Blue Grass Day at Keeneland

Keeneland Saturday Card

A great day of racing on Saturday headlined by three phenomenal Grade 1 races. Unfortunately for us attending in person, the weather is going to be quite cold with the potential of the wind chill bringing the temperature down even further. That may be why I prefer Saratoga. But rest assured, the great race card will make up for the poor weather! Cannot wait so let's dive in. 

R1 – Alw 62000N1X – 7F Dirt – 3yos

7 Dan the Go to Man – 3 Sonoma Crush – 1 Smart Moon 

The first race of the day is an average sprint allowance. I’ll take the 7 Dan the Go to Man on top as he ships in from a subpar stakes effort at Gulfstream Park but draws the outside gate. Sprint races at Keeneland tend to be won by outside horses and this Kenneally trainee was thought highly enough of to be entered in stakes company twice in his previous efforts. Two back he ran a decent second to Todd Pletcher’s Outwork who enters the G1 Wood at Aqueduct this weekend. Next up I’ll take the three horse, Sonoma Crush for Steve Asmussen. A winner in his first start last out, he debuted as favorite and showed some early speed for top connections of Stonestreet Farm and George Bolton. I’ll round out with Smart Moon for Mark Casse who was trounced in his last effort, here last year. After a break and a string of decent works he returns and retains the mount of top Keeneland jock Julien Leparoux.

R2 – OC 62k/N2X – 6.5F Dirt – 4yo+

2 Two Weeks Off – 1 Limousine Liberal – 5 Nite of the Hunter

I was hesitant to put the first two in their respective positions simply because of the difficulty horses have winning sprint races at Keeneland from inside post positions. However, they are both quality horses that are hard to overlook. Two Weeks Off enters off a longer-than-two-weeks layoff for Todd Pletcher, having not run since June of last year. However, Todd hits at 37% with horses off of a 180+ day break, so I like this horse’s chance. Not to mention he is already a winner over this track with a big 104 speed figure. Not much speed in the race and this horse likes to sit forward, so he may end up sending. To place I have Limousine Liberal, who was last seen running 11^th here some 10.25 lengths back in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. However, tossing that race you can look back at his two solid second place finishes in graded stakes prior, especially the G1 King’s Bishop when he was second to champion Runhappy. He’s put together a series of three bullets in his last few breezes so he’s heading in extra sharp. Round out with Nite of the Hunter, who enters here off an allowance win at Fair Grounds after switching to dirt. He may have just found his sweet spot with the surface and has an ideal post position.

R3 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 1 Mile Turf – 3yo+ F

6 Kundray – 7 Princesa Silvia – 2 Bene Pista

This is a total rat race in my opinion. The ten horses have been beaten in their prior start by 113 lengths, averaging 9.42L/horse. Embarrassing. No one has been anywhere near winning. Luckily for this subpar crew, a few are well bred, and a few of them are switching over to turf for the first time.  I honestly won’t even be betting this race but for those of you who want some thoughts anyway, here we go. I reluctantly took Kundray on top for Michael Matz, mainly because Augustin Stable goes out of their way to win at Keeneland and this horse was a decent second last out over the turf at Gulfstream. Kundray will likely send and there doesn’t appear to be much else speed in the race. Next up I took Princesa Silvia for Bill Mott who is a half-sister to the phenomenal Saint Liam. She didn’t do much in her debut but hopefully she will step up here, being regally bred and a second time starter for Mott. Bene Pista rounds it out for me although I could’ve taken No Fault here as well. Bene Pista’s dam won the Ashland here at Keeneland and was a decent turf performer, so perhaps her daughter will show perform just an eighth as good as her mom and run a step here. She’s the beneficiary of first time Lasix, first time turf.

R4 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 7F Dirt – 3yo

1 Mutaraamy – 12 Conquest Harlequin – 7 Race Me Home (IRE)

Mutaraamy is for sure a single for me here. This McLaughlin trainee was a solid second in his previous start to the highly regarded Unified, and looks to simply improve here. Also gets first time Lasix for Kiaran McLaughlin, who is 24% with maiden second starters. Next up I’ll take Conquest Harlequin for Mark Casse who had a rough trip last out, fanning seven wide in the far turn and putting in a moderate rally. He still has to contest a wide draw but I believe he should run well. Round out with Race Me Home (IRE) for Dale Romans who was fourth in his debut at Tampa in March. Personally I believe he will do better on turf being a son of Oasis Dream (GB), but Romans has enough faith in him to return him in a dirt sprint at Keeneland and he has a nice post position for the distance. He may take to dirt after all as his dam, Society Selection, was a MG1W on the dirt, completing the Test-Alabama duo in three weeks time.

R5 – Alw 62000N1X – 1 1/8M Turf – F&M 4yo+

2 Sympathy – 5 Dea – 7 Summer House

I took Sympathy here for Chad Brown who ran a bang up race last out when beaten by 1 ½  at Gulfstream in her first North American start when left with too much to do before the wire. She had a very strong closing kick which suits Keeneland’s typical turf race style. Also in that race was my second choice, Dea, who a very close third to Sympathy with an equally late and almost as great turn of foot. I round out with the Mott horse Summer House who has a ton of speed but hasn’t found out how to make it last yet. You could throw 11 College Holy in to exotics with Ken McPeek as McPeek usually has his horses primed and ready to go for this meet.

R6 – The Ashland - G1 – 1 1/16M Dirt – 3yo F

3 Cathryn Sophia – 4 Rachel’s Valentina – 5 Carina Mia

It’s a shame this field is so light because it will end up being a jockey’s race but three of the most talented fillies in the United States line up to contest this year’s edition of the Ashland, against a full field of five. Cathryn Sophia has already demonstrated what she is worth in her undefeated career including three stakes victories, but the question remains as to whether or not she can stretch out to two turns. While her sire Street Boss was a notorious sprinter, her dam’s sire Mineshaft lends some stamina to the filly. She also demonstrated her ability to rate, and with Carina Mia in the race she may have to. Carina Mia is returning after a bit of a layoff after taking the G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs last November over a sloppy sealed track. She’s a quick filly and retains the mount of Keeneland expert Julian Leparoux. Rachel’s Valentina is another class act of a filly and was second here in the BC Juvenile Fillies to the esteemed Songbird. Her first start off of a layoff may seem daunting but the goal with her has been the Oaks, following in her mother Rachel Alexandra’s footsteps, so trainer Todd Pletcher will have her primed and ready to go. Any of these three fillies would be a worthy winner but I’ll take Cathryn Sophia on top because she’s won her four races by a total 41.75 lengths, averaging more than 10L/win, so I kind of doubt she has distance limitations at this point.

R7 – The Commonwealth - G3 – 7F Dirt – 4yo+

9 Holy Boss – 7 No Hiding Place – 8  Departing

Holy Boss is a solid competitor in this Commonwealth field. After a four race win streak last year culminating in the G2 Amsterdam, he ran straight out of luck when Runhappy decided to enter his next three races. Still, he finished a respectable fourth in the BC Sprint to round out the season against the Champ and the talented older due of Private Zone and Favorite Tale. He has an ideal post position here on the outside for the sprint distance and should do well off the layoff. Next up I’ll take No Hiding Place for Wesley Ward as the horse has come in off of three straight wins for the connections of Coolmore, although I am always skeptical of Turfway Park winners. He may go off shorter than he deserves here. Round out with Claiborne’s Departing, who always seems to find his way into the top three but isn’t quite sure where the winner’s circle is. He’s cutting back in distance here and perhaps that will freshen him up and help him out here.

R8 – The Shakertown – G2 – 5.5F Turf – 3yo+

8 Bye Bye Bernie – 10 Undrafted – 12 The Great War

Unfortunately in this race all of the horses that I like drew poor post positions. I’ll take Bye Bye Bernie on top who is a G2 winner at Woodbine and enters off a layoff for conditioner Brendan Walsh. One of my favorite horses to watch race is Undrafted, my second choice here. He always seems to find tough luck, but hopefully he can turn the tables today and mount a big effort. I round out with Wesley Ward’s other entry, The Great War. Both Undrafted and The Great War are closers, and Keeneland favors the European turn of foot so ideally they’ll both run well here despite past efforts over the track.

R9 – The Madison – G1 – 7F Dirt – 4yo+

7 Dancing House – 12 Stopchargingmaria – 1 Sheer Drama – 2 Wavell Avenue

Genuinely not sure what to make of this race as it may have one of the steepest, best fields that we have seen or will see all year. Two Breeders’ Cup winners enter for the first time since the BC, Stopchargingmaria and Wavell Avenue, with the latter taking the BC F&M Sprint at this distance. Granted, she had the perfect set up, but it’s just still not clear how good she truly is. Stopchargingmaria took the BC Distaff last year and is one of the most consistently good horses out there (despite how often I try to beat her). Then you have the likes of G1Ws Sheer Drama and Birdatthewire, and promising new shooters to G1 company such as Dancing House and Clothes Fall Off for Kiaran McLaughlin and another talented horse in Enchanting Lady. Round out with the wild card of Super Majesty switching over to Steve Asmussen’s barn and it truly is a great race. Luckily for the closers in the field there is a ton of speed in the race, but Wavell Avenue’s inside draw really harms her chances, as does Sheer Drama’s. I’m going to give Dancing House a try for a bit of a price, and follow up with the always talented Stopchargingmaria. Hopefully Sheer Drama will be able to overcome her rail post and get up in time, and I can’t discount Wavell Avenue from running a big one as all of the Breeders Cup winners have returned with huge efforts. It’s also noteworthy that the filly Birdatthewire gets blinkers for the first time because she has a tendency to bear out and lose focus, so expect her to be sharper as well today.

R10 – The Blue Grass – G1 – 1 1/8M Dirt – 3yos

4 Zulu – 6 Brody’s Cause – 3 Cherry Wine – 14 My Man Sam

What a shoddy grade one field! I mean really, there are only a few horses in this race that I would consider grade one worthy. The first to discuss would be Brody’s Cause, who actually already is a G1 winner on this track when taking the Breeders’ Futurity here last year and following it up with a troubled trip and a third place in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He flopped last out in the Tampa Bay Derby but trainer Dale Romans has said he’s training like a monster. Hopefully he can get back on the right track here. The only horse I see beating Brody’s Cause would be Zulu for the connections of Pletcher/ Stonestreet and Coolmore. He put in a big effort when second to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth. However, Mohaymen flopped in his next start. Was that indicative of a weak group of Florida horses or was it more just the track? It still is unclear and it won’t become any more obvious until we see how Zulu runs here. Zulu has his tracking style on his side. Donegal Moon enters off of a decent effort at Parx but I personally think his Beyer figure is highly inflated, he didn’t run a lick in the Remsen, dropped his jock in the Jerome, and flopped again in the Withers. I’m highly skeptical and will not be using him. My Man Sam is an intriguing horse for Chad Brown having run second to Matt King Coal, who will contest the Wood this weekend.  He seems to be a speedy horse but just how good is he and can he handle the wide draw? Finally I’ll talk about Cherry Wine who was a very good fourth after an incredibly wide gate draw and troubled trip in the Rebel Stakes. He split horses heading for home and made up a lot of ground, and like fellow Romans’ entrant Brody’s Cause, will be flying late.

R11 – Md Sp Wt 60k – 1M Turf – 3yo F

5 Rebelle – 6 Always Right – 10 War Baby

Rebelle has the advantage of being the lone speed in the race and will hopefully be able to make it last after a long layoff and two good efforts at Saratoga. Next up I take Always Right for Al Stall who ships in from Fair Grounds off of two decent maiden attempts where she has shown promise. Round out with War Baby for Jonathan Sheppard who comes in off an okay effort at Gulfstream and stretches out here.