Maidens in the Derby and other Contentious Issues

Yesterday I posted that I do not believe the Kentucky Derby should allow maidens in over horses that are proven winners with points. Many people took my statement ver batim, assuming that this meant I believed a horse with 2 points should get in over a horse like Trojan Nation who earned 40 points when second in the Wood Memorial. That is not so, but let's take a look at this history of maidens in the Kentucky Derby. 

Maidens in the Kentucky Derby and other issues

For the first time since 1998 we face the curious situation of a maiden running in the Kentucky Derby. That maiden is Trojan Nation, a very well bred son of Street Cry (IRE) out of the Champion 2yo Filly  Storm Song (Summer Squall). Trojan Nation has raced six times, with his lone stakes race resulting in a Derby-qualifying head-bob loss to Outwork in the Wood Memorial. Prior to that he had never run better than third in his five starts. Unfortunately for the rest of points-amassing horses, the slowest Wood Memorial in the history of the race was enough to get this maiden into the twenty horse starting gate. I'm not knocking the Wood Memorial, despite the weak field, it is still a G1 points race. For the record, ever since the Kentucky Derby points system has been implemented, the majority of horses entering the starting gate are horses that I have no qualms with. However, it is my belief that maidens entering over winners with Derby points is a bit upsetting. Why do I feel this way? Well, let’s take a look at the facts.

No maiden has won since 1933

The last maiden to win the Kentucky Derby was in 1933, when Brokers Tip won by a much debated head bob in an era without photofinishes as his jockey and the runner-up’s physically fought one another to the wire.

Broker’s Tip entered the Derby a maiden, starting four times as a two year old and once as a three year old prior to the race. He left the Derby a victor with his name memorialized in history. There were thirteen horses in the gate when Broker’s Tip left, but only twelve finished as one was pulled up midrace.

Broker’s Tip never saw the inside of the winner’s circle again. That was his sole victory, and after some lackluster starts, he was retired to stud.

The maiden Sir Barton and the Triple Crown

The first ever winner of the Triple Crown was Sir Barton, who is as famous in his initial conquest of the feat as he is in his loss to Man O’War in a match race the ensuing year. It’s important to note that the Kentucky Derby did not hold the prestige it currently does, and the Triple Crown wasn’t a legitimate series until many year later.
Heading into the Kentucky Derby, Sir Barton was a highly average horse. All of his starts as a two year old had come in stakes races, and he had run 5ht, 9th, 9th, 9th, 7th, and 16th before finally running 2nd in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont to conclude his three-year-old campaign.

Twelve horses contested the Kentucky Derby in 1919, the year of Sir Barton’s victory. It was Sir Barton's first start of the season an the horse drastically changed his running style, heading straight ot the lead and never looking back. Prior to that he had been breaking slowly and staying behind.
Sir Barton's case is hard to compare to modern day racing because through the current system, horses are basically require to run prior to the Derby in their sophomore season. Back then the Preakness was contested four days after the Derby, and the Belmont ten days after that. Clearly a different time, so comparison of this maiden winner to the modern era is irrelevant. 

Buchanan Wins the 10^th Derby, breaking his maiden in the process

The tenth running of the Kentucky Derby in 1884, Hall of Fame Jockey Isaac Murphy wanted nothing to do with his mount, Buchanan. Naturally fractious before the gate, Buchanan threw his jockey, in turn provoking Murphy to ask to scratch his horse. Fortunately for Murphy he was threatened with a suspension if he refused to ride, and the rest is history. Buchanan won the Derby in a field of six horses. He continued on to win the Clark Stakes, which at the time was one of the most important races of the Churchill spring meet. Buchanan was the real deal.

Prior to his entry in the Kentucky Derby, Buchanan had run seven times at age two, all in stakes races. He had run second five times and twice he was third. (Note: some sources say six times, but pedigree query has 7 listed runs his two-year-old season)

Maiden Derby contenders since 1937

Here’s a fun little chart provided by the Kentucky Derby website. It is a list of maiden competitors and their respected final positions. As you can see, a maiden has never even cracked the top seven. Granted, there isn’t a large pool to select from, but the reason there is not a large pool is because maidens do not belong in the race. End of discussion.

Summary of maiden victors

Brokers Tip, Sir Barton and Buchanan all won the Kentucky Derby in fields of six to 13 horses. In the modern day Derby system, it is infrequent that we see a Derby contested that does not include the use of the auxiliary gate, positions 15-20. We need to adjust to the modern era and acknowledge that maiden competitors are only going to find it more difficult to contest this race than ever before. Even back in the day, it’s glaringly obvious that Sir Barton was a rare exception in that he became a Triple Crown winner and one of the nicest horses of the early 1900s. Buchanan had run a series of bang-up races as a two year old, competing solely in stakes and hitting the board in each of his six starts. Brokers Tip is the oddball out, having never won again, and no one is actually sure he even won the Derby due to the lack of a photo finish.

Fillies in the Kentucky Derby

My friend made the argument that if I were to bar maidens from competing in the Derby because it has been 83 years since the last won, then I may as well ban fillies because there was a 65 year gap between Regret and Genuine Risk. That’s a silly comparison, and I understand he was trying to make my argument seem trivial (it’s not), but I want to address it anyway, because not everyone knows the history of fillies in the Derby. Regret went into the Kentucky Derby an undefeated champion two year old who had already walloped the boys in the Special, sanford, and Hopeful. The Derby was her first start of her three-year-old season. She is credited as the horse who brought it to the level of its current-day prestige.

Genuine Risk had run second in the Wood Memorial prior to the Derby, which in the modern day system would have granted her 40 points, enough to contest.

Winning Colors had wrecked the boys in the Santa Anita Derby, which would have given her 100 points under the modern day system.

Clearly irrelevant. I could say let’s ban geldings while we are at it because Funny Cide was the first to win since Clyde van Dusen in 1929, but that is another silly comparison. Funny Cide wasn’t a maiden and he had run second in the Wood and Louisiana Derby, and Clyde van Dusen was not a maiden, being a four times stakes winner as a two year old.

International horses in the Derby

The UAE Derby as a qualifying race. Some people think it silly that the UAE Derby is a points race, and that I should prefer to see a horse win the UAE Derby and run in the Kentucky Derby over a maiden running in the Derby. The UAE Derby is a graded stakes (G2)  that occurs on one of the biggest international days of racing, the Dubai World Cup. The United States is attempting to foster international interest in the Derby by allowing the UAE Derby to be a points race, a symbiotic relationship in that it also attracts USA-based horses to run over in Dubai, i.e. Frank Conversation. Not exactly sure where the point of contention about whether or not this is valid is coming from, as only three horses have even bothered to come abroad to run in the Derby after competing in Dubai, so it is not as though the race is detracting from other points horses.

Lani’s victory in the UAE Derby was his third win from six starts.

Of UAE Derby winners, three have come over to contest the Kentucky Derby. Last year, Mubtaahij ran 8^th before returning to run 4^th in the Belmont Stakes. He was most recently a strong 2^nd to America’s top male handicap horse California Chrome in the Dubai World Cup.

Regal Ransom is another UAE winner who came over to contest the Kentucky Derby, running 8^th here. He followed that up with a win in the G2 Super Derby.

Lines of Battle is yet another UAE winner who ran 7^th in the Kentucky Derby but eventually proved himself as a top competitor, peaking with a G1W in Hong Kong.

Final thoughts

My debate is not about the points system. My debate is that maidens have an incredibly poor record in the Kentucky Derby, and with the points system, are still capable of running in it despite other horses with points who are not maidens. Perhaps Trojan Nation is a rare exception and may win, but his lackluster five failed maiden special weights attempts followed by a second in the worst Wood Memorial of all time seriously irks me. Sure, he is royally bred, but is he qualified? Not in my opinion. However, I do not make the rules, I’m a simple observer. There are so many flaws with so many systems in racing that perhaps we should just be grateful that we have a semi-functioning one finally determining who will run in the Derby, even if it has its quirks.

What would I do to amend this problem if the point system was up to me? Honestly, a lot more research. I would look at the past performances of every maiden to run in the Kentucky Derby and compare it to Trojan Nation. I would see how Trojan Nation performs in the Derby. I’d pray next year’s crop of horses ix just better in general, because this wouldn’t slide if we weren’t in a terrible year of three-year-olds. There would have to be a trade off at some level, a maiden can contest over a winner with points if the non-maidens points were in lowly enough races as to render them irrelevant (say the Grey Stakes up at Woodbine during the two-year-old season, etc). Any which way, something has got to give. But it won't. It's horse racing, after all, the industry that fears change more than any other in the United States!

Mackenzie's Derby Top 10

1. Nyquist – Doug O’Neill – Reddam Racing – Mario Gutierrez

It still shocks me that Nyquist isn’t number one on everyone’s Derby list. How can you not have an undefeated champion at the top? He has done more than any other horse in any of the preps and just exudes class. Are we still questioning whether or not he can get 1 ¼ miles? He got the 1 1/8 of the Florida Derby like it was nobody’s business, and even if his dam is by Forestry, he has the stamina influences of Seeking the Gold and Cox’s Ridge buried in his pedigree, so I’m not too concerned. Especially since the Derby is often a staggering match anyway.

You can’t question the class that Nyquist has beaten either as he prevailed after an incredibly difficult, wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, defeating Grade 1 winners Brody’s Cause and Exaggerator. And despite Exaggerator’s recent romp in the Santa Anita Derby, one must take into consideration how soundly Nyquist has repeatedly beaten him. Nyquist can run on the slop as he did in the Florida Derby or on a fast track, he is hands down the most solid contender heading into the Kentucky Derby.

2.       Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen – Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimney’s Farm – Florent Geroux

Is it weird that I think the Louisiana preps had some of the best horses this year? Usually they aren’t full of top Derby prospects, but this year Gun Runner and Mo Tom, even Tom’s Ready, are all nice horses. As a matter of fact, the three 2^nd-4^th place finishers of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes are on my top ten list, with Mor Spirit being the only one campaigned in California.

Gun Runner has stepped up to each challenge, taking the Risen Star Stakes in his seasonal debut. The win was by no means effortless and some horses put in a late drive to almost catch him, but he prevailed. First off the layoff, a very solid effort. He then turned heads with his impressive victory in the Louisiana Derby, tracking inside before switching out and drawing off to a 4 ½ length victory, a little green down the stretch. Visually he was super impressive, although the time was a slow 1:51.06, while older horses earlier in the day in the New Orleans Handicap posted the same distance in 1:50.06, a whole second quicker. He only got a 91 Beyer for the race, which is pedestrian, but that seems to be the way with the majority of Derby preps this year. Are we just dealing with a slow group of horses or are the Beyers amiss? I think it’s probably a combo of both. Also, the last horse to win the Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby was Grindstone. The six weeks between races probably doesn’t help Gun Runner’s case.

I love Gun Runner’s stalking style and his breeding, Candy Ride out of a Giants Causeway mare ensures he will be able to get the distance. Same cross as Shared Belief, Candy Ride out of a Storm Cat descended mare. His dam is a MSW half-sister to champion Saint Liam, so he exudes class in the pedigree.

 3.       Brody’s Cause – Dale Romans – Albaugh Family Stable – Luis Saez

Brody’s Cause returned to the scene on Saturday with an impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Sitting far back early he used his closing kick to draw away to a 1 ¾ length victory. It’s difficult to tell whether or not this was solely due to a great turn of foot or if there was a bit of a pace collapse, as the top three finishers were sitting very far back early. His move was quite impressive however, as he started early on the far turn, split horses, and drew off, ears pricked across the wire.

I wasn’t sure what to make of Brody’s flop in the Tampa Bay Derby, but at this point I believe it is safe to say that he hated the track, as many horses do trying Tampa for the first time, and he seems to be the kind of horse who needs a race. Don’t forget that he was eighth in his debut, distanced by 25 ¼ lengths, before returning to win easily in a maiden special at Churchill.

Brody’s Cause’s pedigree is loaded with stamina, being a $350,000 son of Giant’s Causeway out of the MSP mare Sweet Breanna, by Sahm. He flew to win the Breeders’ Futurity last year in the slop over Exaggerator, and he was then a good third to Nyquist and Swipe after a moderately difficult trip in the BC Juvenile, again defeating Exaggerator. However, Brody’s Blue Grass Beyer was again a victim of a slow number, registering only a 91. Like I’ve said before, I do not trust Beyers, but I bring them up so hopefully others can see the light as well.

4.       Mor Spirit – Bob Baffert – Michael Lund Peterson - Gary Stevens

This may be a little too high to rank Mor Spirit, but I do really like him. He always comes running at the end, and while some think he’s a plodder, I feel he’s got room to improve and really kick on. Gary Stevens didn’t even ask him to run in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby but he still put in a nice rally at the end. It looked more like a prep, saving whatever he had for the Derby, than a horse that wasn’t running on well. He got roasted by the fast fractions that Danzing Candy set in the San Felipe, but he mounted a strong bid toward the end of the race to overtake Exaggerator. I think the more distance the better for him, as a son of Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway), out of a Seattle Slew mare, it seems only natural that he should enjoy stretching out.

I’m still so unsure about what to make of the Santa Anita Derby, but I do think Gary Stevens rode Mor Spirit like it was prep, not the real deal, and Exaggerator may be a little tired heading into the Derby following that drastic move. I also like Mor Spirit’s mid-pack style, I think he will be able to adapt well to the Derby field.

5.       Exaggerator – Keith Desormeaux - Big Chief Racing, LLC, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. – Kent Desormeaux

Exaggerator threw a serious curveball with his victory in the Santa Anita Derby, and I honestly do not know how to make heads or tails of it. Did he take a massive step forward? Was he just fonder of the mud (though he was second in slop last year in the Breeders’ Futurity)? Was he the beneficiary of Danzing Candy’s quick opening fractions? I’m so lost. All I know is he ran a 101 Beyer even though a MAIDEN ran a quicker race than he did at the same distance earlier in the card. None of it makes any sense whatsoever. It’s hard to put him down lower on the list after Saturday’s performance, but I by no means want him any higher than this.

In terms of pedigree, he’s a son of Curlin so he should be able to run all day, but did he peak too early with too big a run? His broodmare sire was Vindication, who was champion two year old, so he got his precocity from that side of the fam. Curlin was unraced as a 2yo. But he also was a super impressive winner from the beginning. Exaggerator is kind of a mix of the two. He’ll be a shorter price than I think he should be on the first Saturday in May, that’s all I know.

6.       Cupid – Bob Baffert – Coolmore – Martin Garcia

Though I may be tempted, I won’t put Cupid any higher on my list until the Arkansas Derby is run. This expensive ($900,000) son of Tapit, out of the good Beau Genius mare Pretty ‘N’ Smart, just broke his maiden in February. He did it nicely though, bobbling at the start and sitting a stalking trip, wide before overtaking the leaders and drawing off to a 5 ¼ length victory, geared down. It’s important to note that third in that race was Trojan Nation, who subsequently almost beat Outwork in the Wood Memorial this past weekend at Aqueduct. He also ran 44ft more than the second place finisher, or about 5 lengths. A convincing victory.

He returned immediately in the G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn where he was sent to the lead and set a super-quick opening fraction of 22.96s before slowing it down a hair. Whitmore mounted a drive on the far stretch but Cupid had something left in reserve and pulled away to a 1 ¼ length victory. With Cupid’s natural tactical speed he could be a big threat to the Derby field, with my main question being whether or not he can stretch it out for a mile and a quarter. I may be one of the few but I still question Tapit’s offspring’s staying ability when matched with a broodmare sire like Beau Genius, who isn’t incredibly well known for throwing stamina horses. Many of my questions will be answered on Saturday when he takes on a nice field of horses in the Arkansas Derby.

7.       Mo Tom – Tom Amoss – G M B Racing – Corey Lanerie

This poor, poor horse. Jockey Corey Lanerie has gotten it into so much trouble in its starts that it is barely on the cusp of qualifying for the Derby. However, there is so much potential here. This son of Uncle Mo has shown a keen ability to close and still has acquired Derby points despite each painful-to-watch trip that Corey has guided him on.

Mo Tom began his season with a victory in the Lecomte Stakes. Settling far back early, he mounted a big move in the far turn and swept forward before having to switch outside to the center of the track and still getting up to beat Tom’s Ready by 2 ¼ lengths. He followed that up with a bad trip in the Risen Star, where he had to check sharply after rallying from last in the home stretch, hampering any chances he had at winning. He still got up for third, and Corey retained the mount for his next race, the Louisiana Derby. As if his trip in the Risen Star couldn’t get any worse, Corey managed to find even more traffic trouble, and Mo Tom suffered the consequences when finishing fourth as the favorite.

Unfortunately Amoss has decided to keep Corey Lanerie on Mo Tom, which makes me sad. It could also be a problem if Cherry Wine or Unbridled Outlaw get into the Kentucky Derby, because Lanerie rides them both. Either way, Mo Tom will have his work cut out for him. He’s a deep closer, similar to Brody’s Cause, and that running style can be an impediment come Derby day in the twenty horse field.

8.       Mohaymen – Kiaran McLaughlin – Godolphin – Junior Alvarado

Mohaymen seemed like one of the top Derby prospects heading into the Florida Derby, but the end results of the race really muddled the picture. After dominating and effortless victories in the Holy Bull and the Fountain of Youth, Mohaymen found himself unable to compete with Nyquist in the much-heralded Florida Derby and dropped back to finish fourth.

The question is, did Mohaymen have an off day, or is he just not that good? It’s really difficult to discern. First of all, his wins heading into the Florida Derby were just absolute cakewalks. However, none of the horses that he beat came back to flatter him. Fellowship actually came back from a 3^rd to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth to run 3^rd to Nyquist in the Florida Derby, but he was by no means impressive. And Zulu, second to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth, came back to run a clunker as the favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes.

So what to make of Mohaymen? He had a wide trip in the Florida Derby, and he clearly didn’t take well to the slop. But was the performance something you can draw a line through or is he just not as good as everyone thought? It’s very unclear but one thing is for sure, McLaughlin will have him ready to go at his best for the Kentucky Derby.

9.       Danzing Candy – Clifford Sise -  Halo Farms, Bashor, Jim and Bashor, Dianne – Mike Smith

Danzing Candy looked like the real deal when he set rapid fractions in the San Felipe and became an easy winner, but his Santa Anita Derby was a much different race. Mike Smith again sent him to the lead and set blazing fractions early, and the horse faded badly at the end to finish fourth. My qualm here is that Mike Smith should’ve used this race as an ability to teach Danzing Candy how to rate, not to pretend he was on Songbird and soar to the lead and never look back. Unfortunately, Smith sent him and sent him fast. It’s also hard to tell if Danzing Candy couldn’t get the distance, or if he was just not a fan of the slop. I’m hopeful it’s the second because he’s got such natural speed that could be quite beneficial for him come Derby Day.

Besides, if I have Exaggerator on my top 10 and I’m not exactly sure why, I don’t think I can toss Danzing Candy completely either, as he was one of my favorite’s heading into last weekend. If his connections do indeed choose to run him on Derby day, hopefully he can adjust.

10.   Swipe – Keith Desormeaux - Big Chief Racing, LLC, Justice, James C. and Shelton, Billy R. – Flavien Prat

Swipe is entered in this weekend’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, and even if he does win it, he still is barely on the edge of making it into the Derby. He has missed a lot of time this season early on, but I’m hoping for a big comeback. He ended his season last year with four consecutive runner-up efforts to unbeaten 2yo champion Nyquist, but I always thought that he would improve with age. This will be a huge step for him, to take the Lexington and then compete in the Derby, but he was my number one Derby prospect last year and I really have confidence in his ability. A simple $5,000 sales purchase, he is a son Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, who is in turn a son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. His broodmare sire is Grand Slam, who is very useful as a BMS. He should easily get the distance, but will he get the points?

Honorable Mentions: Cherry Wine, Tom’s Ready, Trojan Nation, Adventist, Laoban, Suddenbreakingnews

Derby Prep Weekend Race Recap 4/9

Derby Prep Race Recap-

Santa Anita Derby – Easily the most confusing prep of the weekend as the sloppy track and odd jockey tactics left me with more questions than answers. Exaggerator has been well beaten by Nyquist in each of his starts, but he broke through with an incredible turn of foot in the Santa Anita Derby. Mike Smith set blazing, unnecessarily fast fractions on Danzing Candy (Earth to Mike, this isn’t Songbird and no one is challenging you for the lead), so Exaggerator got the perfect setup. Did Danzing Candy burn out or did he just hate the slop? Probably both. Gary Stevens didn’t even attempt to ride Mor Spirit who put in a mild rally late for second. Personally think Mor Spirit is sitting on a huge one in the Derby, and I still question Exaggerator’s talents, but it would be hard to ignore him and he is a must use if it ends up sloppy on the First Saturday in May.

For what it’s worth, Exaggerator’s final quarter was done in 25.69 seconds, and next quickest home Mor Spirit was 26.68. Neither fractions were particularly fast and Exaggerator’s Beyer was the biggest of the 3yo preps for the weekend, a 103. That makes me question Beyer’s figures more than the horse’s time. Especially since a horse broke his maiden at the same distance going .58 seconds quicker than Exaggerator in the first race on the card.

Wood Memorial – A bunch of dogs up north or what? Hard to tell. Outwork was second to Destin by a nose in the Tampa Bay Derby and returns to barely beat a maiden in the Wood Memorial while Shagaf runs up the track. Derby picture not getting any clearer other than the fact that the Derby winner isn’t coming out of New York. Outwork has room to improve as he is a son of Uncle Mo out of an Empire Maker mare, but how good is he? It’s hard to gauge, but a maiden shipping in from California to almost beat him doesn’t bode well.

Only positives from Outwork’s steady crawl to the wire is that he ran 42 feet, or roughly 5 lengths more than second-placed Trojan Nation.

Not to mention Outwork ran the slowest Wood Memorial in the history of the race, crawling home in 1:52.92 seconds. You’d have to go back to 1952 to find the next-slowest time. Yet Outwork still managed a 93 Beyer, quicker than the Blue Grass winner’s 91. Me thinking Beyer may have had too much to drink.

Blue Grass Stakes – Besides having a phenomenal Blue Grass experience personally, I think Brody’s Cause was one of the most impressive winners from the weekend. He had trouble with traffic heading into the first turn, had to check, settled in the back and made a huge sweeping move, splitting horses to get up and win by 1 ¾ lengths. There was a bit of a pace collapse as the top 3 finishers were 11^th, 13^th and 12^th respectively after a quarter of a mile, but each of the three were also valid contenders.

People are raving about My Man Sam’s performance but I would like to point out that despite looking like he ran much wider than the others, he only covered 2 more feet than Brody’s Cause which is equivalent to less than a head. His final furlong was just a hair quicker than Brody’s as Brody did his in 25.34 seconds, My Man Sam in 25.17 seconds, and Brody averaged a faster MPH speed for the race than My Man Sam did by .1 mph. Not to mention if Corey Lanerie had kept riding Cherry Wine strong to the wire, he would’ve finished second instead. Not to take anything away from the Chad Brown trainee, he still put in an impressive performance, but I think people are looking further into it than need be. Brody’s Cause was a dominant victor at Keeneland. Cherry Wine ran huge. My Man Sam ran huge. Great race.

Blue Grass Day at Keeneland

Keeneland Saturday Card

A great day of racing on Saturday headlined by three phenomenal Grade 1 races. Unfortunately for us attending in person, the weather is going to be quite cold with the potential of the wind chill bringing the temperature down even further. That may be why I prefer Saratoga. But rest assured, the great race card will make up for the poor weather! Cannot wait so let's dive in. 

R1 – Alw 62000N1X – 7F Dirt – 3yos

7 Dan the Go to Man – 3 Sonoma Crush – 1 Smart Moon 

The first race of the day is an average sprint allowance. I’ll take the 7 Dan the Go to Man on top as he ships in from a subpar stakes effort at Gulfstream Park but draws the outside gate. Sprint races at Keeneland tend to be won by outside horses and this Kenneally trainee was thought highly enough of to be entered in stakes company twice in his previous efforts. Two back he ran a decent second to Todd Pletcher’s Outwork who enters the G1 Wood at Aqueduct this weekend. Next up I’ll take the three horse, Sonoma Crush for Steve Asmussen. A winner in his first start last out, he debuted as favorite and showed some early speed for top connections of Stonestreet Farm and George Bolton. I’ll round out with Smart Moon for Mark Casse who was trounced in his last effort, here last year. After a break and a string of decent works he returns and retains the mount of top Keeneland jock Julien Leparoux.

R2 – OC 62k/N2X – 6.5F Dirt – 4yo+

2 Two Weeks Off – 1 Limousine Liberal – 5 Nite of the Hunter

I was hesitant to put the first two in their respective positions simply because of the difficulty horses have winning sprint races at Keeneland from inside post positions. However, they are both quality horses that are hard to overlook. Two Weeks Off enters off a longer-than-two-weeks layoff for Todd Pletcher, having not run since June of last year. However, Todd hits at 37% with horses off of a 180+ day break, so I like this horse’s chance. Not to mention he is already a winner over this track with a big 104 speed figure. Not much speed in the race and this horse likes to sit forward, so he may end up sending. To place I have Limousine Liberal, who was last seen running 11^th here some 10.25 lengths back in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. However, tossing that race you can look back at his two solid second place finishes in graded stakes prior, especially the G1 King’s Bishop when he was second to champion Runhappy. He’s put together a series of three bullets in his last few breezes so he’s heading in extra sharp. Round out with Nite of the Hunter, who enters here off an allowance win at Fair Grounds after switching to dirt. He may have just found his sweet spot with the surface and has an ideal post position.

R3 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 1 Mile Turf – 3yo+ F

6 Kundray – 7 Princesa Silvia – 2 Bene Pista

This is a total rat race in my opinion. The ten horses have been beaten in their prior start by 113 lengths, averaging 9.42L/horse. Embarrassing. No one has been anywhere near winning. Luckily for this subpar crew, a few are well bred, and a few of them are switching over to turf for the first time.  I honestly won’t even be betting this race but for those of you who want some thoughts anyway, here we go. I reluctantly took Kundray on top for Michael Matz, mainly because Augustin Stable goes out of their way to win at Keeneland and this horse was a decent second last out over the turf at Gulfstream. Kundray will likely send and there doesn’t appear to be much else speed in the race. Next up I took Princesa Silvia for Bill Mott who is a half-sister to the phenomenal Saint Liam. She didn’t do much in her debut but hopefully she will step up here, being regally bred and a second time starter for Mott. Bene Pista rounds it out for me although I could’ve taken No Fault here as well. Bene Pista’s dam won the Ashland here at Keeneland and was a decent turf performer, so perhaps her daughter will show perform just an eighth as good as her mom and run a step here. She’s the beneficiary of first time Lasix, first time turf.

R4 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 7F Dirt – 3yo

1 Mutaraamy – 12 Conquest Harlequin – 7 Race Me Home (IRE)

Mutaraamy is for sure a single for me here. This McLaughlin trainee was a solid second in his previous start to the highly regarded Unified, and looks to simply improve here. Also gets first time Lasix for Kiaran McLaughlin, who is 24% with maiden second starters. Next up I’ll take Conquest Harlequin for Mark Casse who had a rough trip last out, fanning seven wide in the far turn and putting in a moderate rally. He still has to contest a wide draw but I believe he should run well. Round out with Race Me Home (IRE) for Dale Romans who was fourth in his debut at Tampa in March. Personally I believe he will do better on turf being a son of Oasis Dream (GB), but Romans has enough faith in him to return him in a dirt sprint at Keeneland and he has a nice post position for the distance. He may take to dirt after all as his dam, Society Selection, was a MG1W on the dirt, completing the Test-Alabama duo in three weeks time.

R5 – Alw 62000N1X – 1 1/8M Turf – F&M 4yo+

2 Sympathy – 5 Dea – 7 Summer House

I took Sympathy here for Chad Brown who ran a bang up race last out when beaten by 1 ½  at Gulfstream in her first North American start when left with too much to do before the wire. She had a very strong closing kick which suits Keeneland’s typical turf race style. Also in that race was my second choice, Dea, who a very close third to Sympathy with an equally late and almost as great turn of foot. I round out with the Mott horse Summer House who has a ton of speed but hasn’t found out how to make it last yet. You could throw 11 College Holy in to exotics with Ken McPeek as McPeek usually has his horses primed and ready to go for this meet.

R6 – The Ashland - G1 – 1 1/16M Dirt – 3yo F

3 Cathryn Sophia – 4 Rachel’s Valentina – 5 Carina Mia

It’s a shame this field is so light because it will end up being a jockey’s race but three of the most talented fillies in the United States line up to contest this year’s edition of the Ashland, against a full field of five. Cathryn Sophia has already demonstrated what she is worth in her undefeated career including three stakes victories, but the question remains as to whether or not she can stretch out to two turns. While her sire Street Boss was a notorious sprinter, her dam’s sire Mineshaft lends some stamina to the filly. She also demonstrated her ability to rate, and with Carina Mia in the race she may have to. Carina Mia is returning after a bit of a layoff after taking the G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs last November over a sloppy sealed track. She’s a quick filly and retains the mount of Keeneland expert Julian Leparoux. Rachel’s Valentina is another class act of a filly and was second here in the BC Juvenile Fillies to the esteemed Songbird. Her first start off of a layoff may seem daunting but the goal with her has been the Oaks, following in her mother Rachel Alexandra’s footsteps, so trainer Todd Pletcher will have her primed and ready to go. Any of these three fillies would be a worthy winner but I’ll take Cathryn Sophia on top because she’s won her four races by a total 41.75 lengths, averaging more than 10L/win, so I kind of doubt she has distance limitations at this point.

R7 – The Commonwealth - G3 – 7F Dirt – 4yo+

9 Holy Boss – 7 No Hiding Place – 8  Departing

Holy Boss is a solid competitor in this Commonwealth field. After a four race win streak last year culminating in the G2 Amsterdam, he ran straight out of luck when Runhappy decided to enter his next three races. Still, he finished a respectable fourth in the BC Sprint to round out the season against the Champ and the talented older due of Private Zone and Favorite Tale. He has an ideal post position here on the outside for the sprint distance and should do well off the layoff. Next up I’ll take No Hiding Place for Wesley Ward as the horse has come in off of three straight wins for the connections of Coolmore, although I am always skeptical of Turfway Park winners. He may go off shorter than he deserves here. Round out with Claiborne’s Departing, who always seems to find his way into the top three but isn’t quite sure where the winner’s circle is. He’s cutting back in distance here and perhaps that will freshen him up and help him out here.

R8 – The Shakertown – G2 – 5.5F Turf – 3yo+

8 Bye Bye Bernie – 10 Undrafted – 12 The Great War

Unfortunately in this race all of the horses that I like drew poor post positions. I’ll take Bye Bye Bernie on top who is a G2 winner at Woodbine and enters off a layoff for conditioner Brendan Walsh. One of my favorite horses to watch race is Undrafted, my second choice here. He always seems to find tough luck, but hopefully he can turn the tables today and mount a big effort. I round out with Wesley Ward’s other entry, The Great War. Both Undrafted and The Great War are closers, and Keeneland favors the European turn of foot so ideally they’ll both run well here despite past efforts over the track.

R9 – The Madison – G1 – 7F Dirt – 4yo+

7 Dancing House – 12 Stopchargingmaria – 1 Sheer Drama – 2 Wavell Avenue

Genuinely not sure what to make of this race as it may have one of the steepest, best fields that we have seen or will see all year. Two Breeders’ Cup winners enter for the first time since the BC, Stopchargingmaria and Wavell Avenue, with the latter taking the BC F&M Sprint at this distance. Granted, she had the perfect set up, but it’s just still not clear how good she truly is. Stopchargingmaria took the BC Distaff last year and is one of the most consistently good horses out there (despite how often I try to beat her). Then you have the likes of G1Ws Sheer Drama and Birdatthewire, and promising new shooters to G1 company such as Dancing House and Clothes Fall Off for Kiaran McLaughlin and another talented horse in Enchanting Lady. Round out with the wild card of Super Majesty switching over to Steve Asmussen’s barn and it truly is a great race. Luckily for the closers in the field there is a ton of speed in the race, but Wavell Avenue’s inside draw really harms her chances, as does Sheer Drama’s. I’m going to give Dancing House a try for a bit of a price, and follow up with the always talented Stopchargingmaria. Hopefully Sheer Drama will be able to overcome her rail post and get up in time, and I can’t discount Wavell Avenue from running a big one as all of the Breeders Cup winners have returned with huge efforts. It’s also noteworthy that the filly Birdatthewire gets blinkers for the first time because she has a tendency to bear out and lose focus, so expect her to be sharper as well today.

R10 – The Blue Grass – G1 – 1 1/8M Dirt – 3yos

4 Zulu – 6 Brody’s Cause – 3 Cherry Wine – 14 My Man Sam

What a shoddy grade one field! I mean really, there are only a few horses in this race that I would consider grade one worthy. The first to discuss would be Brody’s Cause, who actually already is a G1 winner on this track when taking the Breeders’ Futurity here last year and following it up with a troubled trip and a third place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He flopped last out in the Tampa Bay Derby but trainer Dale Romans has said he’s training like a monster. Hopefully he can get back on the right track here. The only horse I see beating Brody’s Cause would be Zulu for the connections of Pletcher/ Stonestreet and Coolmore. He put in a big effort when second to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth. However, Mohaymen flopped in his next start. Was that indicative of a weak group of Florida horses or was it more just the track? It still is unclear and it won’t become any more obvious until we see how Zulu runs here. Zulu has his tracking style on his side. Donegal Moon enters off of a decent effort at Parx but I personally think his Beyer figure is highly inflated, he didn’t run a lick in the Remsen, dropped his jock in the Jerome, and flopped again in the Withers. I’m highly skeptical and will not be using him. My Man Sam is an intriguing horse for Chad Brown having run second to Matt King Coal, who will contest the Wood this weekend.  He seems to be a speedy horse but just how good is he and can he handle the wide draw? Finally I’ll talk about Cherry Wine who was a very good fourth after an incredibly wide gate draw and troubled trip in the Rebel Stakes. He split horses heading for home and made up a lot of ground, and like fellow Romans’ entrant Brody’s Cause, will be flying late.

R11 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 1M Turf – 3yo F

5 Rebelle – 6 Always Right – 10 War Baby

Rebelle has the advantage of being the lone speed in the race and will hopefully be able to make it last after a long layoff and two good efforts at Saratoga. Next up I take Always Right for Al Stall who ships in from Fair Grounds off of two decent maiden attempts where she has shown promise. Round out with War Baby for Jonathan Sheppard who comes in off an okay effort at Gulfstream and stretches out here. 

A Return to the Races, and Blogging

After taking a winter siesta I have decided to resume blogging, for a number of reasons. I want to put my picks out there more, I want to share my experiences with others, and I want to shed some light on the relatively exclusive racing industry.  

For starters, an update on my life. I took a job with Spendthrift Farm in December and relocated to Lexington, Kentucky. An opportunity to work at such an historic farm was something that I could not pass up, and it has always been a goal of mine to live in Lexington and immerse myself fully in the horse capital of America. Making the move from Boston to Lexington was a daunting concept, but in reality is was much easier than I expected. I already knew a lot of people in the city so it was not as if I was starting from scratch. And honestly, fleeing the snow-ridden streets of Boston did wonders for me mentally, especially after the tragedy that was last year’s snowy 110.6 inches of winter.

Working at Spendthrift is great. Officially, my title is “stallion administrative assistant” but in reality I do a lot of social media and marketing. The role is still evolving. The office staff is incredibly welcoming and I feel quite at home here. The farm itself is absolutely stunning, the ideal image of Kentucky’s bluegrass and blue skies, dotted with well-bred mares and foals. We stand 27 stallions on the farm as well, so the hustle and bustle during breeding season is everlasting. Perhaps I’ll dedicate a future post to the history of Spendthrift, for it is quite intriguing and had such a profound influence on the evolution of the sport.

The Keeneland meet is about to begin with opening day this Friday, and I’m looking forward to it. Unfortunately the weather does not want to cooperate, and highs will be in the mid-40s on Friday and Saturday. Now, Lexington natives will claim that Keeneland is the best meet of horse racing in the country. I’ll argue that they’re biased, and Saratoga is by far the culmination of American horse racing. I’ll allow the next month to attempt to change my mind, but we shall see. Eighty degree weather beats out 40 degree weather any day in my book.

With that in mind, I’ll be posting my stakes picks for the weekend. Keeneland is an interesting track to play, as horses will ship in from all over the country for the meet and it also plays host to a lot of native Kentucky trainers, many of whom I am not as familiar with. It will definitely be a learning experience, but what kind of handicapper would I be if I didn’t enjoy learning?

Bring on Keeneland and spring in the Bluegrass.