It's finally here! Super Saturday.
R1: G3 Mahab Al Shimaal – 1200m(6F) – Dirt -
$350,000
8 Drafted – 6 Thammin – 4 Lavaspin
Drafted is
the standout for me in this race. He was a strong winner in his last, and
probably should have won the one prior had he not entirely missed the break.
That would have put him on a three-race win streak. Fortunately for him, there’s
plenty of speed here to suit his terrific turn of foot at the end of the race.
Thammin was a good winner of the listed Jebel Ali Sprint in his last start,
first attempt on the dirt. Round out with Lavaspin for Satish Seemar who is
coming in off a three-race win streak. He likes to run forwardly placed, but
with other speed in the race and a step up in class it could be a challenge for
him to hit the wire in front, will stay for the board.
R2: Listed – Al Bastakiya – 1900m(9.5F) –
Dirt - $300,000
13 Estihdaaf – 10 Grecko – 3 Divine Image
A really
difficult race to analyze here. It’s relatively competitive, but the better
horses have rotten draws. Estihdaaf broke a hair slow last time but was
benefited by an inside post and rushed forward to secure a good trip. He isn’t
so lucky here from gate 13, and he’s likely to have to settle outside in a non-ideal
spot if that scenario happens again. Grecko
put in an excellent run last time under top weight after a long layoff, having
not run since June the year prior, and transferring stables, and multiple
countries. Unfortunately, as a southern hemisphere 3yo he is still carrying top
weight in the field, but he should be fitter in this start. Frankie Dettori
gets the mount here, which ensures that Grecko will be given every chance from
gate 10. Divine Image won the G3 UAE Oaks in her last start a couple of weeks
ago, but wheels back quickly here to face the boys. She was a bit of a headcase
in her first two starts in Meydan, which is worrisome. Still, she’s incredibly talented
naturally. She gets 4 kilos from her
last start, and 2 from the boys here, which will be beneficial to her. However,
regular jock William Buick is off her and replaced by Brett Doyle who is making
the 53 kilos, which is interesting.
R3: G3 – And al Sheba Turf Sprint – 1200m(6F)
– Turf - $350,000
7 Mazzini – 9 Blue Point – 1 Ekhtiyaar
Going to try
to turn the tables on Blue Point’s favoritism with Mazzini, who has won his
last four starts. He’s done very well in the Fawzi Nass barn and looks the part
every morning on the track. Even despite missing the break in his last start,
taking him out of his general forwardly-placed run style, he got up to win by
2.5 lengths. Blue Point was obviously
superbly impressive in the G2 Meydan Sprint a few weeks ago, making him the
clear favorite here as he’s already a G1 winner as well. Appleby has been on
fire, this is Blue Point’s race to lose, but worth a shot beating him here.
Round out with Ekhtiyaar for Shadwell and Doug Watson. He was a very sound
winner in his last start, winning over the trip by 5.25 lengths, and could hit
the board here. I’d like to add Hit the Bid for those playing exotics at home (‘Merica)
as well.
R4: G3 – Burj Nahaar – 1600m(8F) – Dirt -
$350,000
7 Moqarrab – 1 Muntazah – 4 Good Curry
Going with
the outsider of the Shadwell horses, Moqarrab. Moqarrab put in a very strong
performance for his first dirt start here a couple weeks ago, flying from the
back late to miss the wire by a short head to Rodaini. The extra furlong in
trip will help him here, and look for him to cross the wire in front. Muntazah
was excellent in his last start, the G3
Firebreak Stakes, winning by 4.5 easy lengths over a good field. While I’m
picking against him for the sake of price, he will be hard to beat and is the
chose one of the Shadwell triplet. Good Curry, one of two Turkish horses at the
meet, ran a good fourth beaten three in his Meydan debut on Valentine’s Day.
That was over six furlongs, and the stretch out in trip is ideal for him as his
Turkish G1 wins have come over 1500m, and a second in a G1 over 2200m.
R5: G2 – Dubai City of Gold – 2410m(12F) –
Turf - $300,000
5 Spotify – 7 Prince of Arran – 2 Old
Persian
As there isn’t
any other proven speed in the race, Spotify should be able to make the lead and
set his own fractions – which will leave him quite dangerous. James Doyle slows
down the pace and it’s Spotify’s race to lose. Prince of Arran was quite the
world traveler last season, running third in the Melbourne Cup before heading
to Sha Tin where he got quite unlucky in trip and ran mid-pack. He looks fresh
and is fully capable of the distance, and travel clearly does not bother him
either. Round out with Old Persian who was a multiple G2 winner last year over
the distance. He actually beat Cross Counter, eventual Melbourne Cup winner, in
August at York but was last spotted running an average race over a bit further
at Doncaster. He returns to his ideal trip here and should be very competitive
with William Buick in the irons.
R6: G1 – Al Maktoum Challenge R3 – 2000m(10F)
– Dirt - $600,000
6 Dolkong – 2 Thunder Snow – 3 New Trails
A thrilling
edition of the final leg of the Maktoum Challenge, with last year’s Dubai World
Cup winner Thunder Snow returning to the track. I’m going to play against him
and take the Korean horse Dolkong on top after his 9.5 length romp last week. A
very impressive race, he was an easy winner and may be able to beat Thunder
Snow here. Thunder Snow obviously has a superb record but banking on him
needing a start prior to the World Cup and using this more as prep than as a
goal. Round out with New Trails who was flying late to run second to North America
last out. He steps up another 100 meters here, and he’s clearly been coming
into his own on the dirt in Dubai.
R7: G1 – Jebel Hatta – 1800m(9F) – Turf -
$400,000
9 Dream Castle – 1 Majestic Mambo – 4 Century
Dream
Dream Castle
is a deserving favorite for Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin. He’s been dominant
in his last two starts at Meydan, winning both with ease. He’s likely to settle
mid-pack and if he doesn’t get in trouble with traffic he’ll be able to close
strong at the end. Majestic Mambo makes his Dubai debut for Mike de Kock, and
he’s been training very well. This is a hard ask but he has every chance to hit
the board. Finally, Simon Crisford’s Century Dream was a good second to Mythical
Magic in the G2 Zabeel Mile after being forwardly placed. Another horse worth a
mention out of that race is Wootton, who unleashed a lightning quick turn of
foot to land fourth there.
