R1 – The Easy Goer S. - $150,000 – 1 1/16 M – 3yos
2 Cupid – 3 Rally Cry – 1 Race Me Home (Ire) – 5 Economic
Model
Pretty obvious here. Cupid coming back after surgery to
correct his breathing, most likely going to romp. Insanely talented horse.
Rally Cry is alright, nice winner of an allowance last out in good time. Race
Me Home (Ire) will probably prefer two-turn races, but he is very well bred as
a son of the MG1W mare Society Selection. Round out with Chad Brown’s Economic
Model who won an allowance here at Belmont last month.
R2 – Alw 90000N1X – 1 1/16 M – 3yo+
6 Connect – 2 Eagle Scout – 5 Doctor Mounty – 1 Lemon Drop
Title
Connect stretches out here for Chad Brown after breaking his
maiden in his second start at 6 ½ furlongs a month prior. A son of Curlin, he
should have no problem with the distance and he has the top connections of Chad
Brown and Javier Castellano. Chad is quite high on this horse and he should run
well here.
Eagle Scout is a well bred son of Tapit, his dam being ½ to
Funny Cide. His last start was a lackluster 5th, well beaten as the
favorite at Keeneland, but trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to ready horses for
big days at Belmont Park.
Doctor Mounty for Shug McGaughery took four tries to break
his maiden but he finally got the job done over the same trip here at Belmont
and he was second in his two previous attempts.
R3 – The Acorn – G1 - $700,000 – 1 M – 3yoF
5 Cathryn Sophia – 6 Go Maggie Go – 4 Carina Mia – 2 Off the
Tracks
Hard to pick against Cathryn Sophia after her dominant
victory in the G1 Kentucky Oaks in May. She has the ability to go to the lead
or track, so unless she sends and gets hooked in a speed duel, it is unlikely
that she will be tired. Last out she breezed a bullet.
Next up is Go Maggie Go, the impressive Dale Romans trainee
who enters off a convincing victory in the G2 Black Eyed Susan three weeks ago.
She barely missed the jump for second in the KY Oaks in just her third lifetime
start, and she is improving with every race. The smaller field will protect her
from trip trouble and this filly will be soaring late. I just wonder if it is a
hair too short for her at a mile.
Carina Mia ran a bang up race in the G2 Eight Belles last
out and she is no doubt talented. It will be interesting to see how she fares
today as it was clearly the speed duel in the Ashland that wore her out to
finish fourth.
Off the Tracks was duel entered for a stake on Friday but as
NYRA rules go, she had to scratch in preference for this race. She is no doubt
a nice filly but I am not yet sure she is up to the class standards of the top
three.
R4 – The Brooklyn Invitational – G2 - $400,000 – 1 ½ M – 4yo+
R5 – The Ogden Phipps – G1 - $1,000,000 – 1 1/16 M – F&M
4yos+
5 Curalina – 4 Cavorting – 6 Forever Unbridled – 2 Stopchargingmaria
Is this the best race of the entire year so far? I would say
so. I’ll take Curalina on top after a devastating performance in her first
start as a 4yo, beating up the field in the G1 La Troienne Stakes at Churchill
one month ago. Granted, the field was not killer, but it did include Sheer
Drama, who was coming in off of a win in the G1 Madison. This lovely Curlin
filly seems to have really stepped up her game, and we all know that Todd has
them fully cranked for a big day of racing.
Cavorting enters off of a killer performance in the G2
Ruffian, crushing homer Carrumba with relative ease. She’s never been this far
before but it is still a one-turn event, so she should not be too troubled. She
looked like a good thing coming home in her last to win by 5, and this is only
1/16th of a mile further on the same track, so she should be able to
do it.
Forever Unbridled may be one of the nicest fillies Dallas
Stewart has ever trained, and her mother won the Kentucky Oaks. She enters off
a convincing win in the G1 Apple Blossom Stakes last out and a three race win
streak. Her half-brother Forever d’Oro is running in the Belmont Stakes too, so
Lemons Forever is well represented on one of America’s biggest days of racing.
I round out with Stopchargingmaria who is consistently a
phenomenal talent, but I am taking a stand against her here. She should run
very well with her second start off a layoff, but why not go for the newer
shooters to the distaff division? This is by far the most difficult race of the
day and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these four or Sheer Drama land in
the winner’s circle.
R6 – The Jaipur Invitational – G3 - $300,000 – 6F – 4yo+
8 Mosler – 2 A Lot – 4 Summation Time – 12 Pure Sensation
A salty field of turf sprinters line up in the Jaipur. I’ll
take Bill Mott’s Mosler on top, a horse I’ve always been a big fan of. He was
third in his first start since being off in September, and he should improve
second off a layoff. He’s fired two bullets in his last two works over the turf
at Belmont, and he’ll be ready to roll. He gets Rosario, who is a very strong
finisher, aboard.
A Lot was impressive in his last start at Belmont, going 7F
in the Elusive Quality stakes to win by a nose. This will be his second start
with new trainer Chad Brown, and he’s 6:3-1-1 over the Belmont turf. Cutting
back to sprint distances seems to be to his liking, and he should put in a big effort.
Summation Time is tempting at 15-1 for trainer Christophe
Clement. He’s got a first and second from two starts over the Belmont turf and
he’s been on the board each of his three tries at this distance. His past few
races have set up for his closing kick, but with Rocket Heat here he should be
getting a fast pace to run into regardless. Castellano choses to take off this
horse to ride Ready for Rye, but I am skeptical of that Albertrani trainee’s
true talent as he has not necessarily beat much in the past.
Pure Sensation is another Clement trainee with a chance. He
heads into this race off of a four month break, but if he’s back on track,
should run well.
R7 – The Woody Stephens – G2 - $500,000 – 7F – 3yos
7 Counterforce – 4 Justin Squared – 12 I Will Score – 9 Tom’s
Ready
A very difficult field of three-year-olds is sent forward to
contest the Woody Stephens. I believe with all the speed, either of few of
these horses will try new rating tactics or we are in for a massive speed duel.
Two of the favorites, Sharp Azteca and Justin Squared, will link up in the
suspected speed duel, along with talented Hollendorfer trainee I Will Score, leaving
room for a closer to turn the tables. With that in mind I’ll try
Asmussen-trainee Counterforce, who will be coming with a late kick.
Justin Squared is on the rise and his talent level is still
untapped, so he will hang on potentially with I Will Score, who will have
tougher go of it on the outside. Round out with Dallas Stewart’s Tom’s Ready
who gets blinkers off here.
R7 The Just a Game – G1 - $700,000 – 1 M – F&M 4yo+
9 Irish Rookie (Ire) – 8 Celestine – 10 Faufiler (Ire) – 13 Lady
Lara (Ire)
A competitive field lines up for the Just a Game. I will
take the Euro invader Irish Rookie (Ire) on top, who was second beaten two in
her last start over at the Curragh. Her last start last year was a third beaten
two to the nice Esoterique in a G1. She
will need pace to close into, but luckily there looks to be a few speed horses
in the race.
I also really like Celestine in this race for Bill Mott, who
has three entrants in the field. She comes in off an easy front-running effort
in the G2 Honey Fox, but I do not think she is necessarily a one-dimensional
front runner. She’s two for two here at Belmont on the turf, and she is quite
talented.
Next up I’ll take Faufiler (Ire) for Graham Motion, who
comes in off a nice effort in the G2 Royal Heroine stakes at Santa Anita. She’s
a deep closer and as I said, there will be speed here for her.
Round out with Lady Lara (Ire) who didn’t run well in her
last but prior to that was second to the great Tepin in the G3 Endeavor.
R8 The Met Mile – G1 - $1,250,000 – 1 M – 3yo+
11 Calculator – 5 Frosted – 4 Noble Bird – 10 Tamarkuz
Calculator enters off of two strong efforts in the G2
Churchill Downs S where he was beaten a length by Catalina Red, and prior to
that by a Salutos Amigos who came soaring to win the G1 Carter by head. He will
get the ideal set up here with lots of speed in the race and it’s about time he
steps up.
Frosted is poised to return here after his stint in Dubai
and less than stellar World Cup. This may be a hair too short for him but he
was one of the premier three-year-olds last year and should hopefully improve
off of that form. This field isn’t world beaters and I do not believe in the
Dubai bounce.
Noble Bird ran a hell of race last out to win the Pimlico
Special by 11 ¼ lengths, but he faces much tougher competition here. If he is
rank he flops, if he is not, he will run huge. Hoever, there is a lot of other
speed in the race, and while he can rate, he does his best on the lead.
Tamarkuz, Dubai’s top miler last year, returns for Kiaran
after a long break. Off the layoff he should do well and his campaign last year
was not incredible, but it was not bad. If he tracks the leaders he should be
sitting pretty at the end of the race.
R9 – Woodford Reserve Manhattan – G1 - $1,000,000 – 1 ¼ M –
4yo+
10 Flintshire – 11 Divisdero – 5 Big Blue Kitten - 3 Wake Forest
Flintshire is head and heels over the US turf division and
the only horse who is maybe capable of giving him a run for his money is
Divisdero. I do not understand why he is on first time Lasix, why change
something in his 20th race? Didn’t need it then, doesn’t need it
now. Score US racing.
Divisidero is very nice and ran huge last out. He is the
biggest threat to Flintshire’s dominance. Should be enough speed in there to
send him flying late but I believe Flinty will get the jump on him.
Big Blue Kitten consistently runs well. Pace will benefit
his closing kick as well. Should run huge, loves Belmont with 4 wins and 2
seconds from seven starts.
Round out with Wake Forest (Ger), also for Chad Brown, who
enters off a solid win in the G1 Man o’ War last month at Belmont. He and Big
Blue Kitten are interchangeable for me.
R10 – Belmont Stakes – G1 - $1,500,000 – 1 ½ M – 3yo
11 Exaggerator – 1 Governor Malibu – 3 Cherry Wine – 4
Suddenbreakingnews
Hard to pick against the favorite here. Exaggerator is a son
of Curlin, so he will get the distance, and he is at this point the second-best
3yo colt in the country after Nyquist. He is versatile and should be able to
sit closer to the lead, escaping the Belmont-closer fallacy.
Governor Malibu is an improving son of Malibu Moon who put
in a big effort last out in the G2 Peter Pan, a notorious Belmont prep race,
against the very top quality Unified. He is improving with each start and
should sit a nice trip either tracking or mid-pack. Should get the distance as
well.
Cherry Wine ran a big one last out in the Preakness and
trainer Dale Romans has been vocal about having him more forwardly placed in
this race. He always gives his all and has been steadily improving with each
start.
Round out with Suddenbreakingnews who is a very strong
closer but will be handicapped by his running style here. He always packs a
powerful closing kick, and he is perfectly bred for the distance being a son of
Mineshaft out of an Afleet Alex mare. I would not be surprised if he won
either, but I have to pick against due to his running style.
It was hard for me to toss Creator, who gains the rabbit
Gettysburg and was putting in a huge move on Derby day before being severely
hampered. Brody’s Cause could rebound here as well, and if the two time G1
winner version shows up, he will be right up there at the wire. Lani is an
interesting play just due to his training style and the stamina it must
instill, but mentally he is not there. Destin is also interesting as a more
forwardly placed horse who has a good running style but distance questions
surrounding his name.
