R3 Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile Fillies – 1 1/16 miles - $2,000,000
Songbird has been
an absolute monster out west and looks to be the easy winner here in the
Juvenile Fillies. Seriously, she hasn’t been challenged. She’s a freak and
while this looks to be a nice group of fillies, I believe she is by far the one
to beat. While I love Rachel’s Valentina,
I think her last race took too much out of her. She will also be a short price
so I’m not trying to use her here. Sentimentally I obviously hope she wins
being the huge Rachel fan that I am, but not for the price. There are a few
horses I love at their prices. Land Over Sea for trainer Doug O’Neil has been
on the steady rise, improving with each start. Tap To It was a close second in
the Spinaway in her last attempt where she finished very well to lose only by a
length. Bold Quality is a great price after experiencing major traffic trouble
in her last start (only her second start), where she had to swing wide and
bumped Dream Dance, finishing second but
subsequently getting DQed to third. Finally, it would be silly of me to not
talk about my favorite filly Ma Can Do It who tries hard in every start and
doesn’t let traffic or trip troubles discourage her. She is coming on well and
continues to mature each and every time she runs.
Picks: #10 Songbird (7-5) - #6 Bold Quality (20 – 1) - #2
Tap to It (8-1) - #4 Ma Can Do It (30-1)
R4 Breeders’ Cup Turf
Sprint – 5 ½ furlongs on the turf - $1,000,000
Fourteen horses will contest the Turf Sprint this year, a
race that is always close. Defending champion Bobby’s Kitten returns after only two starts this year. He returned
from the Sprint after a nine month layoff up at Woodbine in a grade 2, where he
was sent and faded to seventh, beaten some eight lengths. Easily excusable
after such a long break. He then ran in the Shadwell Turf Mile where Mike Smith
got the mount for the first time over a yielding turf course. Mike Smith
proceeded to put him in an absolute chokehold for no valid reason, destroying
the horse’s chances as he fought the restraint throughout and was left empty.
Absolutely love him here with Javier Castellano returning to the irons. This
will be his second start at a sprinting distance, first one obviously resulting
in a Breeders’ Cup win, and Chad Brown is always ready to fire, batting at 41%
when switching from routes to sprints.
The Great War
comes in off of a strong third placed effort, beaten only by a head, in the
Nearctic Stakes at Woodbine just thirteen days ago. He gets the expert mount of Ryan Moore, and
will likely sit a strong tracking trip before pouncing. He is 5: 2-2-0 at this
distance, and Wesley Ward’s horses are all ready to go. Breaking from the three post, Ward trainee Undrafted also has a phenomenal shot in
the race. Earlier this year he took the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal
Ascot with a great ride from Frankie Dettori. He returned in September at
Kentucky Downs, landing a decent second to Tourist in the mile More Than Ready.
I love to see him cutting back in distance after the Euro bounce, and regaining
the mount of Frankie Dettori.
Also noteworthy in the race is the filly, Lady Shipman. She is guaranteed to send
to the lead and is just much quicker than anyone else in this field. Her speed
figures lay over her competition, and she has seven wins and a second from
eight starts at the distance. She was most recently second in a stakes here at
Keeneland, losing in the final strides to the good filly Ageless. She looks to put in a strong effort, although this is her
first try against males as well as her first effort in the graded stakes level.
Picks:
#2 Bobby’s Kitten - #10 The Great War - #5 Lady Shipman - #3
Undrafted
R5 Breeders’ Cup Filly
and Mare Sprint – 7 furlongs - $1,000,000
A talented group of fillies and mares assembles for the
Fillies and Mares Sprint, and there are endless options for value. The race is
loaded with speed on the front end, headlined by the super talented mare La Verdad who is heading into the race
off of a single week layoff as she captured the Iroquois at Belmont this past
Saturday. Is she able to return with that devastating speed after just a week?
It’s unclear, but I’m expecting the pace to collapse so looking elsewhere.
I made the mistake a couple years ago of tossing Groupie Doll after she had failed me in
her previous starts all year, and I’m not going to make that mistake this year
with Judy the Beauty. The Wesley
Ward trainee and defending BC F&M Sprint champion hasn’t been as sharp in
her campaign as she was last year, but I expect her to run huge this weekend.
She’s 5: 4 – 0 – 1 at Keeneland, and her last start was semi-excusable as she
was blocked in on the rail for the majority of the stretch before she got clear
and finished third, beaten 1 ¼ lengths. She’s guaranteed to be her sharpest
here as this has been the year-long goal, and Frankie Dettori gets the mount.
And at 20-1, how can you pass up on Artemis Agrotera? She was an absolute monster last year, winning
three consecutive races in the summer by a total of eighteen lengths. Her
Gallant Bloom victory last year was a thing of beauty as she got away slowly,
settled well back in fifth and sustained an incredible run five-wide into La
Verdad’s insanely quick fractions to win by a head. If that filly returns, this
field may well be in for it. She has been training lights out and trainer Mike
Hushion must be confident in her to enter her in this race after a full year
layoff. With Junior Alvarado in the irons, she looks like a force to be reckoned
with.
Cavorting is
another horse that cannot be overlooked, despite drawing poorly on the far rail
in post 14. She has been a force this year, winning her last three easily. Her
last effort in the Prioress was absolutely huge, closing and winning by three. The
possible pace meltdown will set up well for her but she has her hands full with
the post, and taking on older fillies for the first time.
Picks: #11 Judy the Beauty - #5 Artemis Agrotera - #14
Cavorting - #4 La Verdad
R6 Breeders’ Cup
Fillies and Mares Turf – 1 3/16 miles on the turf - $2,000,000
A decent-sized Euro invasion this year for the F&M Turf
is headlined by Coolmore’s Legatissimo
(IRE), a filly who has been an absolute force abroad. She has won three G1s
ovearseas this year, and missed out on adding another two to her resume when
second in each by a nose. Her last race, the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, was
a walk in the park for her, as was her previous at Goodwood in the Nassau
Stakes where she triumphed over Arabian
Queen (3rd), who then went on to hand Arc champion Golden Horn his first defeat. She lays
over the field in terms of talent, and with Ryan Moore aboard, should sit the
perfect trip.
Miss France is
another European entrant who has a good shot at the win. She has only run twice
this year, finishing second by a neck in her first start after an 11 month
layoff, and then returning a month later in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein where
she was second by a half-length in a super game effort. Frankie Dettori gets
the mount and she’ll be close up to the pace, which will benefit her as there
isn’t a lot of speed in this race. With Frankie Dettori at the helm, she looks
highly competitive.
The two Chad Brown runners of Dacita and Stephanie’s
Kitten are also entrants that cannot be overlooked with great value. Dacita
enters off of a dominating victory in her first start in the United States,
coming from the rear of the pack to win the Ballston Spa with an incredible
turn of foot. She is a Chilean import who is a three-time graded stakes winner
in her home country. Stephanie’s Kitten is a proven warrior who was second in
this race last year. She seems to be
rounding back into form after two poorer starts earlier this year. In her last
start she was an easy winner after sitting a tracking trip into an incredibly
slow pace in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont. Prior to that she was
third in the Beverly D after having to check hard in the final stages as
first-past-the-post Secret Gesture
swerved out and cut her off. Secret Gesture was disqualified and placed third.
Picks: #3 Legatissimo - #8 Dacita - #9 Miss France - #11
Stephanie’s Kitten
R7 Breeders’ Cup Sprint
– 6 furlongs - $1,500,000
The Sprint has drawn an excellent field this year headlined
by the two speedsters Private Zone and
Runhappy. Both are extremely fast
and send straight to the lead. However, I believe post 14 for Private Zone will
be difficult to overcome as such speed horses inside of him as Runhappy and Masochistic are sure to send, which
will leave Private Zone out wide. He does his best from the inside and not
receiving the rail is sure to hamper his chances. I do not think he is quick
enough to get inside, even if Runhappy breaks slowly. The three of them will go
at it on the lead and I am expecting a pace meltdown, which will allow for California
closers Wild Dude and Kobe’s Back to get up, first and second
respectively in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in their last start, after
some torrid fractions. Another closer to keep an eye on is Salutos Amigos, the New York veteran.
Picks: #8 Wild Dude (10-1) - #5 Runhappy (3-1) - #2 Kobe’s
Back (15-1) - #13 Private Zone (5-2)
R8 Breeders’ Cup Mile
– 1 Mile - $2,000,000
This is a very
difficult field to decipher for this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
The European contingent is strong, with MG1 winners Esoterique and Make Believe
drawing the eye. Esoterique enters off of a victory in the G1 Sun Chariot
Stakes at Newmarket. Prior to that she was the victor of the G1 Prix Jacques Le
Marois in August, which was prefaced by two close seconds in Group 1s. One of
those included a length loss to Solow, one of the best milers in Europe. She
will have a lot of pace to run into with the likes of Obviously, fellow Euro Make Believe, Tourist, and Tepin. Make
Believe has won two Group 1s in Europe this year, most recently the Prix de la
Foret at Longchamp. He was an uninspiring fifth in his prior start, the St.
James Palace Stakes, in June.
Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie is back again as well. Last year he was a quick closer,
but he has demonstrated some early speed as well. He had some issues after last year’s mile and
only returned to the races in August, when sixth to Esoterique. After that in
his most recent start he was third in the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp, and he
seems to be rounding back into form. Karakonite is versatile and should be quite
competitive here, especially at odds of 12-1.
Another horse to consider is Time Test, who ships in after
his most recent start, a win in the G2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket in
September. Prior to that he was fourth
in the Juddmonte International Stakes behind Arabian Queen, Golden Horn, and The Grey Gatsby. Time Test
retains Ryan Moore for the mount and has only been off the board in one
lifetime start.
A lot of people are quite high on Tepin, who looked very dominant in her last start when taking the
First Lady at Keeneland a few weeks back by seven lengths. She is 4: 3 -1 – 0 from
lifetime starts at this distance, but I’m not quite sure she will be able to
contest the Euro contingent.
Picks: #9 Esoterique (7-2) - #11 Karakonite (12-1) - #12
Time Test (6-1) - #7 Tepin (12-1)
R9 - Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile – 1 1/16 miles - $2,000,000
This year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile includes a
wide-ranging set of precocious colts all vying to secure their claim to the
title of champion two year old. Brody’s
Cause, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity here at Keeneland earlier this
month has been installed as the morning-line favorite. Brody has been an
impressive winner in his last two starts, making large sweeping moves from the
back of the pack to burst to impressive victories. Meanwhile, west coast
invader Nyquist ships in for Doug O’Neil.
He has dominated in California, taking the Best Pal, Del Mar Futurity, and
Front Runner Stakes, as well as his maiden, making him four for four. Most
recently in the Front Runner he battled back Swipe who snuck up the rail to try and take the victory. However,
Nyquist was not as dominant as he was in his previous starts, raising distance
concerns. He is very beatable here at his short price.
Horses to watch include Brody’s Cause, with a G1 victory
already here at this distance and Exaggerator who was a good second sneaking up
the rail and out of engaging distance with Brody’s Cause in the Futurity.
Additionally, Cocked and Loaded at
12-1. His two non-winning efforts came with excuses as he had a horrible trip
in the Sanford when he was sixth beaten 3 ½ lengths, and put in a lousy effort
on a synthetic track. Other than that he was dominant in his maiden, excellent
in the Tremont, and impressive in the Iroquois. Also in the Iroquois was Unbridled Outlaw, who was the victim of
a tiring speed horses backing into him on the far side, and then had to check
again in the turn, but still put in a rally for third. His prior race was when
he beat out Rated R Superstar, who
was then third to Brody’s Cause in the Futurity. Finally, Swipe at 15-1 is a
gift. He is the constantly improving, under-the-radar west coast horse who
narrowly lost to Nyquist in the Front Runner. A son of Birdstone, he is
definitely a two-turn horse and will continue to improve as the distance stretches.
Picks: #4 Unbridled Outlaw - #7 Brody’s Cause - #12 Swipe -
#5 Cocked and Loaded
R10 Breeders’ Cup
Turf – 1 ½ Miles - $3,000,000
Golden Horn
absolutely lays over this field in terms of class. Coming in off an Arc
victory, he will be the first Arc winner ever to contest the Breeders’ Cup
Turf. He’s been instilled as the 4-5 morning line favorite, and rightfully so,
as he looks to be an absolute lock. I will confess he had a few question marks
for me- especially with his odd loss to Arabian
Queen, and his questionable victory over Found and Free Eagle,
when he badly hampered the latter in the QIPCO Irish Champions Stakes. He also
found himself with the perfect trip under Frankie Dettori in the Arc, but
regardless, he has emerged as the solid favorite.
Shining Copper
has been entered in the field as the rabbit for Big Blue Kitten. He is sure to set torrid fractions up front to set
up for his stablemate, but I’m opting against Big Blue Kitten for the Arc
winner. I will follow him up with The
Pizza Man, who has been an absolute monster this year as a six year old. He
took the Arlington Million at his home track in a super impressive fashion over
BBK, and looked great doing it. Most recently he was a rapidly diminishing
second to longshot Grand Arch in the Shadwell Turf Mile back here on October
third.
Picks: #1 Golden Horn (4-5) - #10 The Pizza Man (15-1) - #7
Big Blue Kitten (8-1) - #9 Found (8-1)
R11 Breeders' Cup Classic - 1 1/4 Miles - $5,000,000
What a thrilling edition of the Classic. The first Triple Crown winner ever to exist in the Breeders' Cup era goes for the newly founded title of the "Grand Slam" Incredible stuff. Luckily for American Pharoah, it looks to set up perfectly for him. With the defection of Beholder, American Pharoah will be able to send and have the pace all his own way. The Awesome Again winner Smooth Roller's connections have threatened to send, but the horse is relatively untested with only four starts beneath his belt, beating a battered field of older males in that victory, his first graded stakes. Frosted generally sits a tracking trip and has had an absolutely stellar season for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, coming in off a win in the Pennsylvania Derby after a phenomenal effort in the Travers. Also sitting more forward than usual will be the giant killer, Keen Ice. The Romans trainee looks to repeat his Triple Crown champion-beating run in a big way here, and has a stellar chance. His work on Saturday was unbelievable as Tammy Fox literally was standing in the irons trying to pull him down before an outrider finally came to her aid.
Tonalist drew the rail which concerns me because he is a massive horse who likes to make one long, powerful drive. I think it'll hamper his chances. Honor Code has been fantastic in his winning efforts this year and questionable (to some) in his losing, and his one-turn mile prep was odd, to say the least. It appears as though trainer Shug McGaughey is trying to inject some speed into him, especially with the monster bullets he has been working. He won't be able to lose touch with the field here, so unless he pulls himself too far out of it, expect a huge run off the pace, but the upfront fractions won't be fast if it plays as I imagine, so he will run out of room.
Effinex is flying a bit under the radar this year as he has the most wins of any horse at this distance, being 4: 2 - 0 - 1, and despite his own peculiar hang-ups has been a nice older horse. I don't believe Gleneagles will take to the turf. Also Hard Aces is running. Woopie.
Call me crazy but I could see this being the year of the three-year-old. Bring it home boys.
Picks: #2 Keen Ice (12-1) - #4 American Pharoah (6-5) - #3 Frosted (15-1) - #7 Smooth Roller (15-1)
