Dubai World Cup Night

R1 – G1 Godolphin Mile – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

7 North America – 6 Sharp Azteca – 8 Heavy Metal – 13 Kafuji Take

The glorious Dubai World Cup day card opens with a hotly contested edition of the Godolphin Mile. I took North America on top, the son of Dubawi who has won his four career starts in Meydan by a combined 25 lengths. He clearly favors the dirt as he was incapable of winning in his prior five starts on the turf (and one on the all-weather). He has risen rapidly in the ranks, going from breaking his maiden in November to capturing the G3 Firebreak Stakes here in his last start on February 11^th. The Godolphin Mile will be a big ask for him, but he is a horse who tends to race up front, and usually World Cup day favors the speed. Next I selected Sharp Azteca, the American-trained son of Freud who has been devilishly quick in his starts in the United States. He is undefeated at the mile distance and prepped for this race with a resounding win in the G2 Gulfstream Park Handicap, also on February 11^th. Trainer Jorge Navarro’s only other starter ever at Meydan was X Y Jet, who was barely beaten for second in the Golden Shaheen last year. Next up I selected Heavy Metal, the bin Ghadayer trained seven-year-old gelding. Like North America and Sharp Azteca, he generally does his best running up front. He was triumphant in the G3 Burj Nahaar here a couple weeks ago and looks to give his best lifetime effort on Saturday. Round out the field with Japanese invader Kafuji Take, who drew widest in gate 13. He was third in Japan’s most prestigious dirt race of the winter-spring season in his last start, the G1 February Stakes, with winner Gold Dream earning a spot in the Breeders’ Cup.  He does his running coming from behind, and with three speedsters up front, if the track plays fairly the race may devolve and beg for a closer to come running late.

R2: PA - G1 Dubai Kahayla Classic – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

1 Faucon Du Loup – 8 Af Mathmoon – 5 Tm Thunder Struck – 12 Handassa

Faucon Du Loup was victorious in his last start here, the 2200m G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R2, which was held on January 26^th. He excels at longer distances and generally races in a tracking position. A Russian import, he was one of the best in his country before coming to the UAE. It seems to have taken him a few months to adjust to the new climate, but he is peaking at the right time. Af Mathmoon has been so dominant this year it is hard to select against him. He has won his last three starts with ease, and is evidently his best on the dirt. He has only ever run at this distance once before, but that was when winning this race last year by a neck. He will be quite hard to beat here. Tm Thunder Struck is my next selection, he was second to Af Mathmoon in this race last year. He has won his last two starts at Doha where he traditionally tends to race on the turf. However, he is clearly capable of getting the trip here, just a matter of if he is as good as he has been in the past (and given the G1 victory last out, I would say he is). Handassa was prize-winning a month ago in the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3, and is clearly comfortable at this distance. He draws a bit outside and sits too far back to be comfortably in my top three, though he in every likelihood is capable of victory.

R3: G2 Dubai Gold Cup – 3200m(16F) – Turf

12 Heartbreak City – 3 Vazirabad – 6 Quest for More – 11 Beautiful Romance

Heartbreak City ran a phenomenal race two back to land second by a head in “the race that stops a nation,” the Melbourne Cup. His owners, members of “Here for the Craic Partnership” (phenomenal name) went viral, exuberantly celebrating his runner-up effort. He is a fascinating horse, as his return to the races after that was in a hurdle race, and he is more often than not seen in hurdle events rather than on the flat. With the mount of one of the world’s best jockeys, Joao Moreira, who piloted him to his career-best second in the Melbourne Cup, he should have an excellent go of things. He will find it difficult to beat Vazirabad, who was victorious in this event last year when winning by a neck over fellow contestant Big Orange. One could argue that his form has deteriorated slightly since last year’s campaign heading into the race, but Vazirabad still ran a cracker of a prep last out when second to Beautiful Romance in the G3 Nad al Sheba. With expert Christophe Soumillon in the irons, he too should have every available chance for success. Next up I have selected Quest for More, who was last seen running a half-length behind winner and fellow Gold Cup entrant Sheikhzayedroad in the G1 QIPCO British Champions Long Distance Cup. Prior to that Quest for More was first past the post in the G1 Prix du Cadran at Chantilly. This is his first start of the season for trainer Roger Charlton, but he tends to run well fresh. Round out the field with Beautiful Romance who won the G3 Nad al Sheba in her last start, getting the jump on Vazirabad. I believe she may have her work cut out for her here in such a competitive field, but she does carry a little less weight than the boys.

R4 – G2 UAE Derby – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

13 Thunder Snow – 10 Epicharis – 15 Cosmo Charlie – 12 Spirit of Valor

Thunder Snow is unquestionably the top three-year-old running in Dubai right now, romping in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas prep under Christophe Soumillon. Unfortunately for him, he drew quite wide in gate 13. Generally speaking I won’t voluntarily take a son of Helmet in a dirt race drawn in such a wide gate, but Godolphin has such a high opinion of this horse and he has the to-the-lead running style that fares well on Dubai World Cup Night. There is not much speed inside of him, though the Japanese horse sits forwardly, so you have to hope he can cut to the rail rather quickly and avoid going wide throughout. Next I have selected Epicharis, the Japanese hopeful who was a solid winner of the Hyacinth Stakes in his last start, clinching a berth to the Kentucky Derby. He is a grandson of Sunday Silence, and undefeated in his four lifetime starts. He looks to be a real solid contender and I would love to see him come to Kentucky for the Derby after this race. As disappointing as Thunder Snow’s draw is, I’m even more disappointed by that of Cosmo Charlie, a gorgeous son of Coolmore’s Stay Thirsty who was an easy winner despite the length margin of victory in his prep, the listed Al Bastakiya. Prior to that he was soundly beaten by Thunder Snow, but one must imagine that he is maturing and this distance clearly suits him more. He is another that sends to the lead, the preferable running style of the night, but he may get stuck a bit on the outside with Thunder Snow and Epicharis inside of him. I round out with Coolmore partners/Stonestreet’s Spirit of Valor, a son of War Front out of a Grindstone mare who gets his first start on the dirt here for trainer Aidan O’Brien. He was second in his last start, the G3 Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown. He is a half-brother to Street Life, a multiple stakes winner on the dirt who ran third in the G2 Peter Pan and fourth in the G1 Belmont during his career.

R5: G1 Al Quoz Sprint – 1200m(6F) – Turf

1 Amazing Kids – 6 Ertijaal – 11 Limato – 5 Jungle Cat

This year the Al Quoz Sprint will be run at six furlongs, versus its typical five furlongs of the past 6 years, which changes the dynamics of the race a bit. Last year we saw Buffering reign supreme, and we have a highly competitive field of 12 lined up for this year’s edition. Amazing Kids is a Hong Kong raider, fourth by 2.25 lengths in his last try to the very good racehorse Peniaphobia. Hong Kong has one of the most competitive turf sprinting programs in the world, and this horse has been a very honest runner at that level. His two tries on the straight in HK have resulted in two victories. I’m looking for him to spring the upset, and the mount of Joao Moreira is all the more enticing. It will be hard to beat Shadwell’s Ertijaal, who seems to be quite dominant in the domain of Meydan’s turf sprints. His last few races have all come at 200m shorter than the Al Quoz, but he has been successful at this distance in the past. He was second in this race last year by three-quarters of a length.  Limato returns to the races off a layoff, his last start being a disappointing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He’s a very competitive horse at the Group 1 level, and the Al Quoz Sprint’s slight extension in distance will help him here, as he has been in the winners’ circle six of eight tries at this distance, with two runner-up efforts.  Last year he took the G1 Prix de la Foret as well as the G1 July Cup, so we know when he is on form he is a very serious racehorse. I round out the field with Jungle Cat, who always shows up at Meydan, despite the occasional lack-luster starts in Europe. He had a nice prep into this race in a conditions event a few weeks ago, and he should put forth a solid effort here.

R6: G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen – 1200m(6f) - Dirt

10 Not Listenin’tome – 14 Mind Your Biscuits – 2 Morwaji – 1 Stallwalkin’ Dude

Tough race. The UAE dirt sprint ranks have been dreadful this year, so I had to look abroad for a winner. I selected Not Listenin’tome, the Hong Kong horse, who is 20-1 on United States morning line odds. He definitely has his work cut out for him as he has never started on the dirt before and draws wide, but if he takes to it he could be sitting pretty at a big price. I chose him over USA-based Mind Your Biscuits, who heads into the race a little over-hyped, in my humble opinion, especially given the draw he received - furthest outside in barrier 14.  Morwaji is the next pick, he runs on the front end and as I have mentioned, there is often a speed bias on World Cup night. Not an incredibly talented horse but he has drawn better than any of the invaders on the inside. Round out with Stallwalkin’ Dude who has the rail for trainer David Jacobson. A relatively consistent graded performer in the United States, he is likely better than much of the field, but I question his ability to adapt to the UAE. PS- If Reynaldo beats me, I will be so angry at myself because he ALWAYS does when I refuse to select him.

R7: G1 Dubai Turf – 1800m(9F) – Turf

1 Ribchester – 4 Decorated Knight – 2 Zarak – 9 Vivlos

I took Godolphin’s Ribchester on top here. He comes in off a layoff, last seen in October finishing second to super-horse Minding in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Prior to that he was a winner of the G1 Jacques le Marois at Deauville. He’s never run beyond a mile but the extra furlong shouldn’t hurt. Next up is Decorated Knight, a son of Galileo who won the G1 Jebel Hatta here a few weeks ago over the distance. Clearly takes to Meydan’s surface for trainer Roger Charlton. Illustrious Arc winner Zarkava’s son, Zarak, is my next choice. The Dubawi colt won the G3 Dubai Millennium Stakes here in February under a confident ride by Christophe Soumillon. This has been the target for the colt, and he will likely be running in the top three. Round out with the Japanese filly Vivlos, who was fifth beaten by two lengths in the G2 Nakayama Kinen in February. She is a Group 1 winner, granted against three-year-old fillies last season, and she will be in here at big price.

R8: G1 – Longines Dubai Sheema Classic – 2410m(10F) – Turf

3 Highland Reel – 7 Postponed – 2 Jack Hobbs – 5 Prize Money

Highland Reel looks to benefit from a lack of pace in this race. He is an incredibly talented world traveler, though he could only manage fourth in this race last year. He is following the same route he took last year when he was victorious in the G1 Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin, though this year he was beaten in the final stages of the race to land second. He dances every dance in every country he travels to and there is no reason to doubt that he will be on his A game for Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore this weekend. Postponed had a difficult race in his prep, the G2 Dubai City of Gold, when he was mercilessly boxed in until the final strides of the race to land second as a very heavy favorite. He won this race last year, though he headed into it on a stronger campaign than he does this year. He seems to be a vulnerable favorite in such a strong renewal of the race. Next up I chose Jack Hobbs, owned by Godolphin and partners. He ran third in the G1 QIPCO Champion Stakes in his last start, behind the incredibly talented duo of Almanzor and Found. He takes well to the distance, with two wins and a third from four starts, including of course a win in the G1 Irish Derby. Lightly raced and rather fragile, he runs well fresh and should put in a big effort here. Round out with Prize Money, who beat Postponed in the prep. This level of competition will be much more difficult to overcome, and it is unlikely that the favorite will face such traffic issues as he did last time.

R9: G1 Dubai World Cup – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

9 Arrogate – 5 Gun Runner – 12 Hoppertunity – 14 Mubtaahij

Impossible to go against Arrogate, who is the highest ranked horse to ever race in Dubai at 134, not to mention currently ranked the best in the world. The only way he loses is if Mike Smith jumps off him before the wire. Gun Runner is who I give the best runner-up chances to. Unfortunately he had to miss the G1 Pegasus World Cup while stuck in EHV-1 quarantine with the rest of the horses at Fair Grounds. Gun Runner was most recently a 5.75 length winner of the G3 Razorback Handicap at Oaklawn Park. He ended last year on a high note, taking the G1 Clark Handicap with ease. He’s an incredibly talented horse, and although this may be further than his ideal distance, it likely won’t matter. His last two races have been won on the lead, and if Meydan plays as it usually does, he will be the biggest threat to Arrogate. Hoppertunity drew rather wide in gate 12, but he is a hard-knocking horse who ran well here last year when third in the Dubai World Cup. He has been training well heading into the race, and though he may not be Baffert’s big dog, he is a very honest horse. Lastly I chose Mubtaahij, who was unfortunate when drawing barrier 14. Returned to Mike de Kock’s care after a stint in the United States with Kiaran McLaughlin, he ran second for the South African in the Curlin Handicap. Second off the layoff should play well for him, if it weren’t for that draw.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Super Saturday Selections

R1: TB – Listed – Al Bastakiya – 1900m(~9.5F) – Dirt

Somerset House – Fawree – Capezzano

Somerset House is the pick here, the son of Hard Spun won his maiden debut easily in December. Between Hard Spun and Empire Maker in his pedigree, should have no problem stretching out. Fawree, the son of Candy Ride, was a nice winner in his last start when sent to the lead, winning by a five length margin. Should put in a solid effort here for conditioner Mike de Kock. Capezzano beat Fawree in a maiden here in December, but finished third in his last start. The Candy Ride colt should get the edge, but I expect Godolphin to have two in the top three.

R2: TB – G3 – Mahab Al Shimaal – 1200M(6F) – Dirt

Reynaldothewizard – Cool Cowboy – Muarrab

Every time I pick against Reynaldo, he beats me. This time around he is coming in off a good layoff, he tends to run best fresh, and he drew well in gate five. Eleven years young? I think so. Cool Cowboy has five wins from nine starts at this distance and was a winner last out in a G3 a month ago. He should be a major player. Round out with Muarrab who drew a bit further outside than I would have liked, but has put in three consistent runner-up efforts in his last few starts, two of which to my top two selections.

R3: TB – G2 – Dubai City of Gold – 2410m(~12F) – Turf

Postponed – Prize Money – Rembrandt van Rijn

Postponed was victorious in this race last year and enters off of a similar campaign. He was fifth in his last start, the Arc, and has not run since. He should be fresh and primed for this race, and lays over the field in terms of class. Prize Money was victorious in his last start, a handicap here at Meydan over a similar distance, and should do well here. He beat Rembrandt van Rijn in that prior start, who rounds out my selections in the Dubai City of Gold, having placed in his last three efforts over a distance.

R4: TB – G3 – Burj Nahaar – 1600m(8F) - Dirt

Le Bernardin – Heavy Metal – Power Blade

Le Bernardin did not run his best in his last start but he was taken out of his usual method of tracking the leaders and had to settle for running midpack. The distance was a little further than his desired, as he has five wins from ten starts at 1600m. A quality, consistent horse. Heavy Metal was a winner in his last start, a Carnival handicap, and ran fourth in his only recent graded start. He’s had a pretty solid season finishing primarily in the top three, and should be sitting up close to the pace here, if not on the lead. Power Blade, the South Korean invader, has put in a couple solid efforts here at Meydan. Last out he was third in a group two here at a slightly longer distance, and he is 3: 1-1-1 at this distance.

R5: TB – Conditions – Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint – 1200M(6F) - Turf

The Right Man – Jungle Cat – Baccarat

The Right Man is a French invader who is a very consistent turf sprint competitor. Outside of his one flop in G1 company in July of last year, he has run almost exclusively in the top two. He has four wins and a second from five starts at this distance, and enters off a bit of a layoff having not run since November where he won a G3 at this distance.  He drew a bit outside here in gate 14 but seems to be quite classy. Next up I took Jungle Cat, who was second in his last two starts for Godolphin, including the Meydan Sprint, an event which he won last year. He suits the field well. Round out with Godolphin’s other entry, Baccarat, who won over Jungle Cat last out.

R6: TB – G1 – Al Maktoum Challenge R3 – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

Furia Cruzada – Move Up – Second Summer

A really competitive field is gathered here for Round 3 of the Al Maktoum Challenge.  I selected Furia Cruzada on top, a Chilean import who has seen much of the world. He was a multiple Grade 1 winner on the dirt in his native country as well as in Argentina, before being sent to England.  In England he was placed in a G2 on the turf, and his first and only start in Meydan came when he won Round 2 of the Al Maktoum Challenge in February.  That was a very impressive race, he was buried on the rail in a tracking position, switched outside of the fading Long River and exploded in the stretch. I next selected Move Up, a son of Dubawi for Godolphin who will try dirt for the first time. We already know Dubawi can get a very good dirt horse, so he should take to the surface. Last out he won a G3 at Ascot over the nice Arab Spring, and prior to that took a G2 in Turkey. No stranger to travel, looks to be a lot of upside here. Round out with Second Summer who was soaring to the wire in the Al Maktoum Challenge R2 but did not get there and didn’t manage to get past Furia Cruzada in the gallop out. Still a very strong effort there. I hesitated to toss Special Fighter who was so successful at Meydan last year, but he has not run since the World Cup. Will also be interesting to see how dear Lani does, as there looks like there will be some speed for him to run into.

R7: TB – G1 – Jebel Hatta – 1800m(9F) – Turf

Promising Run – Decorated Night – Folkswood

I took Promising Run on top, who was third beaten by 3.25L in his prior start, The G3 Dubai Millenium Stakes, when drawn wide and sent to the lead. He is a couple gates closer inside today and likely will not be sending. This should set him up nicely, and he did win the G2 Al Rashidiya here upon debut. I took Decorated Knight next, the son of Galileo had a tune up over the all-weather in a listed stakes that he was victorious in last month under Andrea Atzeni. He’s a G3 winner at this distance at Leopardstown and should be competitive in this field. Round out with Folkswood, another Godolphin runner, who won his last start here, a Carnival handicap, at this distance. He likes to sit close to the pace and will be running on convincingly at the end.