Breeders' Cup Selections

R3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – 1 1/16 miles - $2,000,000

Songbird has been an absolute monster out west and looks to be the easy winner here in the Juvenile Fillies. Seriously, she hasn’t been challenged. She’s a freak and while this looks to be a nice group of fillies, I believe she is by far the one to beat. While I love Rachel’s Valentina, I think her last race took too much out of her. She will also be a short price so I’m not trying to use her here. Sentimentally I obviously hope she wins being the huge Rachel fan that I am, but not for the price. There are a few horses I love at their prices. Land Over Sea for trainer Doug O’Neil has been on the steady rise, improving with each start. Tap To It was a close second in the Spinaway in her last attempt where she finished very well to lose only by a length. Bold Quality is a great price after experiencing major traffic trouble in her last start (only her second start), where she had to swing wide and bumped  Dream Dance, finishing second but subsequently getting DQed to third. Finally, it would be silly of me to not talk about my favorite filly Ma Can Do It who tries hard in every start and doesn’t let traffic or trip troubles discourage her. She is coming on well and continues to mature each and every time she runs.

Picks: #10 Songbird (7-5) - #6 Bold Quality (20 – 1) - #2 Tap to It (8-1) - #4 Ma Can Do It (30-1)

R4 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – 5 ½ furlongs on the turf - $1,000,000

Fourteen horses will contest the Turf Sprint this year, a race that is always close. Defending champion Bobby’s Kitten returns after only two starts this year. He returned from the Sprint after a nine month layoff up at Woodbine in a grade 2, where he was sent and faded to seventh, beaten some eight lengths. Easily excusable after such a long break. He then ran in the Shadwell Turf Mile where Mike Smith got the mount for the first time over a yielding turf course. Mike Smith proceeded to put him in an absolute chokehold for no valid reason, destroying the horse’s chances as he fought the restraint throughout and was left empty. Absolutely love him here with Javier Castellano returning to the irons. This will be his second start at a sprinting distance, first one obviously resulting in a Breeders’ Cup win, and Chad Brown is always ready to fire, batting at 41% when switching from routes to sprints.

The Great War comes in off of a strong third placed effort, beaten only by a head, in the Nearctic Stakes at Woodbine just thirteen days ago.  He gets the expert mount of Ryan Moore, and will likely sit a strong tracking trip before pouncing. He is 5: 2-2-0 at this distance, and Wesley Ward’s horses are all ready to go.  Breaking from the three post, Ward trainee Undrafted also has a phenomenal shot in the race. Earlier this year he took the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot with a great ride from Frankie Dettori. He returned in September at Kentucky Downs, landing a decent second to Tourist in the mile More Than Ready. I love to see him cutting back in distance after the Euro bounce, and regaining the mount of Frankie Dettori.

Also noteworthy in the race is the filly, Lady Shipman. She is guaranteed to send to the lead and is just much quicker than anyone else in this field. Her speed figures lay over her competition, and she has seven wins and a second from eight starts at the distance. She was most recently second in a stakes here at Keeneland, losing in the final strides to the good filly Ageless. She looks to put in a strong effort, although this is her first try against males as well as her first effort in the graded stakes level.

Picks:

#2 Bobby’s Kitten - #10 The Great War - #5 Lady Shipman - #3 Undrafted

R5 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint – 7 furlongs - $1,000,000

A talented group of fillies and mares assembles for the Fillies and Mares Sprint, and there are endless options for value. The race is loaded with speed on the front end, headlined by the super talented mare La Verdad who is heading into the race off of a single week layoff as she captured the Iroquois at Belmont this past Saturday. Is she able to return with that devastating speed after just a week? It’s unclear, but I’m expecting the pace to collapse so looking elsewhere.

I made the mistake a couple years ago of tossing Groupie Doll after she had failed me in her previous starts all year, and I’m not going to make that mistake this year with Judy the Beauty. The Wesley Ward trainee and defending BC F&M Sprint champion hasn’t been as sharp in her campaign as she was last year, but I expect her to run huge this weekend. She’s 5: 4 – 0 – 1 at Keeneland, and her last start was semi-excusable as she was blocked in on the rail for the majority of the stretch before she got clear and finished third, beaten 1 ¼ lengths. She’s guaranteed to be her sharpest here as this has been the year-long goal, and Frankie Dettori gets the mount.

And at 20-1, how can you pass up on Artemis Agrotera? She was an absolute monster last year, winning three consecutive races in the summer by a total of eighteen lengths. Her Gallant Bloom victory last year was a thing of beauty as she got away slowly, settled well back in fifth and sustained an incredible run five-wide into La Verdad’s insanely quick fractions to win by a head. If that filly returns, this field may well be in for it. She has been training lights out and trainer Mike Hushion must be confident in her to enter her in this race after a full year layoff. With Junior Alvarado in the irons, she looks like a force to be reckoned with.

Cavorting is another horse that cannot be overlooked, despite drawing poorly on the far rail in post 14. She has been a force this year, winning her last three easily. Her last effort in the Prioress was absolutely huge, closing and winning by three. The possible pace meltdown will set up well for her but she has her hands full with the post, and taking on older fillies for the first time.

Picks: #11 Judy the Beauty - #5 Artemis Agrotera - #14 Cavorting - #4 La Verdad

R6 Breeders’ Cup Fillies and Mares Turf – 1 3/16 miles on the turf - $2,000,000

A decent-sized Euro invasion this year for the F&M Turf is headlined by Coolmore’s Legatissimo (IRE), a filly who has been an absolute force abroad. She has won three G1s ovearseas this year, and missed out on adding another two to her resume when second in each by a nose. Her last race, the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown, was a walk in the park for her, as was her previous at Goodwood in the Nassau Stakes where she triumphed over Arabian Queen (3^rd), who then went on to hand Arc champion Golden Horn his first defeat. She lays over the field in terms of talent, and with Ryan Moore aboard, should sit the perfect trip.

Miss France is another European entrant who has a good shot at the win. She has only run twice this year, finishing second by a neck in her first start after an 11 month layoff, and then returning a month later in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein where she was second by a half-length in a super game effort. Frankie Dettori gets the mount and she’ll be close up to the pace, which will benefit her as there isn’t a lot of speed in this race. With Frankie Dettori at the helm, she looks highly competitive.

The two Chad Brown runners of Dacita and Stephanie’s Kitten are also entrants that cannot be overlooked with great value. Dacita enters off of a dominating victory in her first start in the United States, coming from the rear of the pack to win the Ballston Spa with an incredible turn of foot. She is a Chilean import who is a three-time graded stakes winner in her home country. Stephanie’s Kitten is a proven warrior who was second in this race last year.  She seems to be rounding back into form after two poorer starts earlier this year. In her last start she was an easy winner after sitting a tracking trip into an incredibly slow pace in the Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont. Prior to that she was third in the Beverly D after having to check hard in the final stages as first-past-the-post Secret Gesture swerved out and cut her off. Secret Gesture was disqualified and placed third.

Picks: #3 Legatissimo - #8 Dacita - #9 Miss France - #11 Stephanie’s Kitten

R7 Breeders’ Cup Sprint – 6 furlongs - $1,500,000

The Sprint has drawn an excellent field this year headlined by the two speedsters Private Zone and Runhappy. Both are extremely fast and send straight to the lead. However, I believe post 14 for Private Zone will be difficult to overcome as such speed horses inside of him as Runhappy and Masochistic are sure to send, which will leave Private Zone out wide. He does his best from the inside and not receiving the rail is sure to hamper his chances. I do not think he is quick enough to get inside, even if Runhappy breaks slowly. The three of them will go at it on the lead and I am expecting a pace meltdown, which will allow for California closers Wild Dude and Kobe’s Back to get up, first and second respectively in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship in their last start, after some torrid fractions. Another closer to keep an eye on is Salutos Amigos, the New York veteran.

Picks: #8 Wild Dude (10-1) - #5 Runhappy (3-1) - #2 Kobe’s Back (15-1) - #13 Private Zone (5-2)

R8 Breeders’ Cup Mile – 1 Mile - $2,000,000

 This is a very difficult field to decipher for this year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. The European contingent is strong, with MG1 winners Esoterique and Make Believe drawing the eye. Esoterique enters off of a victory in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket. Prior to that she was the victor of the G1 Prix Jacques Le Marois in August, which was prefaced by two close seconds in Group 1s. One of those included a length loss to Solow, one of the best milers in Europe. She will have a lot of pace to run into with the likes of Obviously, fellow Euro Make Believe, Tourist, and Tepin. Make Believe has won two Group 1s in Europe this year, most recently the Prix de la Foret at Longchamp. He was an uninspiring fifth in his prior start, the St. James Palace Stakes, in June.

Defending BC Mile champion Karakontie is back again as well. Last year he was a quick closer, but he has demonstrated some early speed as well.  He had some issues after last year’s mile and only returned to the races in August, when sixth to Esoterique. After that in his most recent start he was third in the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp, and he seems to be rounding back into form. Karakonite is versatile and should be quite competitive here, especially at odds of 12-1.

Another horse to consider is Time Test, who ships in after his most recent start, a win in the G2 Joel Stakes at Newmarket in September.  Prior to that he was fourth in the Juddmonte International Stakes behind Arabian Queen, Golden Horn, and The Grey Gatsby.  Time Test retains Ryan Moore for the mount and has only been off the board in one lifetime start.

A lot of people are quite high on Tepin, who looked very dominant in her last start when taking the First Lady at Keeneland a few weeks back by seven lengths. She is 4: 3 -1 – 0 from lifetime starts at this distance, but I’m not quite sure she will be able to contest the Euro contingent.

Picks: #9 Esoterique (7-2) - #11 Karakonite (12-1) - #12 Time Test (6-1) - #7 Tepin (12-1)

R9 - Breeders’ Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16 miles -  $2,000,000

This year’s edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile includes a wide-ranging set of precocious colts all vying to secure their claim to the title of champion two year old. Brody’s Cause, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity here at Keeneland earlier this month has been installed as the morning-line favorite. Brody has been an impressive winner in his last two starts, making large sweeping moves from the back of the pack to burst to impressive victories. Meanwhile, west coast invader Nyquist ships in for Doug O’Neil. He has dominated in California, taking the Best Pal, Del Mar Futurity, and Front Runner Stakes, as well as his maiden, making him four for four. Most recently in the Front Runner he battled back Swipe who snuck up the rail to try and take the victory. However, Nyquist was not as dominant as he was in his previous starts, raising distance concerns. He is very beatable here at his short price.

Horses to watch include Brody’s Cause, with a G1 victory already here at this distance and Exaggerator who was a good second sneaking up the rail and out of engaging distance with Brody’s Cause in the Futurity. Additionally, Cocked and Loaded at 12-1. His two non-winning efforts came with excuses as he had a horrible trip in the Sanford when he was sixth beaten 3 ½ lengths, and put in a lousy effort on a synthetic track. Other than that he was dominant in his maiden, excellent in the Tremont, and impressive in the Iroquois. Also in the Iroquois was Unbridled Outlaw, who was the victim of a tiring speed horses backing into him on the far side, and then had to check again in the turn, but still put in a rally for third. His prior race was when he beat out Rated R Superstar, who was then third to Brody’s Cause in the Futurity. Finally, Swipe at 15-1 is a gift. He is the constantly improving, under-the-radar west coast horse who narrowly lost to Nyquist in the Front Runner. A son of Birdstone, he is definitely a two-turn horse and will continue to improve as the distance stretches.

Picks: #4 Unbridled Outlaw - #7 Brody’s Cause - #12 Swipe - #5 Cocked and Loaded

R10 Breeders’ Cup Turf – 1 ½ Miles - $3,000,000

Golden Horn absolutely lays over this field in terms of class. Coming in off an Arc victory, he will be the first Arc winner ever to contest the Breeders’ Cup Turf. He’s been instilled as the 4-5 morning line favorite, and rightfully so, as he looks to be an absolute lock. I will confess he had a few question marks for me- especially with his odd loss to Arabian Queen, and his questionable victory over Found and Free Eagle, when he badly hampered the latter in the QIPCO Irish Champions Stakes. He also found himself with the perfect trip under Frankie Dettori in the Arc, but regardless, he has emerged as the solid favorite.

Shining Copper has been entered in the field as the rabbit for Big Blue Kitten. He is sure to set torrid fractions up front to set up for his stablemate, but I’m opting against Big Blue Kitten for the Arc winner. I will follow him up with The Pizza Man, who has been an absolute monster this year as a six year old. He took the Arlington Million at his home track in a super impressive fashion over BBK, and looked great doing it. Most recently he was a rapidly diminishing second to longshot Grand Arch in the Shadwell Turf Mile back here on October third.

Picks: #1 Golden Horn (4-5) - #10 The Pizza Man (15-1) - #7 Big Blue Kitten (8-1) - #9 Found (8-1)

R11 Breeders' Cup Classic - 1 1/4 Miles - $5,000,000

What a thrilling edition of the Classic. The first Triple Crown winner ever to exist in the Breeders' Cup era goes for the newly founded title of the "Grand Slam" Incredible stuff. Luckily for American Pharoah, it looks to set up perfectly for him. With the defection of Beholder, American Pharoah will be able to send and have the pace all his own way. The Awesome Again winner Smooth Roller's connections have threatened to send, but the horse is relatively untested with only four starts beneath his belt, beating a battered field of older males in that victory, his first graded stakes. Frosted generally sits a tracking trip and has had an absolutely stellar season for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, coming in off a win in the Pennsylvania Derby after a phenomenal effort in the Travers. Also sitting more forward than usual will be the giant killer, Keen Ice. The Romans trainee looks to repeat his Triple Crown champion-beating run in a big way here, and has a stellar chance. His work on Saturday was unbelievable as Tammy Fox literally was standing in the irons trying to pull him down before an outrider finally came to her aid.
Tonalist drew the rail which concerns me because he is a massive horse who likes to make one long, powerful drive. I think it'll hamper his chances. Honor Code has been fantastic in his winning efforts this year and questionable (to some) in his losing, and his one-turn mile prep was odd, to say the least. It appears as though trainer Shug McGaughey is trying to inject some speed into him, especially with the monster bullets he has been working. He won't be able to lose touch with the field here, so unless he pulls himself too far out of it, expect a huge run off the pace, but the upfront fractions won't be fast if it plays as I imagine, so he will run out of room.
Effinex is flying a bit under the radar this year as he has the most wins of any horse at this distance, being 4: 2 - 0 - 1, and despite his own peculiar hang-ups has been a nice older horse. I don't believe Gleneagles will take to the turf. Also Hard Aces is running. Woopie.
Call me crazy but I could see this being the year of the three-year-old. Bring it home boys.

Picks: #2 Keen Ice (12-1) - #4 American Pharoah (6-5) - #3 Frosted (15-1) - #7 Smooth Roller (15-1)

The Magic of the Spa

It's difficult to describe the mystical air that surrounds Saratoga to the person who has never experienced it firsthand. Where do I even begin? I suppose I must start with the actual product, the seven week meet that never lacks excitement. While England has Royal Ascot and Dubai has the Carnival, the United States has Saratoga. Countless graded stakes bring together the country's finest and most talented horses and horsemen, all to battle it out for a chance of the eternal fame that Saratoga grants. Saratoga boasts 37 graded stakes races, an unprecedented 17 of which are grade ones. Those kind of prizes are unrivaled in the world, let alone the country. Champions like Secretariat fell here, while stars such as Kelso and Personal Ensign cemented their claims to fame. Racing like this does not exist anywhere else in the country.

It's not just the stakes races of Saratoga that make the place unique. It's the everyday card. Allowance races that hold future stakes implications, claimers that are as competitive as it gets. My personal favorites are the two year old maiden special weights. Studying the bloodlines, you never know what you may see. Horses purchased for over a million dollars at the Keeneland sale will debut, owners wondering if their investment will strike gold or cost them a pretty penny. There are the horses coming from exclusive bloodlines, that the owners have maintained over many generations, like the Phipps or Godolphin runners. It's not rare to find the son or daughter of a champion mare, a half-brother to a multiple grade one winner, or even the nobody who throws in a freak performance, launching unknown connection to dreams of Derby success.

Then there is the atmosphere of the actual racecourse. Walking to the track, there's a never ending bombardment of little kids offering iced waters or teenagers waving Pink Sheets to passersby. "Iced water- $1 here, $5 in the track!" Kid's got a point.

I see people dressed in jeans and shorts, a lawnchair slung over the arm and a cooler in tow, while  a group of ladies toting heels and hats trot by, giggling off the buzz from their Bloody Mary-filled brunch. Entering through the gates, the place takes on the air of a carnival. I watch as performers dance about, browse through little shops filled with knick-knacks, explore the countless food stands, and take in the energy that almost holds its own pulse. Whether sitting in the casual backyard setting, or mingling with the fancy elites in the boxes, the high from a day at the races is guaranteed to provide excitement. My personal favorite is the turf terrace- high above the boxes in a tiered table setting, it provides a beautiful view of the track mixed with a lovely breeze that can take the edge off of an otherwise hot and humid day. Not to mention the food- while some are afraid to try racetrack sushi, I'm a big fan of the newly-introduced Pharoah Roll.

Whether a casual bettor or heavy gambler, a day of playing the card can be thrilling - as a winner - or depressing - as a loser. Either way, the actual process is exciting. I love studying the racing form or the program, analyzing past performances, connections, and bloodlines. If it's a two year old race, I'm guaranteed to travel to the paddock to  more closely examine the field - is he sweating? Does she have that certain air of promise about her? -  it's all part of the experience.

There's almost a science to it. Chad Brown off the layoff on a turf route? You can rest assured that I have money down. Kiaran McLaughlin entrant in general? He's batting at around 42% wins, I can't discount him. Graham Motion first time in the United States? Bingo. Todd Pletcher two year old? I almost  have to use it in my ticket. Nick Zito first time starter? Think I'll pass.

Then again - you never know. Kelly's Prize at 55-1? Who in the world would've had that? Oh yeah, my uncle. He hit the tri for $13,000. Even a "sure thing" is not a sure thing. My friend had two horses in the third leg of his pick four the other day- Farraj, a $1.6 million purchase for Al Shaqab and Todd Pletcher, and Marking, a Kiaran McLaughlin trainee who was working in company with Watershed, who freaked earlier in the meet. What happens in the gate? Marking flips over, kicks Farraj, both late scratches. My friend is stuck with the newly-anointed favorite, a Rudy Rodriguez trainee who runs fifth. No bueno.

Still, there isn't another feeling like approaching the clerk and laying out a bet, no matter how simple or extravagant, and receiving that slip of paper that holds the momentary promise of riches in your future - all of it comes together to make a day at the races what it is. Cheering my horse to the finish line holds a thrill like no other. I am always watching people on the rail, seeing how some virtually ride "their horse" to the wire, while others slap the program against their legs, and some jump up and down, fists pumping into the sky as their horse crosses the finish line in front. Others appear a bit more dejected after a race, getting beaten by a nose, or a quarter pole. Either way, it is guaranteed that there will be a fair mix of winners and losers, and nothing beats the thrill of being "right" about the outcome of a race.

After the stakes races wind down and the card wraps up, people begin to trickle out of the track. I prefer staying through the last race. Uncashed tickets line the grounds, solo cups strewn about. The few souls who remain alive to the pick six, or the degenerate gamblers looking to make amends in their last shot of the day, remain firmly seated, eagerly anticipating the final race. Ladies who were perfectly primped at the start of the day can be seen exiting the track with their heels in hand, while a few drunk men stumble over their untied sneakers. A day of debauchery concludes with a trip to The Horseshoe, one of the favorite post-race watering holes, or to Siros, where just one drink can cost you a small win ticket. A good part of the crowd remains for a night at The Post, located next to the paddock, where the brave bet on Del Mar and the defeated drain their sorrows in beer.

While the day at the races has concluded, the nightlife of Saratoga just begins. I can't promise I will behave. But that is a story for another day...