate 14.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 7

R2: G2 Meydan Sprint – 1000m(5F) – Turf

1 Blue Point – 5 Faatinah – 2 Portamento

Hard to imagine the G1 winner Blue Point losing tonight after a layoff since running third at York in the Nunthorpe.He was an emphatic winner of the G1 King’s Stand at Royal Ascot this past summer over the distance, and he was second in this race last year when losing by a head to Ertijaal. He is just a grade above the rest here. Faatinah has had two solid runs here in Dubai, and was beaten just 1.75L in his last start to the very good sprinter Mazzini. He looks to run well again here. Round out with Portamento for Ali Al Rayhi who is cutting back in distance to 1000m after a few tries at 1400m. If he breaks well and is forwardly placed he will likely be able to hold on to show.  

R3: G3 Firebreak Stakes – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

5 Kimbear – 1 Heavy Metal – 6 Janoobi

Kimbear, though beaten nine lengths by North America last out, is a very solid horse. After Heavy Metal’s poor race last out, it would be nice to imagine that Kimbear will have every opportunity to beat him if he breaks sharp enough under Pat Dobbs. Despite Heavy Metal’s oddly poor showing last start, if he rebounds here with a clean break from the one hole, he’ll be a very game horse. Round out with Mike de Kock’s Janoobi, who is a wildcard here, trying the dirt for the first time after a late entry into the race.

R4: Conditions – Meydan Trophy – 1900m(9.5F) – Turf

4 Art du Val – 5 Bila Shak – 11 Emma Point

Art du Val is a son of the highly talented No Nay Never, who has a win and a second from two starts thus far. He missed a victory in a listed race at Deauville by 1.5 lengths back in October and one can assume has has matured since then for Charlie Appleby. He will certainly be game here though he break a bit far outside in gate 10. Bila Shak, a son of Scat Daddy, was a good winner last out for Fawzi Nas going 1800m at Meydan. He has Oisin Murphy in the irons, who has been on fire, and will get a nice trip if he can avoid trouble breaking from the rail with a running style that suggests he will be away slowly. Round out with Emma Point who finally tries turf for the first time for Marco Botti. This is definitely the preferred surface if the pedigree is any indication, and she can be expected to improve after her last flogging on the dirt.

R5: G2 Balanchine Stakes – 1800m(9F) – Turf

 6 Poetic Charm – 3 Peri Lina – 5 Furia Cruzada

Poetic Charm returned in great shape when winning the G2 Cape Verdi in her last start here by four lengths. An easy victory for her, and in this small field she will likely remain on top. I’m going to give the Turkish Peri Lina another chance here, though she stretches out in distance which will be a challenge. She was quite the special horse in her home country and it would be lovely to see her put in a big effort here. Round out with Furia Cruzada who was third in the Cape Verdi and might replicate the effort here.

R6: Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

9 Lavaspin – 5 Victory Wave – 1 Good Curry

Lavaspin for Satish Seemar has been steadily rising through the ranks, with two consecutive victories. He breaks from gate 2 and likes to run on the lead, which will be very important here. It’ll be interesting to see Godolphin’s Victory Wave try dirt for the first time here. Not sure why the son of Distorted Humor out of an A P Indy mare has been selected for a sprint, as he would probably benefit from going a bit further, but the lack of pedigrees suited for dirt in this field might just give him an edge over the rest of them. Finally, Good Curry debuts at Meydan. The Turkish horse is another invader from the country who is a multiple G1 winner. It’s always interesting to see how the Turkish form translates to the dirt but as he hasn’t started since October he will be fresh here.

R7: Handicap – 2410m(12F) – Turf

4 Sharpalo – 1 Astronomer- 3 Zaman

Sharpalo has been on the edge of a victory in his past two starts, flying late to get beaten just a neck over the distance on the 24^th of January. This is his opportunity in a weaker field to win, and he’s set up well to do it with a nice gate. Astronomer wasn’t his best in his last start, his first time for De Kock since transferring from Ballydoyle, but he is coming right and if he goes straight to the lead or near it he should run well. He’s one paced but if that pace is in front, he is very competitive. The outside draw may hinder his chances. Round out with Godolphin’s Zaman who was third over 2000m when running here two weeks ago, beaten just ¾ of a length. He stretches out here and was second at the distance in a listed race in France back in September.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 6

R1  – Maiden – 1400m(7F) – Dirt

7 Midnight Sands – 9 Town Bee – 8 Tabarak

A non-Carnival maiden to start the racing tonight. Going with Midnight Sants in the opener. Midnight Sands is a son of Speightstown trained by Doug Watson. He has raced three times in Europe, and up to his last race at Doncaster in July he was in training with James Given. Good news is he runs on the lead which is preferable on this track. Next up I’ll take the other Doug Watson trainee Town Bee, who had a lackluster debut at Meydan on the 5^th of January. A full brother to winner of the G1 Met Mile Bee Jersey, he has the pedigree for this. He will just have to show more than he did in his last start. Round out with Tabarak, a son of Quality Road who was eighth beaten 4.75 last week to impressive winner Golden Jaguar. He likely needed the start, look for him to improve here, and he will obviously take to the surface change to dirt.

R2 – Handicap – 3200m(16F) – Turf

6 Dubhe – 5 Speedo Boy – 1 Red Galileo

A short field for a long distance in the second at Meydan. Going with Dubhe, a son of Dubawi for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. Though he hasn’t contested this distance thus far, he does seem to be capable of it, and though beaten well in his Meydan debut a couple of weeks ago, he was coming in off of a seven month break, so he likely needed one to get fit. Take Speedo Boy next, the occasional hurdler whom has won twice and finished second twice from four tries at the distance. He too ran a lackluster race when going 2810m at Meydan three weeks ago, but as he has been successful over the distance in the past, no doubt he can handle it. I’ll round out with Red Galileo, who has been rather disappointing in his Meydan career, but does have two showings from three starts at the distance and gets the expert hands of Soumillon guiding him, in a race that should be quite tactical.

R3 – G3 – UAE 2000 Guineas – 1600m(8F)

6 Moshaher – 5 Walking Thunder – 1 Estihdaaf

Attempting to turn the tables on the highly impressive Walking Thunder, by taking the Doug Watson trained Moshaher in the UAE 2000 Guineas. This son of Goldencents was incredibly impressive when winning on debut on the 5^th of January at Meydan, and seems to be very talented. I’ll take Walking Thunder in second who has won his three starts by a cumulative 18.75 lengths and is certainly the one to beat here. Round out with Godolphin’s Estihdaaf who ran a good second in his last start over 1900m. I’m afraid he is going too short here and would prefer the UAE Derby distance instead.

R4 – Handicap – 1800m(9F) – Turf

3 Baroot – 4 Nordic Lights – 7 Walk in the Sun

Going against the Godolphin grain and selected Baroot on top. He ran a deceptively good race last week at Meydan when running on well to finish just 5.5L off the winner in a 1600m handicap. The step up in trip should suit him here. I had Nordic Lights on top in hist last race when he faded to second after setting the pace throughout, and I still think he is capable of a solid run here. He drops back ever so slightly in distance and Buick returns to the irons. To show I have Phoenix Thoroughbred’s Walk in the Sun, a lightly raced son of Street Sense who has been running in stakes company since Royal Ascot when he was sixth to Expert Eye.

R5 – G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

6 North America – 7 Cosmo Charlie – 5 New Trails

I was really tempted to pick Cosmo Charlie in R2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge. He has won his last two races at Meydan easily, annexing the listed Entisar Stakes last out by 7.25L. However, this is a step up in class for him may be too much, and he won’t be able to utilize his speed effectively as North America break inside of him from gate 6, Cosmo from gate 7, and that inside draw will likely allow North America to take the lead. Luckily for owner Ramzan Kadyrov, president of Chechnya, he owns both of those horses. Fill the trifecta out with New Trails, also a very impressive winner in his last start when taking a handicap at Meydan by 10.5 lengths. Prior to that he ran second to Cosmo Charlie in the Entisar.

R6 – TB – Handicap – 1200m(6F) -Turf

11 Alfredo Arcano – 7 Mazzini – 2 Intisaab

I lack any profound thoughts on this race. A good few of the horses here came out of a blanket finish in a handicap over the distance on January 10^th, Alfredo Arcano being one of them and losing by a neck. HE’s getting a little bit of weight from the others, so perhaps that may give him an edge here. Mazzini was a good winner in his last start on the 24^th, and is coming in off three consecutive victories, all by a neck. Round out with Intisaab, who was well beaten in a G2 here on the 24^th stepping up a furlong in trip, and returns to his ideal distance here. Prior to that race he was in the money four consecutive times.

R7 – Handicap – 1400m(7F) – Turf

2 Alfolk – 8 Race Day – 10 Good Effort

Mike de Kock trainee Alfolk steps up in distance from 5F to 7F here, and though he has never contested it, his breeding certainly suggests he should adapt to it. The son of Lohnro has yet to realize his South African form as graded stakes winner here in Dubai, but when he reclaims it he should at the least be competitive at this handicap level, and the step up in trip may do the trick. Next up is Race Day, who was nabbed just before the wire in his last start here to fellow Godolphin trainee Desert Fire. He drops a furlong in this race which should help him.  Finally, I’ll take Good Effort, who was disappointing in his Meydan debut but a useful horse in England this past year, placing in a listed stakes over the distance at Newbury in September.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 5

R2: UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

7 Divine Image – 15 Al Hayette –  9 Razeena

Divine Image was a very impressive winner for Godolphin upon debut in mid-December when beating a field at Chelmsford by six lengths.  She’s a daughter of Scat Daddy who has had success on every surface, so no doubt she’ll have the chance to be successful here. She is likely going off the international favorite, but for good reason. Next up is Al Hayette, who has won two here at Meydan quite impressively. The daughter of Union Rags has demonstrated a strong turn of foot, and has beaten third selection, Razeena, two races ago in the latter’s debut and singular race thus far. Al Hayette’s biggest challenge will come in the draw, which is gate 15. Razeena is a daughter of Malibu Moon trained by Doug Watson, and she should improve here in her second start.  

R3: Meydan Classic Trial – Conditions – 1400m(7F) – Turf

13 Woven - 5 Golden Jaguar - 15 Nashirah

Woven was a good second at Meydan last out over the distance for trainer David Simcock, and should be competitive again here. Golden Jaguar debuted at Jebel Ali for Phoenix Ladies Syndicate and won impressively. Jebel Ali is a unique course with an uphill stretch run that rivals Warren Hill. A horse that debuts over it and wins is either very good, or just very much better than a bad bunch. We will hope for the first option. A son of Animal Kingdom, he should take to the surface and extra two furlongs no problem. Again, his biggest fault is that he has been drawn in gate 15. Round out with Godolphin’s Nashirah, a daughter of Dubawi who was a good second to Al Hayette in her last start, taking the lead in the stretch before being overtaken by the winner.

R4: G3 Al Shindagha Sprint – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

4 Drafted – 1 Ibn Malik – 5 My Catch

Drafted was very impressive when second in the G3 Dubawi Stakes last out, and he was absolutely flying at the end. He’s two wins and second from three tries at this distance for trainer Doug Watson, and I can only see him improving that record. Ibn Malik was third in his last start, a handicap over five furlongs at the beginning of January. He made up a lot of ground in the final furlong, so the benefit of an additional furlong here should be a big bonus for him. Round out with My Catch, who was third in the G3 Dubawi Stakes. I don’t think he is better than the others, but with the deferral of Raven’s Corner he certainly could be the best of the rest. An honorary mention to Steve Asmussen’s Switzerland, who is actually a two-time G3 winner last year, but had his form tail off at the end of the season.

R5: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

4 Honorable Treasure – 1 Gold Town - 8 Thegreatcollection

A big, competitive field here that is tricky to navigate. A lot of speed in the race, with Bocharat and Galvanize potentially locking horns for the lead. I think that sets up well for a mid-pack or closing style horse to get up to win. I actually didn’t think too much of Honorable Treasure in his last start, but he proved me wrong when closing from off the pace to finish second to the Swedish I Kirk. Gold Town probably needed his last start, and should improve here as it’s the second up after a long, long layoff and he was so talented last year. Finally, I’m going to try turning the tables on Capezzano with the horse that was runner-up in that race, Thegreatcollection.

R6: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

6 Key Victory – 4 Astronomer – 8 Oasis Charm

Key Victory actually ran a pretty good race when fourth of a Godolphin superfecta in his last start at Meydan. He wasn’t beaten much, just 1.25 lengths, and he was successful over this trip at Newmarket back in May. I think he will improve here. Astronomer, recently acquired from the Coolmore Partners and Markus Jooste by Mike de Kock, makes his first start since transferring from Ballydoyle where he had four wins from six starts. Mike thinks the horse should run well and will have room for improvement throughout the season. Round out with Oasis Charm, who hasn’t run since May, but was victorious twice over in his only two starts of last year. He’s coming in off a long layoff, but Charlie will have him ready for a good run.

R7: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

15 Bedouin’s Story – 5 Seniority – 2 Baroot

Bedouin’s Story had a really tough trip in his last start at Meydan, having to navigate a daunting path home in the stretch and checking late. With a wide draw in 12, he’ll not have to navigate from the inside, and will likely have a clearer trip. Seniority, owned by The Queen, ran a good race in his last start when fourth in a handicap over 7F here at Meydan. He was toward the rear of the pack coming out of the turn and closed well. The additional furlong and potentially being more forwardly place will benefit this horse. Baroot had a solid win in his last start for trainer Mike de Kock here, but I think there are others who will improve more than he will in this race.

Dubai World Cup Carnival Night 4

Dubai World Cup Carnival Night 4

R1: Handicap – 1000m(5F) – Turf

1 Faatinah –2 Hit the Bid -9  Mazzini

I have faith that after his impressive performance last out, Australian raider Faatinah will reign supreme in tonight’s opening race. Hit the Bid had an impressive performance as well but likely as he was multiple lanes on the inside away from Faatinah’s late-closing bid, likely didn’t get the opportunity to throw down competitively in the end. I still think Faatinah is likely the superior sprinter of the two. European Mazzini is my next selection, coming in off a string of wins under Oisin Murphy back whilst in the yard of James Fanshawe. He debuts now in the stable of Fawzi Nass, and he seems like he has a decent chance here, though he may need a race off the break.

R2: Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions – 3yo only –  1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

1 Grecko – 6 Estihdaaf – 3 Victory Command

Likely the most intriguing horse that Kenny McPeek brought over for the Carnival is the Argentinian import Grecko, who hasn’t been since winning a G1 Juvenile race at Palermo in Argentina in June. Whilst he is definitely up against it with the layoff and the travel. Estihdaaf will get another chance for me after a plodding attempt in his Meydan debut on the turf on January 10^th. He switches over to dirt here, which he is fitting for a son of Arch out of a Ghostzapper mare.  Round out with Mark Johnston’s Victory Command, who I was a bit hesitant to pick over the Phoenix thoroughbreds entrant, but figured it is worth a shot. While Johnston has a rather dismal batting average of winners to runners here in Dubai (batting at about 3%), this horse is already a listed winner on the turf back in England, and the surface change as well as distance may beG2  a challenge for him, but one he may very well step up to.

R3: G2 Al Rashidiya – 1800m(9F) – Turf

3 Dream Castle – 1 Blair House – 9 Deauville

A Godolphin-heavy race here, and I’ll take Saeed bin Suroor’s Frankel gelding Dream Castle on top. He was impressive in his last start when unleashing a furious turn of foot en route to winning the G3 Singspiel Stakes here at Meydan. Another effort like that will be hard to beat. Blair House returns to Meydan after an Australian campaign that peaked when second to Benbatl in the G1 Caufield Stakes. He was a G1 winner here last year over the distatnce, so if he returns to form he has every chance in the race. I’ll round out with ex-Coolmore Deauville, who was sent to the lead in the Singspiel and couldn’t kick home, finishing 11^th. He may have needed the start for the new connections, look for him to rebound here.

R4: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

1 Senior Investment – 5 Tried and True – 2 Aquarium

An awfully murky race, no clear standout here. I took Senior Investment for Kenny McPeek, who was last seen tackling the Marathon on the dirt Breeders’ Cup weekend and failing the test of stamina. His form has tailed off since he won the G3 Lexington Stakes back in 2017, followed by a show placing in the prolific G1 Preakness, but he should still be competitive here. Next up, Tried and True, the son of Malibu Moon who was his last start at Jebel Ali before being beaten by 10.5 lengths in a race many of his fellow competitors are coming out of today, when second to New Trails. Finally, I took the Mark Johnston trainee Aquarium, who will ideally break sharp as he has done in the past and has the potential to take to the dirt, as a product of the same sire did in the Dubai World Cup victor Animal Kingdom.

R5: G2 Al Fahidi Fort – 1400m(7F) – Turf

4 Mythical Magic – 7 D’Bai – 9 Comin’ Through

A competitive race here, Godolphin’s Mythical Magic on top for me. He ran a good second when closing last out in a listed stakes at Saint-Cloud, beaten just ¾ of a length over the distance. Prior to that he was another ¾ lengths behind the winner in second after a 315 day layoff and the ultimate gear change, gelding. Appleyby thought awfully well of him as a 3yo, competing in a G1 in France, but he didn’t live up to expectations. He definitely has room to improve here off of his last two starts. The other Appleby contender, D’Bai, is my next pick. He has been running in group company for the duration of the year, and has a couple of placings to his name, as well as G3 back in June at Haydock.  He set the record over this distance at Meydan last year, and it still holds, so he will be a strong competitor. Round out with Comin’ Through for the Aussie trainer of the World’s Best Racehorse, Chris Waller. He’s been competing in G1s in Australia and most recently in Hong Kong, but he hasn’t seen the winners circle since beating fan favorite Tom Melbourne in the G2 Tramway Stakes in September. Prior to that he won the G1 Doomben Cup over 10 furlongs, so he has a lot of credentials but I believe it will take a lot to beat the Godolphin runners.

R6: Handicap – 2410m(12F) – Turf

4 Sharpolo – 1 Bin Battuta – 3 Wadigor

The handicap that Sharpolo and Bin Battuta came out of last time was an impressive race, with Bin Battuta victorious after a clean drive up the inside rail, and another Godolphin runner in Ispolini nabbing second to subsequently win his next start. Sharpolo was third in the race and galloped out in front after having to switch outside of traffic in the stretch, so with a clear run of it here I think he may turn the tables on the Godolphin entrant. Bin Battuta was still impressive last out so it could go either way between the top two. Round out with Nicholas Bachalard’s Wadigor, who is coming in off an incredibly long layoff following his last start in a handicap at Royal Ascot in 2017 whilst in the yard of Roger Varian. He is an interesting horse here, and many question marks surround his name, though he was talented winning all three of his starts prior to his defeat in the handicap and subsequent layoff.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 3

R1: TB – Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

8 Laieth – 1  I Kirk – 5 Pop the Hood

The Godolphin runner Laieth is a lightly raced son of Dubawi for Saeed bin Suroor. He’s 4:2-1-0 lifetime, all on all weather surfaces. Most recently second by a neck at Wolverhampton, he’s a bit of a longshot here. However, he is getting 7kgs from top-rated Swedish horse and my second choice,  I Kirk, who was most recently a 5-length victor of a G3 over the distance in his home country. The weight break is too significant to overlook in this sprint. Round out with new Doug Watson transfer from the United States, Pop the Hood. He’s been competitive on the New York circuit, and while no world beater, it will be interesting to see how the older horse transitions to Dubai, coming off a break since Saratoga.

R2: Handicap – 2810m(14F) – Turf

2 Ispolini – 1 Red Galileo – 3 Appeared

Ispolini ran a good second last out to Bin Battuta on the first night of the Carnival, beaten 1.5 lengths. Bin Battuta ran one of the superior races of the Carnival thusfar, so with him out of the way, this could be Ispolini’s race to lose. Red Galileo also returns for the Godolphin continent, not seen since his 6^th place finish last year in the Gold Cup. He gets the mount of expert Christophe Soumillon, so if this eight year old is up to the task, he will be afforded every possibility. Round out with David Simcock’s Appeared, who was also seen in the same race as Ispolini a couple weeks ago. He finished impressively in that race to land a quick-closing fourth, so look for him coming at the end.

R3: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

1 Secret Ambition – 9 Cappezano – 7 Draco

Secret Ambition drops out of stakes company to enter in this handicap carrying top weight of 60kgs. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid performer and perhaps needed his last start, his first run of the season since a lackluster 10^th in the Mile on World Cup night. Cappezano is a horse that showed a lot of potential in the past, and this is his first time out of listed company as well since February of last year. The class break and 4.5kgs he’s getting from the top-rated horse in the race should benefit him, and if he breaks away sharp enough, look for him.  Draco has graduated through the ranks at Jebel Ali since being relocated from Florida, where he was most recently successful in breaking his maiden on the third try in statebred company. This is a bit of a class jump for him but since relocated to Nicholas Bachalard he has been at the top of his game, and will also be forwardly placed.

R4: G2 Cape Verdi – 1600m(8F) – Turf

7 Peri Lina - 1 Poetic Charm – 6 Mia Tesoro

Taking a chance in this race with Turkish invader Peri Lina, who is coming in off of a few solid Local G1 performances in Turkey. She’s highly competitive in Turkey, but it will be interesting to see how her form translates to Meydan. A wildcard here, but worth a shot. Poetic Charm, a half sister to good sire Teofilo, is one of three good Godolphin horses contesting the race, and likely the most competitive of the three. She had a bad race last out at Keeneland, but it’s easy to draw a line through that race and look at the rest of her form – which has been competitive in England.  Round out with Charlie Fellowes’ Mia Tesoro, whom comes in off a break since her last start, a subpar performance in a G3 over 2400m at Newmarket last out. The cut back in distance to one she is more comfortable with, having three wins from four starts over a mile, will be beneficial to her.

R5: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

4 Nordic Lights – 3 Mountain Hunter – 7 Harlan Strong

Unclear which of the five Godolphin entrants will come out on top, if any, but I went with Charlie Appleby’s Nordic Lights. A very lightly raced gelding, Nordic Lights was most recently seen running eigthth in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Prior to that he faced Roaring Lion in the G2 Dante, placing fifth. He’s since been gelded and with a long break, he may be ready to roll here. If Appleby thought he was good enough to take on Group company in England, then one can assume he showed enough potential to be an intriguing pick in this race off the change and layoff. Mountain Hunter had a few good runs at Meydan last year, winning a handicap during the Carnival and running second in his follow-up effort. He returns here under Soumillon, and it is likely he will be ready here. Perhaps it is the Americana in me but I’ll take Ken McPeek’s Harlan Strong to complete the tri. He’s not actually contested this distance before, and it seems that McPeek hasn’t really been sure of his ideal distance as he’s run everything from 1700m to 2600m in his last few starts. However, I have to give my own home team a try here and why not take it in this murky handicap, to usurp the potential Godolphin monopoly in the race

R6: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

4 Fire Away - 10 Desert Fire – 6 Muraaqeb

Taking another chance on the ex-Phipps horse who was purchased for South African connections at Fasig Tipton’s summer horses of racing age sale for $450,000 to stand at stud, with a quick jaunt at Meydan for SA’s Mike de Kock first on the agenda. It’s unclear how he will settle into his start at Meydan. He won a G3 back in the spring at Pimlico that was rained off the turf, and he followed that up with a fourth in the G3 Poker Stakes at Belmont Park behind Oscar Performance, who went on to win the G1 Woodbine Mile. Desert Fire is another very lightly raced colt for Godolphin, having just three lifetime starts, two of which resulted in wins. As an uproven entity, he is interesting here coming off of his 12 length victory at Leicester back in September. Round out with the Australian Muraaqeb, who was second by a neck in his last start at Sandown in the G3 Eclipse Stakes. He has a live chance here, and the Hayes partnership must be confident in him in order to bring him over.

Dubai World Cup Carnival 2019 - Night 2

R1: PA – G1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

12 RB Torch

R2: Dubai Trophy – 3yo – 1400m(7F) – Turf

7 Estihdaaf - 15 Dream With You –– 4 Sporting Chance

Estihdaaf, a son of Arch, ridden by Christophe Soumillon for Godolphin, is my top pick at a bit of a price here. In his most recent start of three total he broke his maiden at Leicester over the distance. His dam is a full sister to MG1W on the turf Better Lucky, so there is quality in the family that suggests this horse will continue to improve. Dream with You breaks from gate four in this race, and his trainer seems confident that the horse, who is still a maiden from six starts thus far, has a chance as he had him running in G3 company two back. Caullery has had success at Dubai in the past as well, with two wins and a second from seven starts. Close out with Sporting Chance, the probable speed of the race. He steps up a furlong in trip, and as he hasn’t run since October, I’m hoping he will need a race and be beaten as a relatively short favorite.

R3: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – 3yo – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

2 Royal Marine – 8 Giant Hero – 10 Nitro

Going to start off with a proven G1 winner here in Godolphin’s Royal Marine. A son of Raven’s Pass, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when on a synthetic surface, he’s already proven himself in top class company in France. Surely a test to see whether or not he finds the dirt suitable for an inevitable UAE Derby tilt, he’s going to be in fine form for this race. Follow him with Giant Hero, a well-bred son of Giant’s Causeway out of a daughter of G1 winner Hollywood Story. He broke his maiden impressively at Ellis Park last year for Steve Asmussen, with the runner up landing 4^th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile later in the season. Round out with Nitro, an unraced son of Candy Ride out of the Bernardini mare Secret Jewel, who was a $1.2 million Keeneland September purchase in her own right, being a half sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Shared Account and GSW Colonial Flag. He was not a particularly expensive purchase at $32,000 in Ocala, but trained by Doug Watson, he will be given every opportunity.

R4: Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Turf

2 Intisaab -- 1 Above the Rest –– 6 Roussel

Intisaab was second by a head in his last start, a listed race on the all weather at Lingfield. That was his first up off a long break, having not run since July – probably well deserved due to his extended campaign last year. He won a local G3 in Qatar in February of last year, so he should have no problem with the climate. He’s good fresh and will hopefully be ready to roll. Above the Rest drops out of multiple attempts in graded company here, and if he breaks well out of the gate should be pretty competitive. Roussel is a good looking son of Kodiac for Godolphin, and Appleby must have thought highly of him as he tried him in the Commonwealth Cup last summer. He’s been off since August and should be fresh for a good effort here.

R5: G2 – Al Maktoum Challenge R1 – 1600m(8F)

8 Gold Town – 7 Heavy Metal – 4 Muntazah

The first round of the Maktoum Challenge brings together a strong field including Heavy Metal, winner of last year’s G2 Godolphin Mile, as well as runner up Muntazah. However, I’m going to go with last year’s burgeoning star Gold Town, whom was heavily respected when heading into the UAE Derby last year, but did not turn in his best effort when fourth beaten far, and hasn’t been seen since. I think Appleby will have him right his debut here today.  Vying for the lead with Gold Town will be Heavy Metal, who makes his first start back since last year’s crowning victory. I’m banking on Gold Town’s class here, but wouldn’t be surprised to see this nine-year-old veteran returning to the winners circle.  Finish the top three out with Muntazah, who on his only dirt try in the premier Godolphin Mile last year ran second. Being a son of Dubawi this could simply be his surface of preference, so although he was beaten badly a month ago in a listed race on the turf at Abu Dhabi, settling behind the top two here he may very well be rolling at the end to nab them.

R6: Handicap – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

6 Glassy Waters – 3 New Trails – 2 Saltarin Dubai

A pretty difficult handicap here to make heads or tails of. I went with Glassy Waters as the top choice, hopefully providing jockey Hayley Turner with her first victory in the UAE. Glassy Waters is coming in off of two victories over the all weather at Lingfield and Kempton, and he is certainly bred for the dirt being a son of Distorted Humor out of a stakes winning daughter of AP Indy. Follow with New Trails, a Medaglia d’Oro gelding who has run well in his two dirt starts, a first in an 95-105 handicap at Meydan back in November, followed by a runner up effort to the talented Cosmo Charlie in a listed race on December 20. Finally, try Saltarin Dubai,  who won a handicap impressively by 5 lengths last March before giving it a go in the Dubai World Cup, a huge step up in class. He returned this season with a dull 7^th in a listed race, but may benefit from returning to handicap company. It also is worth mentioning that the other Mike de Kock runner, Light the Lights, tries dirt for the first time. His sire Western Winter was a stakes winner on the dirt, and second in the G1 Met Mile – so he may take to the surface and is worth a longshot bet.

R7: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

8 Good Effort – 11 Eshtiraak – 2 King’s Field

Really competitive field here, though Godolphin has 5 horses in the race, I’ll be taking Good Effort on top. He’s been running well recently in handicaps, and was second in a listed race at Newbury two back. He’s been doing a solid job of rising through the ranks, and if he puts in a good effort, may be victorious here at a decent price. Eshtiraak makes the trip from Australia for the Hayes partnership, and he’s been running very well in Victoria, coming off of two consecutive victories over the distance. He should be competitive here. Round out with one of Joseph O’Brien’s runners in King’s Field. The son of Kodiac drew well here in gate three and was a winner last out over the distance at Dundalk over O’Brien’s other entrant, Equitant.