Thursday, May 26, 2016

Get Your Preak On - Baltimore Experience

While the Kentucky Derby is decadent and depraved, the Preakness was a sloppy play day. The weekend began with the Black Eyed Susan on Friday, probably one of the most exciting days of racing that is headlined by a Grade 2 stakes.

My initial plan to attend the Preakness was launched back in April when my good friends came down to Lexington to see their filly, Ma Can Do It, contest a maiden special weight. She is owned by Kyle and Glenda Nagel. Though I’ve known them for just over a year, it feels as though it has been a lifetime. We met last May during the week of the Kentucky Derby as they are also good friends with the Romans, and we immediately bonded as they too were living in Boston at the time. Since then it’s been a whirlwind of fun and incredible experiences whenever we get together.

Ma finished second in that maiden special weight, a seven furlong event over the dirt. She’s run quite well in the past, third in the G1 Darley Alcibiades in her two year old season, and she ended her campaign last year with a fifth behind Songbird in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She’s a stunning daughter of Majesticperfection, big and scopey, and we have always felt that two turns is her ideal. Her two starts this year were not her best efforts as she got herself really worked up prior to the races, resulting in a poor showing as the 8-5 favorite after almost flipping in the paddock at Oaklawn earlier this year, and then in the paddock of the April race at Keeneland she was covered in sweat by the time they announced riders up. This was such a reverse from the Ma we know. In the barn, she is the gentlest horse in the Romans’ stable, and she craves human affection. She never once worked herself up last year, so her sudden change of character pre-race was disconcerting.

Dale had told Kyle that if they could calm her down and if Ma continued to train well in the weeks leading up to the Black Eyed Susan that he would enter her in the race. Luckily, she put in some great efforts in the mornings and she got the okay to ship to Pimlico, so we all came in to see her run, and support Go Maggie Go, Cherry Wine, and the rest of the Romans’ runners during the weekend.

Friday morning I woke up at 3:30am, took a quick shower, and hit the road an hour later to Louisville. My flight was direct to Baltimore out of Louisville, and I arrived in Baltimore at a little after 8am. Upon arrival, I scoured the entire airport for a bagel before I found in a distant gate with a little bagel shop, and I sat and contently munched away, waiting for the Nagels to land.

Their flight landed at 9:30am and I was greeted by Kyle, Glenda, and their daughter’s friend Hannah, who coincidentally attended Tufts while I was there and was friends with one of my close friends, though our paths never crossed. We hopped in an uber and headed to our hotel, where we met up with Kyle’s daughter Taylor and her friend Nellie. After changing out of our plane clothes to race day attire, we were on our way to Pimlico.

I had personally never been to Pimlico before, and I’ve mainly heard bad things about the facility from most of the people who have been there. However, each one of those people unanimously would agree that the Preakness is the most fun jewel of the Triple Crown. I had a great experience at the small track, though it didn’t necessarily start off that way.


When we entered, I immediately got the throwback vibe that I get whenever attending my home track of Suffolk Downs. Pimlico is an old place, full of history, which has not been renovated much. Some people may hate it and view it as decrepit, but hailing from a similar racetrack, it felt mostly homey to me.

However, after ascending the escalator to our given seats, we were a bit concerned. We were sat in the “Triple Crown Room”, but if that room had anything to do with the Triple Crown, we weren’t aware. It was a long chamber, a pale, faded pink, with absolutely no windows and TVs that seemingly were purchased shortly after the invention of the Technicolor television set. Some of them were not working. The small bar area had a very minute alcohol section, and the famous Black Eyed Susan drink was in premade pitchers, served in plastic cups. Generally speaking, I’m just thankful to be at the races and seating does not aggravate me, but this was the rare exception. The Nagels had a filly in the feature race and this was where Pimlico had decided to seat them? We couldn’t even see the track and the immediate outside area was only accessible if you had boxes!

Luckily for us, Bailey came to find our table and she brought Kyle up with her to their seats in the Jockey Club room to see if there was something that they could do. After asking why he had been assigned to the Triple Crown room with a horse in the feature, the hostess in the Jockey Club room looked taken aback and said that they had actually had a table reserved for the Nagels in the Jockey Club room, and were surprised we had not shown up yet.

We were all eager to relocate to our new digs and very pleased with them. Past the finish line on the third floor, the Jockey Club Room was a huge upgrade with an entire wall of windows looking out over the track. The seating was much better, the bar was much better, and the entire atmosphere was completely improved. As a few of the people in our party had never been to the races before, we were relieved that their first experience would not be tarnished by such a lackluster seating situation.

The Marlins Man, myself, Nick and Max

We took in the races and enjoyed each other’s company throughout the day. Kyle’s son, brother, and father showed up and the party really started. Kyle’s father, Lou, is a phenomenal man in his early eighties. He’s a pleasure to be around and has quite the history behind him. He actually used to work at the track in the past, including a stint as an exercise rider until he woefully got too big, and he reminisced about his time at the races fondly. A very fascinating man to talk to with a passion for life and the thoroughbred.

One of the most exciting racing events of the day was Ben’s Cat performance in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint. His fifth victory in the race, fourth consecutive, the crowd went wild for the ten-year-old gelding as he powered down the stretch. His trainer, King Leatherbury, is a legend in his own right. Leatherbury ranks third in all-time victories in the United States. He was a dominating figure on the Maryland circuit in the 1960s and 1970s, and he is still relevant today at 83 years old. Last year, he was inducted into the Hall of Fame after a long and worthy career.

Finally, it was time for the race we had been waiting for, the Black Eyed Susan. It's important to note that Dale won this race the previous year with Stonestreet Farm's Keen Pauline, who graced the cover of the day's program. This year, Dale had two entrants, Go Maggie Go and Ma Can Do It. I was excited to see Go Maggie Go contest the race as she put in a phenomenal effort, running fourth and just missing the jump for second last out in the G1 Kentucky Oaks. That was only her third lifetime start as she had debuted earlier this year down at Gulfstream and was a dominant maiden victor before taking the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. We had a feeling she would put in a big effort on Friday, and she did not disappoint.

Go Maggie Go and the girls on Oaks Day

Ma was another story. Sent off at odds of 50-1, it was obvious the betting public was not a believer in the big filly. However, we all were, so I played her across the board with a reasonable amount of confidence that she would put in a solid effort. We knew we would get a feel for her performance based off her pre-race antics.

We headed down to the small indoor enclosure that is the Pimlico paddock, a largely unsafe area to saddle horses in my opinion. Maggie was in gate five and Ma in gate four, so we gathered side by side. I immediately knew that Ma was going to run a big one when she was calm, cool and collected in the paddock, despite the claustrophobic enclosure and the buzz of the crowd. Petting her on the neck, I knew she had it in her. Maggie was equally relaxed with Amanda rubbing her face.

Go Maggie Go
Ma Can Do It, calm

While the horses left the paddock, I quickly snatched their Black Eyed Susan nameplates with their respective gate positions off the stalls and handed Kyle his filly’s. We followed the horses out toward the track and escaped up a staircase that led to the box area.

My heart began to pound as the fillies loaded into the gate. I was so nervous for the two, and so excited, I just could not wait. When the gates flew open they both got away cleanly. Ma managed an excellent ground-saving trip up the rail while Maggie set the pace, pressured by Kinsley Kisses, and pulled away convincingly. Ma powered down the inside  to land second in a blanket finish, and we collectively lost our minds.



There is not much more exciting than finishing 1-2 in a graded stakes race on a big day of racing, but that is exactly what Dale accomplished. With giant smiles on our faces and shouts of elation we all galloped across the track toward the winners’ circle, where a beautiful Maggie was lead in and draped in a blanket of sunflowers. In just her fourth start she is a two-time graded stakes winner, and her future looks bright. I have a feeling the Alabama at 1 ¼ miles, as I have mentioned in the past, is hers for the taking. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ma there either.

The Nagel family celebrating Ma's big effort

Equally as happy as we were for Maggie’s victory, we were for Ma’s strong second place. It’s hard to find a family nicer or more generous than the Nagels, so sharing in their happiness was easily a highlight of the weekend. Ma may still be a maiden, but she’s already amassed $192,100 in earnings. Not bad! Her future is also quite bright, and I’m sure that maiden victory is on its way. Why even run her in maiden conditions if she is going to continue running so well in graded company?
The day ended on a high note as we went out to dinner at a nice Greek restaurant. Exhausted, I decided to hit the hay early as opposed to go out.



The Preakness was ushered in by a bout of rain that did not relent for the majority of the day. Luckily for me, I was promised cover. My friend John Scheinmann had been gracious enough to connect me with a job for the day, and I was to be working as a handicapper for Pimlico in the Sky Suites, the luxury suites at the beginning of the first turn.

As I walked into the track, I was unfortunate enough to stumble upon the death of Homeboykris, the winner of the first race. The entrance to the suites was on the first turn and Homeboykris had fallen right there on his way back to the barn. When I arrived he was lying down, and I watched with a heavy heart as his distraught handlers attempted to get him to stand up. Their frantic efforts made me swiftly acknowledge that it must have been a heart attack. He passed relatively quickly in front of me.

As much sadness as I felt for the valiant animal that gave his life for the victory, I felt a larger sadness for the sport. Racing related deaths and injuries unjustly find a way to happen when the sport is in the nation’s eye, and I knew there would be much said about it by the media. It always pains me to think that people will perceive our sport not off of the beauty and excitement that it harbors, but off the much less frequent pain and grief that it may present. There is a clear misunderstanding between the general public and the racing world that unfortunately the media does an awful job of addressing. Collectively as a sport we do not do enough to establish the truth- that for every bad event that occurs in racing, there are a thousand more that would bring nothing but joy to the heart. Every sport has its villains- baseball has steroids, football has head injuries, hockey has its ridiculously sought-after fighting. Meanwhile, the goodness with which so many of these animals are treated, the bond between human and horse, and the true nature of the thoroughbred- the desire from birth to run and race one another in the fields that translates to the racetrack- all of this gets so easily overlooked and lost by the general public. As bad as the tragedy of a horse death is, the greater tragedy is the sheer number of people who perceive the sport as inherently bad, when it is far from that.

Returning to my experience. I had prepped for the day by studying the card and arranging a variety of bets to advise my suites on. I was nervous at first as I did not know exactly what the situation held in store for me, but I adjusted quickly. There were quite a few suites in the area but I would focus on the more expensive ones, which were filled with people quite inexperienced with betting on horse races. I enjoyed teaching them the basics of how to read a form and what kind of bets to make, and they ate it up. I was lucky to have very attentive audiences in each of the suites and a core group of people who continuously sought out and valued my advice and opinions. Overall, it was a very lovely day.

As the time neared for the big race, I found my way out to Preakness village in the infield. I had texted the Nagels to see where they were located, and found that they had made their way into the Stronach Tent. This luxurious tent was located past the finish line in the infield, and it felt less like a tent than a lodge in Aspen. Extravagantly decorated, the place was draped in plaid blankets, mahogany bars, old time racing memorabilia, and an assortment of antlers and artifacts. It harbored a great atmosphere.

At this point the rain was really coming down, so I lucked upon a poncho, grabbed a paddock pass, and headed out into the rain. Per tradition, horses are saddled on the turf course in front of the grandstand for the Preakness Stakes. The turf was damp and slippery, and by the time I had arrived the horses were on the course. I made my way over to the designated spot for the horse in the first gate and found the Cherry Wine squad had gathered to watch the beautiful gray colt.



Cherry Wine holds a special place in my heart. The first time I had met him was my very first visit to Lexington, Kentucky, back in October of 2013. It was just after my summer of interning in the NYRA Press Box up at Saratoga, where I initially became friends with Bailey. She had invited me down for a weekend at Keeneland at her farm in Kentucky, and I had so much fun that weekend that two years later I moved down to Lexington.

Cherry Wine on the right and two paddock mates


The Romans Farm is a nice property that boasts a gorgeous pond draped in a weeping willow tree, by a huge field with an old cemetery in it. This was where Cherry Wine and all of the other weanlings were turned out. At the time, Dale had an abundance of Paddy O’Prado colts and fillies on the farm and one of the friendliest was the lighter gray colt with the big stripe down his face. Little did we know at the time that some three years later he’d be on the Triple Crown trail.

The next time that I came across Cherry Wine was last summer at Saratoga. He was inconspicuous the entire summer, a calm grey in a stall labeled “C.S. Royce,” shadowed by the monstrous form of Keen Ice some three stalls down. Our most memorable experience together was the day after the Travers Stakes and Keen Ice’s giant-slaying victory over American Pharoah. That day, Dale was busy with interviews and was not able to make it to the races. He told me to go as his representative and keep an eye on things as he had a maiden debuting in a turf race.

As it went, I arrived backside to meet with Ubaldo and Cherry’s groom, Ernesto. By then I had discovered that C.S. Royce was not actually C.S. Royce, that was his dam’s name and he had been bestowed the name of Cherry Wine. The holding barn at Saratoga is directly next to Dale’s barn, so we made the short trip over to wait for the two-year-olds to get called over to the paddock. When they did, the three of us trekked over, smiling the whole way as were still giddy off of Keen Ice’s win the prior day. Cherry Wine was relatively well behaved for a two-year-old, and after being saddled in the pink towel for gate eight he received the leg up and Shaun Bridgmohan landed lightly on his back in the orange silks of Frank Jones. With that, our trio followed the horse onto the track and ducked out to watch him against the rail of the clubhouse.

Cherry Wine in the paddock at Saratoga before his debut


There was clearly trouble in the gate as Cherry Wine reared up twice, and to me it appeared that he may have banged himself up. He was backed out of the gate and the track veterinarian gave him a brief once-over and the okay to re-enter, and they were running. Cherry ended up settling quite wide toward the back of the pack, clearly green throughout and finishing a well beaten ninth.
From there I got separated from the other two as they went back onto the track to greet him, but I made it back to the barn at the same time as they did. I looked in disbelief as Cherry’s head was covered in blood from a cut he sustained while rearing. His front legs were cut up as well, and I was actually quite shocked the vet had allowed him to run. That was my last experience with him of the year.

Fast forwarding to the future, Cherry Wine had physically grown quite a lot as he stalked about in the paddock for the Preakness, the rain making his grey darker than its true color. After Corey Lanerie got the mount up and headed to the track, the Romans decided to stay on the turf course to watch the race as opposed to contend the bridge to the grandstand across the slop. This ended up being a great vantage point and we were not alone. I stood by my friend Amanda, who hotwalks Cherry Wine when she is in town and had offsided him for the race.

Heading into the Preakness, I was quite confident that Nyquist would win. He’s just so much better than the rest of the crop, and his running style is incredibly versatile so I knew he wouldn’t get caught up in a speed duel. Clearly, I was mistaken. Luckily I had also advised everyone and their mother in the suites to play Cherry Wine as the longshot pick, so that worked out.



Anticipation mounted as they headed into the gate and I could feel my heart beating out of my chest. When they broke, I stood by the rail to watch them head by the first time and observed Cherry Wine sitting far toward the back with the other grey, Lani. From there I changed my view to the giant television in the infield and my jaw about dropped when I saw Nyquist gunning between two cheap speed horses in a ridiculous :22.38 opening fraction. It only got worse as they went the half in :46.56, with my heart sinking. Why in the world would a jockey send such a versatile horse on a suicide mission against two horses who did not stand a chance?

Meanwhile, I couldn’t even locate Cherry Wine because he had dropped so far out of it as to not be in the picture. I knew he broke his maiden over a sloppy course, so I wasn’t concerned about him handling the mud, but I was curious if he had taken a sharp right at the first turn to stop at the Sky Suites for a Black Eyed Susan drink.

As they came thundering around the far turn and into the stretch, I shook my head in dismay as I saw Exaggerator skip past Nyquist. Gutierrez is dead in my books for that ride, and you could visibly tell that poor Nyquist knew he was getting passed and hated it. Cherry Wine’s location was still a mystery but as they neared I saw the grey rocketing up the inside of Nyquist and let loose a huge scream as he crossed the wire a nose in front. Amanda and I found each other yelling at the top of our lungs, and then we galloped over to Dale, who was staring intently at the screen, trying to decide if his horse had gotten up over the unbeaten champion or not. When it was official everyone looked pretty elated, and who wouldn’t after running such a huge race in a classic?



After running on the track to greet Cherry and essentially destroying my boots, I reconvened with the Nagels back in the Stronach tent. We all high fived after such a huge run, with most of us cashing massive tickets as Cherry had gone off at 17-1. From there the rest of the night was filled with bourbon and celebrations, and my first Preakness experience was in the books. As sad I was that Nyquist had lost in such a brutal fashion, Cherry Wine’s incredible effort resonated in my heart.

Needless to say, while my first Preakness experience was a bit damper than desired, it was also incredibly fulfilling. I got paid to handicap horse racing and share my love for the sport and gambling with others, and to top it off the Romans had a huge weekend with their runners which was just an absolute blast. Hopefully the next time I return to Pimlico the weather is slightly more enjoyable, but other than the precipitation, I left Baltimore with zero complaints and strictly happy memories. 

The girls killing it in the Stronach Tent
Hannah and Kyle with Miss Maryland! Blue steel baby
All about the bourbon & fast horses for this girl


Thursday, May 19, 2016

Preakness Stakes and Undercard

This year I will be attending my very first Preakness Stakes, and I’m so excited! Unforunately the forecast has a 90% chance of rain on Saturday. While handicapping off the turf races is something I enjoy, it is not quite clear what the track conditions will be yet. Therefore I handicapped for both on the turf and off the turf conditions. Best of luck to everyone playing the card this weekend!

R1 – Alw 5000s – 1 1/16 M - $35,000 – 3yo+
6 Double Whammy – 5 Golden Rings – 8 Start Jumping

R2 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16M – Turf - $50,000 – F&M 3yo+
Turf: 11 Reggae Song – 12 Double Espresso – 8 Queen Caroline
Off the turf: 11 Reggae Song – 6 Thissongisaboutyou – 5 Tapit Together – 8 Queen Caroline

R3 – Alw N1x – 1 1/16 M - $52,000 – 3yo+
2 Good Luck Gus – 3 Combat Driver – 9 Cat Fiftyfive

R4 OC 32k/N1x – 1 1/16 M – Turf - $55,000 – F&M 3yo+
Turf: 8 Pramedya – 4 Evidently - 14 Truly Together
Off the turf: 2 Madam Aamoura – 3 Agawa – 7 Tap it Out

R5 – The Maryland Sprint – G3 – 6F - $150,000 – 3yo+
4 Cinco Charlie – 7 Salutos Amigos – 3 Always Sunshine
  
Cinco Charlie runs his best when he is the lone speed in the race and he appears to be here. He’s 2-2 on the slop and the forecast predicts rain, should run well for Steve Asmussen.
Salutos Amigos comes to Baltimore for David Jacobson after a decent effort in the G2 Churchill Downs Stakes. He’s an incredible 7-7 on a wet surface and is dropping out of graded company. However, he rarely performs his best outside of New York so I’m willing to take a stand against him here.
Always Sunshine rounds out the field for me. He should sit a nice tracking trip and he was second to Salutos on his home turf two back in the G3 Tom Fool. He is also 2-2 on a wet surface and his last start was an 11 ½ length demolition of an allowance at Parx.


R6 – The James W. Murphy Stakes – 1M – Turf - $100,000 – 3yos
Turf picks: 2 He’ll Pay – 1 Copingaway – 8 Aquaphobia

He’ll Pay comes in off a stakes victory at this distance over the synthetic for trainer Larry Jones. He did that immediately upon graduating from maiden company, so perhaps he is coming into his own. He seems to be training well and this looks like a good spot for him.
Copingaway: A speedy horse, he enters off of a nice victory in stakes company last out at Gulfstream Park. Prior to that he was on the board in multiple allowance races at Gulfstream, and the competition in this field is not too stiff for him to do well.
Aquaphobia may have a name that won’t suit him for Saturday as it’s supposed to pour. Hopefully he isn’t too afraid to get wet because if this race stays on the grass I will use him to round out my tri as he was a decent third in only his second start, last out at Keeneland, and prior to that a nice winner of an allowance down at Tampa.

Off the turf picks: 2 He’ll Pay – 5 Conquest Windycity – 7 Marengo Road


R7 – OC 32k/N2x – 6F – $55,000 – 3yo+
2 Chief Istan – 8 Troubled Waters – 4 Cooking Up a Storm


R8 – The Very One – 5F – Turf - $100,000 – F&M 3yo+
Turf picks: 12 Lady Shipman – 1 Miss Matzoball – 9 Exaggerated

Lady Shipman is near impossible to pick against. She has been an easy winner of almost every single turf sprint she has been entered in, and is 11: 8-2-0 from this distance. She already has a win over Pimlico’s turf surface and she enters off a superbly easy victory in her last effort down at Gulfstream.
Miss Matzoball for Roy Lerman broke her maiden over a yielding turf course, and if the weather is as predicted, the turf should be very soft for Friday. Two back she was a stakes winner at Gulfstream but did not run as well in her next start at Keeneland. She should benefit from the surface, but no one is getting close to the 12.
Exaggerated comes in off a win over Miss Matzoball at Keeneland, the Giants Causeway, and she is particularly quick. She will probably get toasted by the 12 and hang on for third.

Off the turf: 9 Exaggerated – 10 Joya Real -  3 Disco Barbie
^Assuming Lady Shipman scratches


R9 – The Chick Lang – 6F - $100,000 – 3yos
3 Quijote - 5 Never Gone South – 1 Justin Squared – 6 Counterforce

Quijote enters off of a few nice efforts for trainer Tom Amoss. He’s an interesting choice, fast, and was second as the favorite last out. Six furlongs is probably his ideal, so cutting back helps.
Never Gone South has two wins from three tries on a wet track and was sixth last out to Governor Malibu who went on to run a very impressive race in the Peter Pan and is now being pointed to the Belmont Stakes. He’s fast, and there is a lot of speed, but I think a wet surface will help him hold on.
Justin Squared is the heavy favorite for conditioner Bob Baffert and was an easy winner of an allowance at Laurel in his last start. He is also speedy but I am skeptical of his ability against the other speed hungry horses in the field, though he could easily prove me wrong as he has been working bullets. His works have been coming at Santa Anita so he has put a lot of mileage on in the past month.
Counterforce comes into the race off an easy win in a stakes at Oaklawn Park and should benefit from the hot pace. I could easily swap my top three around and be content with any order. They’re all nice horses, I just like the 5’s prior slop form.

R10 – The Gallorette Handicap – 1 1/16 M – Turf - $150,000 – F&M 3yo+
3 Tiger Ride – 12 Heath – 8 Josdesanimaux – 5 Ol’ Fashion Gal

Tiger Ride is cross entered for Friday, so depending on which race she enters, I really like her in this spot.  There is not much speed in the race which will hurt her closing style but she is probably the most competitive horse in the field which will assist her.
Heath enters off of a nice allowance win over a soft turf course for Bill Mott at Keeneland, and they thought highly enough of her to give her three stakes tries before that start. Second start off a layoff should benefit her as well.
Josdesanimaux was second in her last start, a stakes race at Tampa, but prior to that was on a four race win streak (excluding the interior race where she lost her rider). She has since been transferred to Mark Casse’s barn where she will be making her second start for him off of a layoff.
Ol’ Fashion Gal will sit a nice tracking trip after two decent starts this year for Casse. She’s getting back into the swing of things after a long layoff saw her off the races for 10 months.

Off the turf: 3 Tiger Ride – 10 Ginger N Rye – 11 Vielsalm



R11 – The Larc Sir Barton – 1 1/16 M – $100,000 – 3yos
7 Dazzling Gem – 5 American Freedom – 8 Moon King

Dazzling Gem gets some class relief here which should be huge for him as he ran fourth behind three Derby contestants last out in the Arkansas Derby, and prior to that was third to Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. This stakes should set up well for him.
American Freedom comes in off a subpar effort in the G3 Pat Day Mile, after breaking his maiden over a sloppy, sealed course impressively at Santa Anita. He drops down again here and stretches out, which should be good for him as a son of Pulpit.
Moon King comes in off an okay allowance race, but he isn’t facing worldbeaters in this field. Mark Casse is a top conditioner and should have this horse ready to go.
Donegal Moon needs to rebound from a poor effort in the Blue Grass Stakes, while previously romping in an allowance race at Parx. This is a good spot for him, but there is a lot of speed in the race and if he is not on the lead he does not win.


R12 – The Longines Dixie – G2 – 1 1/16 M – Turf - $250,000 – 3yo+
9 Ring Weekend – 7 Grand Arch – 8 Prince Gagarin (IRE) – 12 Take the Stand (ARG)

Ring Weekend is getting back on track here in his seasonal debut for Graham Motion. He has been training nicely and won a G1 in his only start of the year in 2015, so we know he runs well fresh. He also took the Hill Prince back in 2014 over a soft surface, and the Saranac over a good surface. He’s very live.
Grand Arch also returns to the races after running third to Tepin in the BC Mile last year. He is a proven winner over a yielding surface, taking the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile, and should put in a big effort on Saturday.
 Prince Gagarin (IRE) was running over soft footing throughout his entire British campaign and was a winner here over a soft turf course in his first start in the United States a few weeks ago at Keeneland.
Take the Stand (ARG) rounds out my choices as the lone true speed of the race coming in off a win in a G3 turf race down at the Fair Grounds.

Off the turf: 12 Take the Stand (ARG) – 10 El Kabeir – 1 Long on Value


R13- The Preakness – G1 – 1 3/16 M - $1,500,000 – 3yo
3 Nyquist – 5 Exaggerator – 1 Cherry Wine – 7 Collected

Nyquist is going to be very hard to beat. Unless the Derby took his soul out of him, he’s not losing. He’s undefeated and a monster, he’s already won over the slop (Florida Derby), and he can run from the lead, to tracking, to the back of the pack (#tbt BC Juvenile).
Exaggerator will get an ideal set up with a  lot of speed in the race, but I do not think anyone is quick enough to toast Nyquist, so he will have plenty of kick to beat back Exaggerator (for the fifth time).  There isn’t much outside of Nyquist. No one else is fast enough. Would have preferred if Exaggerator had skipped this race to try at Nyquist in the Belmont, but oh well. He’ll run his race but I doubt it will be enough to get to Nyquist.
Cherry Wine broke his maiden in the slop and should do well here with the same setup as Exaggerator. He barely missed second in the Blue Grass Stakes, and he is not facing much here outside of the top two. He can definitely get the distance as well.
Collected is the minor league horse upgrading for the first time. Will he transfer well or will he fade? His Lexington was nice but he didn’t beat much, Swipe wasn’t 100% and nothing out there was quite impressive. Apparently he has tiny feet which will be good for slop, but I am still skeptical of his talent.

R14 – Maiden Special Weight – 1 1/16 M –Turf - $50,000 – 3yo+
Turf: 1 Habits – 7 Hardly Home – 3 Brucarita – 11 Map Room

Off the turf: 1 entry – 12 Mesojet – 2 Bourbon Commander

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Black-Eyed Susan Day Stakes Races

R3 The Skipat - $100,000 – 6F – F&M 3yo+
8 Fantastic Style – 9 Sweet On Smokey – 1 Sweetrayofsunshine

Fantastic Style ships in from California to contest the Skipat for the top connections of trainer Bob Baffert, owner Kaleem Shah, and jockey Javier Castellano. She’s a cut above the rest, being a very fast multiple graded stakes winner who has two wins from two starts at this distance. She’s guaranteed to be upfront early, and while there is a lot of other speed in the race, she is capable of going quicker than anyone else. Sweet on Smokey enters for trainer Claudio Gonzalez off of a nice second in the Sugar Maple at Charles Town on April 23rd. Prior to that she was a runaway winner of the Videogenic Stakes at Aqueduct on April 2nd. She tends to sit off the pace and make a move, and the hot pace that is guaranteed by the speed horses in the race will fit her well. She’s 6:5-0-1 at this distance. Sweetrayofsunshine ships in from New York for trainer/owner David Jacobson. At seven years of age, she’s a model of consistency with 12 wins from 26 starts, and a record of 6:3-3-0 at this distance. She likes to be up on the pace which may be difficult but since coming to Jacobson’s barn she’s a got two wins, one in a stakes race, and three seconds from five starts.


R7 – The Pimlico Special Handicap – G3 – 1 3/16 miles - $300,000 – 3yo+
2 Stanford – 1 Page McKenney – 7 Noble Bird

Stanford enters off a win in the $1,000,000 Charles Town Classic after making the pace. He’s been right there in his two other starts of the year, the Gulfstream Park Handicap and the Fred Hooper. He’s the lone true speed in this race as well, registering high speed figures in his last few starts. Pimlico’s racetrack should suit him well.  Page McKenney ran second in last year’s Pimlico Classic to Commissioner and returns looking for revenge. He was a good second last out in the Charles Town Classic, and he entered that race off of a four race win streak, all of which came in stakes company. He’s 2:1-1-0 at Pimlico and tends to sit nice tracking trips. The question for Noble Bird is which Noble Bird will show up.  In his last start he was very rank and was a distanced eighth. Prior to that he ran a great race to finish second in the G3 Ben Ali at Keeneland. However, he has a tendency to become rank in his races and when he does, he fades poorly. When a level-headed Noble Bird shows up, he almost always runs well. Unfortunately, we will not know until the horses break through the gates.


R8 – The Jim McKay Turf Sprint – 5F - $100,000 – 3yo+
2 Ben’s Cat – 7 Rocket Heat – 4 Expected Ruler

Is it possible to root against the iron gelding Ben’s Cat and his incredible trainer King Leatherbury? I don’t think so. If he gets beat today, it’s by Rocket Heat, but it’s unlikely. He has, after all, won this race four times, three in consecutive years, and is the defending champion. The gelding has 31 wins in 54 lifetime starts, registering a 10:6-1-0 record on Pimlico’s turf. He returned to the races on May 1st after a break, getting up just in time to take an allowance in super impressive fashion. His main competition, Rocket Heat, enters off of a win in the G3 Turf Sprint at Churchill Downs. Rocket Heat tends to send to the lead, and cruised in his last start to win in 56.47 seconds. He thrives at this distance with four wins and a second from six starts. He’s the second choice. Expected Ruler, a three year old trained by the young conditioner Liam Benson, enters off of a nice allowance victory at Keeneland. A turf stakes winner in his debut at Monmouth, he followed that up with two subpar efforts in graded stakes at Churchill and Keeneland. He returned in his sophomore year to run sixth beaten 9 ¼ behind the superstar Manhattan Dan at Gulfstream, before taking the race at Keeneland. He’s definitely a longshot but if Ben’s Cat doesn’t fire, there’s a lot of horses left in the field to pick up the pieces.


R9 – The Allaire Dupont Distaff – G3 – 1 1/8 miles - $150,000 – F&M 3yo+
5 Ahh Chocolate – 10 Tiger Ride – 6 Savings Account

I settle on Ahh Chocolate, the Neil Howard trainee coming in off of a decent third in the Doubledogdare at Keeneland. This Candy Ride (ARG) filly has been in the money in all of her last four starts and was third here in the Black Eyed Susan last year. She’s by no means a world-beater but she has won at this distance before and her lifetime worst race, tenth beaten 4 1/2, came in a turf race last August. Tiger Ride, another Candy Ride (ARG) filly, enters for Graham Motion after a poor showing against Tepin in the G1 Jenny Wiley over the turf. This filly is intriguing, she has run on turf and dirt multiple times at multiple distances. I’m not sure if it is because Motion has no clue what her ideal is, or because she’s just good enough to do anything. Her seasonal debut came in the G2 Inside Information, a 7F sprint, before the 1 1/16 try over the turf. Now she extends out to 1 1/8 on the dirt, the furthest distance she has ever contested. Why not give her a shot? Round out with the mare Savings Account for Tom Proctor who enters off of a win in the Esplanade Stakes over a muddy, sealed Fair Grounds with Ahh Chocolate third behind her.


R10 – The Hilltop – 1 1/16 M - $100,000 – 3yoF
5 Miss Katie Mae (IRE) – 14 Wessex – 9 Channel Regatta

If it weren’t for her horrible post position, I would have Juddmone Farm’s Wessex on top here. She’s a debut winner jumping up to stakes company for top conditioner Bill Mott, but being draw in gate 14 makes her trip incredibly difficult.  Instead I settled on Miss Katie Mae (IRE) for Graham Motion. Her first start in the United States was a decent fourth by 2 ¼ at Keeneland in allowance company. In that race she covered 40 feet more than the winner, the equivalent of about 4 ¾ lengths, as all of the top three horses covered less ground than she did. She also had the quickest final quarter. Prior to that she raced in England and was graded stakes placed, losing the G3 Anglesey Stakes by just a neck. She’s got a better European record than her other Irish counterpart, Spinamiss (IRE) for Todd Pletcher. Channel Regatta, a horse from local connections, enters off of two wins, a maiden and an allowance. She has already won twice from this distance and as the field is not a group of world beaters she could definitely get up to be part of the money.


R11 – The Black-Eyed Susan – G2 – 1 1/8 M - $250,000 – 3yoF
3 Land Over Sea – 5 Go Maggie Go – 9 Midnight On Oconee - 4 Ma Can Do It

Land Over Sea put in a huge effort in the Kentucky Oaks to land a close second, three lengths behind Cathryn Sophia. She covered 60ft (~7 lengths) more than third placed Lewis Bay, and 45ft (~5 ¼ lengths) more than fourth placed Go Maggie Go, all of whom finished within a neck of the O’Neill trainee. She was drawn in gate 13 on Oaks day and should benefit from an inside post here. She has proven herself to be one of the nicer three-year-old fillies after coming out of Songbird’s shadow and I think she will cement that claim in the Black Eyed Susan. Go Maggie Go enters off of an impressive fourth in just her third start. She made a huge move down the stretch and barely missed the jump for second after a troubled trip. She was also taken out of her prior established running style, a stalking trip, and shuffled to the back of the pack. With a good draw here and some experience under her belt, she should be able to turn in a big performance. I round out with Midnight on Oconee, a Larry Jones trainee who struggled in her last start, the Fair Grounds Oaks, finishing a distant seventh. Before that subpar performance she was second in the Rachel Alexandra and second in the Silverbulletday. She’s speedy, and Jones knows how to do well with fillies. She could be sitting on a nice effort. Add in the maiden Ma Can Do It who has repeatedly done well in graded company and will relish the stretch to two turns. 

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

The Frenzy of Derby Weekend

The Kentucky Derby has come and gone in the inevitable whirlwind of mint juleps, big hats, and fast horses that sweeps it in and out every year. Though this year’s edition did not reach the same epic proportions of my first Derby experience last May, it was every bit as memorable as American Pharoah’s.

My Derby weekend began by giving two sets of tours on Oaks day at my place of employment, Spendthrift Farm. The first, a tour for fifty Texas A&M alumni correlated with the veterinary school, went significantly smoother than I had expected. The next was a tour for a lovely mother and daughter duo from Columbus, Ohio, and my friend’s energetic and fun mother. I always prefer the intimacy of smaller tours, and hearing anecdotes about your friends as children and growing up is always an enjoyable exchange, farm history for blackmail.

By three o’clock I had leapt into my dress and began powering down I-64W to Louisville. I arrived with plenty of time to spare at the backside and parked next to my friend’s barn. Bailey Romans, daughter of Dale Romans, has been one of my best friends since we met at Saratoga some four years ago and her family has always been more than generous with me in sharing in the excitement of their racing stable and general life activities.

Bailey and I on Derby day

They had Go Maggie Go running in the Kentucky Oaks. The Ghostzapper filly had only run twice before, winning her debut easily this year down at Gulfstream Park before following that up with another effortless victory in the G2 Davona Dale. The plan was to do the walkover with her, and it was executed to perfection. While Beto, her groom led her down the backside, my friend Amanda Gillman, a partner in Donegal and equally passionate racing enthusiast offsided the filly, and another good friend in photographer and Darley Flying Starter Mary Ellet joined us for the expedition. It was easily one of the highlights of the weekend as we four girls and Beto made our way over to the paddock. There was of course the inevitable dodge of the security guards entering the paddock area, but after a brief dance of evasion I triumphed. Honestly, I walked in with an Oaks contestant, you would think I wouldn’t have to worry about being “detained” as some lady with a clipboard had attempted to have me.

Mary Ellet, myself, Amanda Gillman, Go Maggie Go, and Beto


Once successfully in the paddock, I discovered Bailey and Jake, her brother, were on set about to be in interviewed by Wave 3 News. The Kentucky Horsemen’s Benevolent & Protective Association, overseen by Jennie Rees and Bailey, started this great initiative called #KyDerbyKids, where sons and daughters of trainers contesting the Kentucky Derby could share with the public their experiences leading up to the race through Twitter. It’s a great way to expose a younger generation to the experiences of other youth in the industry. Bailey received a lot of media time through the initiative, and she is an excellent public speaker, so the movement had a great representative.

The race itself did not pan out exactly as we had idealized, but Go Maggie Go ran incredibly well considering it was only her third start. Before she entered the gate we started a “Go Maggie Go” chant in the box area, and people enthusiastically joined in. She broke decently but was taken out of her normal tracking style, settling back on the rail. She swung out some five wide in the far turn and for a little there I was afraid she was not going to make a move. However, when she got out into the center of the stretch she unleashed an impressive turn of foot. She had the fastest final furlong and quarter times, and barely missed the jump for third.  Taking nothing away from the winner, Cathryn Sophia ran an absolutely spectacular race after being wide throughout, but Maggie will simply get better with distance. The G1 Alabama at 1 1/4 miles up at Saratoga sounds right up her alley.


Amanda and I with Maggie after the race



Derby day came quickly after a night of bourbon and handicapping, and I was so excited. Our friend Kate Melican, Jake’s girlfriend, is an incredibly talented fashionista and she hand crafted my fascinator that morning. You can visit her website at She's A Southern Belle. I wasn’t sure I loved my dress, a floral with a high neckline coincidentally in the colors of Albaugh Family Stable’s silks, but it all came together quite well. We packed in the car and drove to the track, arriving late morning. As is tradition within the family and extended friends, a huge group of us amassed in the Stephen Foster Lounge to take in the races.


Kate Melican of She's a Southern Belle and I with the facsinators she designed

One of my good friends works at Snapchat and he hooked me up with the lady coordinating the Kentucky Derby feed, so I spent a large part of the day gathering snaps for the Kentucky Derby story. It was quite enjoyable and I hovered around the winners’ circle area, where I was able to briefly (10 seconds or less) interview Bob Costas, Adrian Grenier, and Victor Espinoza to name a few. Over 3.5 million people viewed my snapchats from the Derby. That was a very fun part of the event. In the fifth race, the Romans won with Hesinfront, and we had our first picture of the day taken. It’s always fun to see everyone enjoying themselves in the winner’s circle, and of course there is an electricity in the air that makes winning on Derby day all the more special.

Eventually it was time to head to the backside to prepare for the walkover. That is easily the most thrilling part of Derby day, other than the big race itself. Albaugh Family Stable, the crew that owns Brody’s Cause, is a great group of people and a pleasure to be around. It’s headed by Dennis Albaugh, the pesticide billionaire from Iowa who is as down to earth and friendly as can be. The experience of all your friends gathered by the barns, the nerves pulsing through your body, it’s such a rush of emotion that it’s hard to handle.

It got creepy as the minutes passed. Storm clouds rolled in rapidly and just as country music sensation Lady Antebellum began to deliver the national anthem, the skies opened and rain started pouring down torrentially. It was haunting as the wind and precipitation whipped through the backside, and the words to our nation’s anthem beat on through it all, echoed by a chorus of 167,000 voices.  We were sheltered under the barn for protection and missed the running of the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. It seems as though the rains had ushered in bad luck, because in the paddock for that race a sign flew off the roof and hit entrant Grand Tito, causing the horse to act up and eventually flip over and hit his head hard, dragging his groom to the same doom. He was scratched, and the race went off. Two horses clipped heels and fell during the running, which was eventually won by Divisidero, but the drama that preluded the Derby did not continue on into the race.

Brody with Mark Simms and Jose


The rain stopped in time for the walkover and the skies cleared, allowing bright sunlight to caress the backs of the twenty horses that aligned to contest the most exciting two minutes in sports. Last year I did the walkover with the Romans crew, Donegal Racing, and Keen Ice. This year’s edition was slightly different as Brody’s Cause was the first horse to head to the paddock. It was also nice as the crowd was not as riled up so Brody remained calm, cool, and collected. Not as though he ever acts up, he’s one of the classiest racehorses I have ever been around. The cheers for Dale rained down from the grandstand as eager fans shouted their support for one of Louisville’s most beloved trainers. Cries for Iowa occasionally were shouted to the Albaughs, and the entire trek gave me the chills. Disappearing under the twinspires and through the tunnel to the paddock, the sensation was dulled by the mass amounts of people clustered inside. I snuck out of the crowd packed in the oval to see if I could get some more decent footage for snapchat by Brody’s stall, and the lovely bay stood there patiently with Jose, his groom, to his left, and Mark Simms, a good family friend of the Romans, to the right. Dennis told me to give Brody a pep talk so I whispered some words of advice in his ear. He’s the kind of horse that you can do that to, you can literally walk up to his head while he is in the paddock for the Kentucky Derby and whisper in his ear, and he won’t even flinch. Many of the horses were nervous wrecks, but I swear with Brody, he’s so special and relaxed that you do not even need to worry about moves that would be considered silly or dangerous around any other horse. He’s like my paint at home, kind, intelligent, and wise beyond his years.


Brody cool as a cucumber in the paddock

There were a few particularly wild moments in the paddock as last year’s Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert noted that Danzing Candy’s saddle had slipped and ushered him back into his #20 stall. Baffert and who I presumed was the exercise rider readjusted the horse’s saddle and sent him on his way. A class act. Ironically not four minutes later, after the jockeys mounted and the horses were leaving the paddock, one of the connections of #18, Majesto, came running up to Dale exclaiming that they needed help, the girth was loose. In a panic Majesto was brought back to his stall and Dale fixed his saddle. Immediately after, Dale and Bob convened, both a little shocked but also laughing at what had just occurred.
Bob Baffert attending to Danzing Candy

We watched the race in the paddock as Baffert and the connections of Mor Spirit gathered a few feet away. Unfortunately keeping track of your rooting interest on the paddock screen is about as easy as finding Waldo, so we didn’t really know where Brody was throughout or where he ended. We were well aware that Nyquist won, and I couldn’t help but smile a little as he had been my number 1 Derby pick throughout the whole season, and I got to know his team well as they prepped at Keeneland, they’re incredible people.

We went down to the track to see what Luis Saez, Brody’s jockey, had to say after the race. Johnny, Nyquist’s exercise rider, and I spotted each other at the same time and he quickly intercepted me for a big hug that quite literally swept me off my feet. You can’t help but be happy for your friends when they win, especially when it’s the Kentucky Derby.

Brody’s Cause had finished seventh, and he didn’t really have too much of an excuse. He had an incredibly wide trip and had the third-fastest final quarter, but it just was not his day. A little dejected, we returned to the lounge to take it all in.

Wildly enough, the Romans had one last entrant in the final race of the card that was also owned by Albaugh Family Stable. Race Me Home, an impeccably bred son of the talented multiple Grade 1 winning racemare Society Selection, by the great British sire Oasis Dream, was unplaced in two starts. Tammy Fox was completely confident in the likelihood of his winning this race, and we watched diligently from the same area the Romans always view the races. With the lights on and the dark skies streaked with lightning, Race Me Home finished first under the wire. That feeling of pure elation returned as we all gathered in the winner’s circle, Dennis Albaugh’s face lit up with a huge smile as he threw hugs out to everyone in his path, and laughter filled the air and took the weight of Brody’s loss off of everyone.

Bruce Romans and I in the paddock before the last


That night it seems as though there was a reason for Brody’s loss, Dale needed all of his luck on his way home from the races. The skies reopened as we left the track and rain dampened the night. Dale and some his friends were travelling back from dinner when a lady ran a stop sign and smashed into them, causing their car to spiral into an oncoming car. In a panic everyone was taken to the hospital in ambulances.  Luckily none of the injuries were life threatening, but everyone was in a lot of pain and there were more than a handful of broken bones between the passengers. They had a guardian angel with them that night because the car was totaled and they could easily have died.

Brody and his barn cat friend the day after

The next morning Amanda and I went to the barns to check in on Brody’s Cause and the horse was lively as ever, playfully nipping at the barn cat’s tail every time he strutted by Brody’s stall. The backside itself was deserted, the complete opposite of the hustle and bustle that had led up to Saturday's climax. Afterward we caught up with our friends at Nyquist’s barn and the mood was jovial, but relaxed. The champ himself was napping, but by the end of our visit he had resurfaced, releasing a big yawn before attentively taking in his surroundings. He would ship out to Pimlico to follow his Triple Crown quest the next day.

Amanda and I with part of Team Nyquist, Tyler and Jack


With all of the excitement over, I packed up my bags and drove back to Lexington, with a quick stop at Vietnam Kitchen to get my favorite meal, a noodles and chicken dish simply called K11. While Nyquist ventures to Pimlico this week, I’ll be recuperating from the highs and lows of Derby for the next few days. The post-Derby depression is real, but the idea of attending my first Preakness is the motivation I need to make it through the next two weeks. As always, I am forever grateful for my friends and the people who allow me to make such incredible memories. May they continue for years to come. 

A little Nyquist action to end the weekend

Friday, May 6, 2016

Derby Day Stakes Undercard

Derby Day Stakes Undercard:
Let's not forget that the stakes races on the Derby undercard are great betting races! Here's a look at my selections.

R6: G2 The Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile – 1 mile – Turf – F/M 4yos+
1 Tepin – 4 Isabella Sings – 9 Rainha de Bateria – 2 Josedesanimaux

Hard to pick against the chalk here. Tepin may be the nicest turf horse in the country now and she is coming in off of a five race win streak, including a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. She won this race last year as well. Isabella Sings for Todd Pletcher was a good second to Tepin in her last start, the G2 Hillsborough at Tampa Bay Downs. She opened an insanely wide lead and Tepin whittled it down until this filly crossed the wire a length behind the champ. She will send again today and most likely, Tepin will surpass her again. Raihna de Bateria enters as the wise guy horse, switching trainers from Graham Motion to Chad Brown. She did not run well when 7th beaten 10 lengths in the Hillsborough, but she prior to that she was second in the G3 Sewanee River. She gets blinkers for the first time and Brown bats at 24% winners from first time starters.


R7: G2 The Churchill Downs – 7 furlongs – Dirt – 4yos+
3 Calculator – 8 Salutos Amigos – 6 Speightster – 5 Limousine Liberal

Calculator narrowly lost the G1 Carter in his last start to another entrant in this field, Salutos Amigos. I think the two will reverse roles today as Calculator is getting back into the groove, this being his fourth start off of a year layoff. He’s finding the right stride now and has been running better and better with each start. Salutos Amigos is an iron horse for trainer David Jacobson and although I do not love him outside of New York, there is a lot of speed in this race that should set up well for his closing kick. His last two races have been incredibly impressive efforts, and he knows where the wire is. This will be his first start at Churchill Downs. Speightster returns to the races off of almost a year layoff for trainer Bill Mott. He was an easy winner of the Dwyer last year over Texas Red, and he is a very fast horse. Mott does well with horses off of long layoffs and Speightster’s toughest challenge may come with keeping up with another speedy horse, Limousine Liberal.  


R8: G1 Humana Distaff – 7 furlongs – Dirt – F&M 4yos+
9 Birdatthewire – 10 Wavell Avenue – 8 Taris – 6 Enchanting Lady

This race is absolutely loaded with inside speed which makes me assume it will set up well for closers. The logical choice would be Wavell Avenue, who was an impressive winner of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint and returned to the races with a third in the G1 Madison at Keeneland. However, I will look to Birdattheiwire who returns to Dale Romans’ barn after a stint with Tom Proctor out in California. Birdatthewire ran a very good race in the G1 Madison and will have the perfect setup here with all the spped. She has Mike Smith on board who knows how to sit a patient outside trip and she is a Grade 1 winner with Romans. I like Taris to sit a tracking trip off the speed and have a nice trip. Finally, Enchanting Lady to round out the field.


R9: G2 The American Turf – 1 1/16 miles – Turf – 3yos
8 Shakhimat – 13 Azar – 1 Airoforce – 9 Camelot Kitten

A deep field with no clear standouts for the American Turf. Shakhimat enters off an easy win in the G3 Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland. The son of Lohnro does all of his winning on the front end. There’s a little bit of speed in this race which makes me nervous, will he conquer or fold? I’ll lean toward conquer. Azar enters off a narrow loss in the Spiral Stakes to Oscar Nominated, and he tends to sit a tracking trip, though he went to the lead in his last. The post concerns me for him, being outside he is guaranteed to go wide. Airoforce returns to the turf for top conditioner Mark Casse off of two poor efforts in the Spiral and Risen Star. He does his best running from further back and will have an honest pace to run into here. Round out with Camelot Kitten for Chad Brown who gets blinkers for the first time. This will be his second start off of a layoff.


R10: The Pat Day Mile – 1 mile – Dirt – 3yos
4 Gray Sky – 7 Forevamo – 12 Unbridled Outlaw – 10 Cocked and Loaded

I’ll go with the longshot here in Gray Sky for D. Wayne Lukas. He’s got a win and two seconds from three starts over the Churchill surface. I liked how he has been performing at Oaklawn all season and I think he may be able to boost his form when at Churchill. I also like Forevamo who was second in the Risen Star and followed it up with a fifth in the Louisiana Derby. I like the cut back in distance for this colt. Unbridled Outlaw will also appreciate the cut back in distance and usually sits a tracking trip.


R11: The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic – 1 1/8 miles – Turf – 4yos+
3 Bolo – 2 Chocolate Ride – 12 Big Blue Kitten – 8 Divisidero


Bolo enters off of a nice second in the G1 Frank Kilroe mile, which he preceded by a win in the G2 Arcadia stakes.  He was due for a bit of a bounce second off the layoff and I fully expect him to be ready to run here. I like Chocolate Ride as well, who is the lone speed of the race other than Triple Threat, and he has four wins and a third from seven starts at the distance. Round out with Big Blue Kitten who returns off of a layoff since November when he was third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf for trainer Chad Brown. Finally, Divisidero always seems to be just there and won the G2 American Turf here last year. 

Mackenzie's Final Derby Top 10

Post positions are in, Derby is tomorrow, let's take a look at my final top 10!


1. Nyquist – Doug O’Neill – Mario Gutierrez – Reddam Racing, LLC
If I have said it once I have said it a million times, if you do not have the undefeated two-year-old champion at the top of your Derby list, are you crazy?
Pros:  Nyquist is seven for seven, include four G1s. There has never been a challenge he hasn’t won. His Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was one of the most impressive races of the year as Nyquist had a difficult trip, covered a huge amount of additional distance when wide throughout, and still got up to win (over many of the other top competitors including Exaggerator and Brody’s Cause). His Florida Derby was hailed as the great showdown between the East (Mohaymen) and the West, and it wasn’t even a close match. Nyquist destroyed the field. Sure, the Mohaymen camp is full of warranted excuses, but Nyquist still beat up the field despite bearing out.
Cons: Bearing out in the stretch of the Florida Derby is definitely something that we did not want to see, but as most of Nyquists wins are close, did he just get distracted as he drew away? Also, people point to the lack of distance in his pedigree as he is a son of Uncle Mo out of a Forestry mare. True, Uncle Mo and his sire Indian Charlie did not necessarily want to go far, and Forestry’s offspring are milers, but his female side is still loaded with hidden distance in the form of Seeking the Gold and Cox’s Ridge.
Running Style: Nyquist is the most versatile horse in the field. He can win from the lead, stalking, or as he did in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, midpack and wide.  Of course his gate draw is going to be of importance, but as of now it looks as though his versatility is sure to benefit him.
Conclusion: The top, obvious choice. Of the five* undefeated 2yo champions to enter the Kentucky Derby, three have come out victorious, two were runner-ups. I’ll take those odds any day. Lucky #13. 

*= There were actually six total, but Mister Frisky was campaigned his 2yo season in Puerto Rico

2. Brody’s  Cause – Dale Romans – Luis Saez – Albaugh Family Stable
A complete no show in his seasonal debut, Brody’s Cause came back in a big way when winning the G1 Blue Grass Stakes on opening weekend at Keeneland.
Pros: Bred to run all day, Brody’s Cause is a son of Giant’s Causeway out of the Sahm mare Sweet Breanna. He’s got loads of pedigree and his fifth dam is a sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His racing record has been quite interesting. A no show in his debut over the turf at Ellis Park, he returned to win a maiden special in a big way at Churchill from off the pace. From there he went on to upset the field in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland before running a fast-closing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He had some time off after that race and returned to work like a monster before running a mind-boggling seventh as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby. Undeterred, his Eclipse Award winning trainer Dale Romans continued on his charter course with much success as Brody demolished the field in the Blue Grass Stakes. Other than his failed debuts each season, he has been as strong a horse as there can be. I love his post at 19, with the speed outside of him. Danzing Candy will either annihilate or spread the field sending to the lead, and this will allow Brody to drop back and relax. He's been wide in many of his starts before and it does not bug him, and it will help him get a clear trip. His turn of foot is truly impressive and he has done everything right in terms of training.
Cons: This year’s Derby does not look like it will have an incredibly hot pace unless Mike Smith sends Danzing Candy in the killer fractions he set in his previous start. Danzing Candy also drew gate 13, so there is that. Horses like Outwork and Nyquist will keep the speed semi-honest. Still, it could be that the pace will prove troublesome for the closers, which account for half the field. Also, the Blue Grass’s top three finishers were all very far back closing into the pace, so it may have been the ideal setup for him. His speed figures also have not been particularly fast, but he is a two time grade 1 winner at 2 and 3 now.
Running Style: Dead closer. Back of the pack, killer turn of foot.
Conclusion: He seems to be one of the most legitimate closer contenders. I love that he has already won over Keeneland, that he is sitting on his third off the layoff, and he has physically matured so much from 2 to 3. With a good trip he has a huge run in him.

3.  Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen – Florent Geroux – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm
This may be a higher than warranted spot for the Louisiana Derby victor, but I think he has the class and the running style to have success in the race.
Pros: Conditioned by soon-to-be-inducted Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, Gun Runner has a phenomenal pedigree and has only run well in his two starts this year. He’s by Candy Ride (ARG), out of a Giant’s Causeway mare that is half to Horse of the Year Saint Liam. He was an easy winner of the Louisiana Derby after sitting a perfect trip and drawing away to win by 4 ½ lengths. He also had an ideal trip, stalking again, in the Risen Star. I like where he drew in gate 5 because he will probably sit an easy, inside trip.
Cons: The last horse to win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Louisiana Derby was Grindstone in 1996, exactly 20 years ago. In 2003, Funny Cide ran second in the LA Derby and then won the Kentucky Derby. That’s it. Does not bode well for horses prepping in Louisiana. Not to mention his Louisiana Derby final time was a whole second slower than older horses going the same distance on the undercard, no bueno. Gun Runner’s speed figures also have not been as high as many of the horses prepping.
Running Style: Gun Runner tends to sit tracking trips and makes his moves in the far turn. 
Conclusion: While some people are quick to dismiss Gun Runner, I think the question marks surrounding his name are not negatives but chances for this horse to prove what he is made of. Asmussen still has yet to win a Derby but he has a very nice horse in Gun Runner in terms of class and talent, and his running style is perfectly suitable for the field that we are going to have this year.

4. Creator – Steve Asmussen – Ricardo Santana Jr. – Winstar Farm
Creator first caught my eye when he made a sweeping move in the Rebel Stakes to land third. I guess I missed his first six starts, all maidens.
Pros: Creator looks like a horse who is coming into his own at the right time. It took him six starts to find himself, but when he did, he did it in a big way. He closed from the back of the pack to get up and win by 7 ¼ lengths at Oaklawn in February going 1 1/16 miles. From there Asmussen immediately graduated him to stakes company, and he was instantly rewarded as Creator put in a big effort to finish third in the Rebel behind Cupid and Whitmore. Behind Creator was Cherry Wine in fourth, who returned to finish a close third in the G1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and is now being pointed to the Preakness, and my wise-guy horse Suddenbreakingnews. Rewatching the Arkansas Derby I am so very impressed by how Creator split horses and surged to get up and win by 1 1/4th. It takes a special kind of horse to graduate from maiden company to G1 company in just a few efforts.
Cons: Only four horses have broken their maiden in their sixth start and gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. The most recent was Charismatic in 1999, and Real Quiet in 1998 broke his maiden in his 7th start. Prior to that you have to go all the way back to Lawrin in 1938 to find a horse that broke his maiden as late as his 6th start, and Lawrin did it in May of his 2yo year. Creator broke his maiden on February 27th, and the only other Derby winner to break its maiden that late was Brokers Tip in 1933 when he actually broke his maiden in the Derby. Obviously, it is the Kentucky Derby so anything can happen, but I do not like those odds.
Running Style: Drop back to the back of pack, huge sweeping run.
Conclusion: Creator is by no means inexperienced, but his inability to find the winners circle until his 6th start just recently at the end of February gives me reason for concern. I think he will run huge, he has a lot of courage and is willing to find the whole and split horses, but will he be able to get the right trip and find himself in the winners circle? I’m not sure. Either way I’ll use him in my supers.


5. Suddenbreakingnews – Donnie Von Hemel – Louis Quinonez – Samuel F. Henderson
Pros: Killer turn of foot will have him flying at the end of the race. Unfortunately Oaklawn does not have Trakus installed, but if they did I can almost guarantee he ran the fastest final furlong of the Arkansas Derby.  However, Creator had already gotten the jump. He has only been out of the money once, when he was a closing 5th in the Rebel Stakes. He had a wide trip in the Arkansas Derby and encountered traffic troubles, but switching further outside and running down the center of the track he came quick as a bullet to finish second. He is bred to run all day, being a son of Mineshaft out of an Afleet Alex mare, so he should only benefit from the extra 1/8th mile.  His work on 4/29 blew me away, he worked like a monster and registered a quick :59 3/5 seconds for five furlongs.
Cons: Suddenbreakingnews may encounter some traffic issues in the stretch of the Derby. Because half of the field is closers, there is going to be a lot of horses flying late. He let Creator get the jump on him in the Arkansas Derby and he will have to engage early in the Kentucky Derby to ensure he gets into gear in time to hit the wire.
Running Style: Deep closer.
Conclusion: I love this gelding. He’s hearty, comes running, and is bred impeccably for the distance. He is doing everything right heading into the Derby and may be peaking at the right time.


6.  Mor Spirit – Bob Baffert – Gary Stevens – Michael Lund Peterson
Baffert may not have another American Pharoah heading into the 2016 edition of the Derby, but he does have an intriguing contender in Mor Spirit.
Pros: Mor Spirit has run seven times and never been worse than second. He comes in off of a decent second in the Santa Anita Derby, a race that was confusing at best. The slop, quick pace upfront, and explosive move by Exaggerator did less to give me a clearer image of the Derby contenders than anything else. All I know for sure is that Mor Spirit will keep on plugging. He is already a G1 winner in taking the Los Al Futurity last year, and he has run three competitive races this year. He is guaranteed to be running down the stretch, it is just a matter of whether or not the timing will be right and how the pace unfolds.
Cons: He’s almost too much of a plodder. Mor Spirit is the type of horse who needs to make one sustained run at his opponents and he may face traffic issues in the stretch of the Derby. Not only that but I am also worried about Gary Stevens’ ability to close on a horse such as Mor Spirit, one that needs encouragement and a hard ride to the wire. He doesn't like mud in his face, and traffic scares him. And here's a handy angle, none of Bob's kids other than Bode will be attending the Derby. They were all there for American Pharoah.
Running Style: Midpack, one sustained effort.
Conclusion: I really like where I think this talented son of Eskendereya will be sitting, midpack, but I am worried about his (lack of) a turn of foot. He will make one long drive and if he doesn’t experience traffic issues and hasn't taken a lot of dirt to the face, it should help him to hit the board. 

7. Exaggerator – Keith Desormeaux – Kent Desormeaux – Big Chief Racing, LLC and others
No idea what to make of the Santa Anita Derby. Let’s begin.
Pros: Always shows up, never gets the job down. He enters the sloppy Santa Anita Derby, takes back and with the fast pace puts in a killer move to make his opponents look like they’re standing still. He wins by 6 1/4th lengths. Did the tactic change benefit him? We know he can run in slop, so that is great. He got a high figure for his Santa Anita Derby and he is by Curlin, so we know he doesn’t have serious distance limitations up top. Vindication being his broodmare sire, he still had the precocity to be relevant as a 2yo, taking the Saratoga Special and Delta Downs Jackpot. Is he peaking at the right time? He’s run at five different racetracks as well, so that’s a plus. We know he can travel and adapt.
Cons: Always second best when running against Nyquist. Benefited from an insane pace set by Danzing Candy so the Santa Anita Derby set up for him perfectly. I just do not love him. He's a funky mover on the track as well, a lot of knee action.
Running Style: He was more of a midpack horse but in his last start became a real closer, flying from the back. Add him to the giant list of closers coming on late.
Conclusion: I know people love him, the California preps were considered the best, and he’s ranked in the top 3 on almost everyone’s Derby list. I’m just not sure that last race of his was a fluke and he’s just second best to the top tier. Guess we will find out soon.

8. Mohaymen – Kiaran McLaughlin – Junior Alvarado – Shadwell
If you draw a line through the Florida Derby, Mohaymen is one of the top contenders. Luckily his failure to fire in the Florida Derby has allowed for many excuses as to his poor performance, so we will ignore it.
Pros: A $2.2 million purchase, Mohaymen has really lived up to his billing. Prior to the Florida Derby he was undefeated, sweeping four consecutive Grade 1 races following his maiden victory at Belmont in September. He’s got very impressive tactical speed and during his undefeated streak was never challenged, winning for fun each time. The Florida Derby was a strange race over a sloppy track where Mohaymen went very wide throughout, so it may be a toss. If it is, then this horse has done nothing wrong. Neil McLaughlin said the only horse he can compare Mohaymen to is Invasor, Shadwell’s freaky 8x G1 winner. Not bad company to keep. Not to mention his breeze on 4/29 was quite interesting. He almost threw his rider before the work started while repeatedly leaping through the air and he was not allowed to gallop out much but he did it all easily and quickly. He looks like a horse who is peaking at the right time and feeling full of himself.
Cons: His Florida Derby was a complete disaster. Sure he was forced wide on a weird surface, but he hit a complete wall and Junior had no horse under him. Additionally, the horses that he has been beating are awful. Nyquist was his first real test and Nyquist easily put him away.
Running Style: Tactical speed will be a huge advantage for this horse. He’s naturally very fast and he can also rate.
Conclusion: He is a bit of a dark horse. Draw a line through his Florida Derby, he's the second choice after Nyquist. With it, he's morning line 10-1. Will he show up on Saturday?


9. Outwork – Todd Pletcher – Johnny Velazquez – Repole Stable
His work on 4/29 changed my mind a little on this big boy.
Pros: His final tuneup for the Kentucky Derby was just a monstrous move, completely decimating his solid workmate Azar and doing it impressively. He’s got a little knee action but it doesn’t matter, that was a big big work. Personally loathed the Wood Memorial, it was the slowest running ever and he barely held off Trojan Nation, a maiden. Ignoring that, he was precocious enough to win as an early 2yo in April at Keeneland. He got a long time off after that to mature and came back at Tampa as an allowance winner in February. He immediately went to the Tampa Bay Derby where he lost to stablemate Destin by a length. He followed that up with a victory in the not impressive Wood Memorial, but it was a win. He’s a speedy horse and he’s bred to be a longer distance Uncle Mo type, as his broodmare sire is Empire Maker. His dam is a ½ to the much exalted Cairo Prince, so he’s a super classy pedigree.
Cons: He’s slow. Or at least, his Wood was incredibly slow. He was a toss for me but his work returned him to this list. He barely beat a maiden last out. The Wood hasn’t produced many Derby winners recently. Todd has a horrid record in the Derby.
Running Style: He’ll be up on the lead or pressing it.
Conclusion: Still do not love him but was impressed enough by how he swallowed up ground in his work to add him back here. He’s got the right running style to be relevant and he’s got Johnny Velazquez up who sure knows his way around the Derby field.

1. Shagaf - Chad Brown - Joel Rosario - Shadwell
Pros: Heading into the Wood Memorial Shagaf looked like a very nice horse for Shadwell, also undefeated. He was an easy winner of the Gotham at Aqueduct and it seemed as though Shadwell was heading into the final Derby preps with a full hand. Shagaf is by Bernardini out of an Unbridled's Song mare who is half sister to a BC Marathon winner. He probably can get the distance, though I am not a huge fan of Bernardini or Unbridled's Song. I love how he looked out on the track Thursday morning, full of energy and strong.
Cons: He had a rough trip in the wood and was toasted by a maiden and Outwork. He is trained by Chad Brown, who is not famous for his reputation as a Derby contender trainer, or a dirt trainer. He is going to have to step up in a big way here.
Running Style: Midpack or tracking. He will most likely be sitting midpack in this field however.
Conclusion: He has a shot and at 20-1 morning line, why not use him? He is not likely to drop much lower than that.

Best of luck to everyone on Derby day! May the jockeys and horses come home safe.