1. Nyquist – Doug O’Neill – Reddam Racing – Mario Gutierrez
It still shocks me that Nyquist isn’t number one on everyone’s
Derby list. How can you not have an undefeated champion at the top? He has done
more than any other horse in any of the preps and just exudes class. Are we
still questioning whether or not he can get 1 ¼ miles? He got the 1 1/8 of the
Florida Derby like it was nobody’s business, and even if his dam is by
Forestry, he has the stamina influences of Seeking the Gold and Cox’s Ridge
buried in his pedigree, so I’m not too concerned. Especially since the Derby is
often a staggering match anyway.
You can’t question the class that Nyquist has beaten either
as he prevailed after an incredibly difficult, wide trip in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile, defeating Grade 1 winners Brody’s Cause and Exaggerator. And despite
Exaggerator’s recent romp in the Santa Anita Derby, one must take into
consideration how soundly Nyquist has repeatedly beaten him. Nyquist can run on
the slop as he did in the Florida Derby or on a fast track, he is hands down
the most solid contender heading into the Kentucky Derby.
2.
Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen – Winchell Thoroughbreds
LLC & Three Chimney’s Farm – Florent Geroux
Is it weird that I think the Louisiana preps had some of the
best horses this year? Usually they aren’t full of top Derby prospects, but
this year Gun Runner and Mo Tom, even Tom’s Ready, are all nice horses. As a
matter of fact, the three 2nd-4th place finishers of the
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes are on my top ten list, with Mor Spirit being the
only one campaigned in California.
Gun Runner has stepped up to each challenge, taking the
Risen Star Stakes in his seasonal debut. The win was by no means effortless and
some horses put in a late drive to almost catch him, but he prevailed. First
off the layoff, a very solid effort. He then turned heads with his impressive
victory in the Louisiana Derby, tracking inside before switching out and
drawing off to a 4 ½ length victory, a little green down the stretch. Visually
he was super impressive, although the time was a slow 1:51.06, while older
horses earlier in the day in the New Orleans Handicap posted the same distance
in 1:50.06, a whole second quicker. He only got a 91 Beyer for the race, which
is pedestrian, but that seems to be the way with the majority of Derby preps
this year. Are we just dealing with a slow group of horses or are the Beyers
amiss? I think it’s probably a combo of both. Also, the last horse to win the
Louisiana Derby and the Kentucky Derby was Grindstone. The six weeks between
races probably doesn’t help Gun Runner’s case.
I love Gun Runner’s stalking style and his breeding, Candy
Ride out of a Giants Causeway mare ensures he will be able to get the distance.
Same cross as Shared Belief, Candy Ride out of a Storm Cat descended mare. His
dam is a MSW half-sister to champion Saint Liam, so he exudes class in the
pedigree.
Brody’s Cause returned to the scene on Saturday with an
impressive win in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Sitting far back early he
used his closing kick to draw away to a 1 ¾ length victory. It’s difficult to
tell whether or not this was solely due to a great turn of foot or if there was
a bit of a pace collapse, as the top three finishers were sitting very far back
early. His move was quite impressive however, as he started early on the far
turn, split horses, and drew off, ears pricked across the wire.
I wasn’t sure what to make of Brody’s flop in the Tampa Bay
Derby, but at this point I believe it is safe to say that he hated the track,
as many horses do trying Tampa for the first time, and he seems to be the kind
of horse who needs a race. Don’t forget that he was eighth in his debut,
distanced by 25 ¼ lengths, before returning to win easily in a maiden special
at Churchill.
Brody’s Cause’s pedigree is loaded with stamina, being a
$350,000 son of Giant’s Causeway out of the MSP mare Sweet Breanna, by Sahm. He
flew to win the Breeders’ Futurity last year in the slop over Exaggerator, and
he was then a good third to Nyquist and Swipe after a moderately difficult trip
in the BC Juvenile, again defeating Exaggerator. However, Brody’s Blue Grass
Beyer was again a victim of a slow number, registering only a 91. Like I’ve
said before, I do not trust Beyers, but I bring them up so hopefully others can
see the light as well.
4.
Mor Spirit – Bob Baffert – Michael Lund Peterson
- Gary Stevens
This may be a little too high to rank Mor Spirit, but I do
really like him. He always comes running at the end, and while some think he’s
a plodder, I feel he’s got room to improve and really kick on. Gary Stevens
didn’t even ask him to run in the sloppy Santa Anita Derby but he still put in
a nice rally at the end. It looked more like a prep, saving whatever he had for
the Derby, than a horse that wasn’t running on well. He got roasted by the fast
fractions that Danzing Candy set in the San Felipe, but he mounted a strong bid
toward the end of the race to overtake Exaggerator. I think the more distance
the better for him, as a son of Eskendereya (Giant’s Causeway), out of a
Seattle Slew mare, it seems only natural that he should enjoy stretching out.
I’m still so unsure about what to make of the Santa Anita
Derby, but I do think Gary Stevens rode Mor Spirit like it was prep, not the
real deal, and Exaggerator may be a little tired heading into the Derby
following that drastic move. I also like Mor Spirit’s mid-pack style, I think
he will be able to adapt well to the Derby field.
5.
Exaggerator – Keith Desormeaux - Big Chief
Racing, LLC, Head of Plains Partners LLC, Rocker O Ranch, LLC et al. – Kent Desormeaux
Exaggerator threw a serious curveball with his victory in
the Santa Anita Derby, and I honestly do not know how to make heads or tails of
it. Did he take a massive step forward? Was he just fonder of the mud (though
he was second in slop last year in the Breeders’ Futurity)? Was he the
beneficiary of Danzing Candy’s quick opening fractions? I’m so lost. All I know
is he ran a 101 Beyer even though a MAIDEN ran a quicker race than he did at
the same distance earlier in the card. None of it makes any sense whatsoever.
It’s hard to put him down lower on the list after Saturday’s performance, but I
by no means want him any higher than this.
In terms of pedigree, he’s a son of Curlin so he should be
able to run all day, but did he peak too early with too big a run? His
broodmare sire was Vindication, who was champion two year old, so he got his
precocity from that side of the fam. Curlin was unraced as a 2yo. But he also
was a super impressive winner from the beginning. Exaggerator is kind of a mix
of the two. He’ll be a shorter price than I think he should be on the first
Saturday in May, that’s all I know.
6.
Cupid – Bob Baffert – Coolmore – Martin Garcia
Though I may be tempted, I won’t put Cupid any higher on my
list until the Arkansas Derby is run. This expensive ($900,000) son of Tapit,
out of the good Beau Genius mare Pretty ‘N’ Smart, just broke his maiden in
February. He did it nicely though, bobbling at the start and sitting a stalking
trip, wide before overtaking the leaders and drawing off to a 5 ¼ length
victory, geared down. It’s important to note that third in that race was Trojan
Nation, who subsequently almost beat Outwork in the Wood Memorial this past
weekend at Aqueduct. He also ran 44ft more than the second place finisher, or
about 5 lengths. A convincing victory.
He returned immediately in the G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn
where he was sent to the lead and set a super-quick opening fraction of 22.96s
before slowing it down a hair. Whitmore mounted a drive on the far stretch but
Cupid had something left in reserve and pulled away to a 1 ¼ length victory.
With Cupid’s natural tactical speed he could be a big threat to the Derby
field, with my main question being whether or not he can stretch it out for a
mile and a quarter. I may be one of the few but I still question Tapit’s
offspring’s staying ability when matched with a broodmare sire like Beau
Genius, who isn’t incredibly well known for throwing stamina horses. Many of my
questions will be answered on Saturday when he takes on a nice field of horses
in the Arkansas Derby.
7.
Mo Tom – Tom Amoss – G M B Racing – Corey Lanerie
This poor, poor horse. Jockey Corey Lanerie has gotten it
into so much trouble in its starts that it is barely on the cusp of qualifying
for the Derby. However, there is so much potential here. This son of Uncle Mo
has shown a keen ability to close and still has acquired Derby points despite
each painful-to-watch trip that Corey has guided him on.
Mo Tom began his season with a victory in the Lecomte
Stakes. Settling far back early, he mounted a big move in the far turn and
swept forward before having to switch outside to the center of the track and
still getting up to beat Tom’s Ready by 2 ¼ lengths. He followed that up with a
bad trip in the Risen Star, where he had to check sharply after rallying from
last in the home stretch, hampering any chances he had at winning. He still got
up for third, and Corey retained the mount for his next race, the Louisiana
Derby. As if his trip in the Risen Star couldn’t get any worse, Corey managed
to find even more traffic trouble, and Mo Tom suffered the consequences when
finishing fourth as the favorite.
Unfortunately Amoss has decided to keep Corey Lanerie on Mo
Tom, which makes me sad. It could also be a problem if Cherry Wine or Unbridled
Outlaw get into the Kentucky Derby, because Lanerie rides them both. Either
way, Mo Tom will have his work cut out for him. He’s a deep closer, similar to
Brody’s Cause, and that running style can be an impediment come Derby day in
the twenty horse field.
8.
Mohaymen – Kiaran McLaughlin – Godolphin –
Junior Alvarado
Mohaymen seemed like one of the top Derby prospects heading
into the Florida Derby, but the end results of the race really muddled the
picture. After dominating and effortless victories in the Holy Bull and the
Fountain of Youth, Mohaymen found himself unable to compete with Nyquist in the
much-heralded Florida Derby and dropped back to finish fourth.
The question is, did Mohaymen have an off day, or is he just
not that good? It’s really difficult to discern. First of all, his wins heading
into the Florida Derby were just absolute cakewalks. However, none of the
horses that he beat came back to flatter him. Fellowship actually came back
from a 3rd to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth to run 3rd
to Nyquist in the Florida Derby, but he was by no means impressive. And Zulu,
second to Mohaymen in the Fountain of Youth, came back to run a clunker as the
favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes.
So what to make of Mohaymen? He had a wide trip in the
Florida Derby, and he clearly didn’t take well to the slop. But was the
performance something you can draw a line through or is he just not as good as
everyone thought? It’s very unclear but one thing is for sure, McLaughlin will
have him ready to go at his best for the Kentucky Derby.
9.
Danzing Candy – Clifford Sise - Halo Farms, Bashor, Jim and Bashor, Dianne –
Mike Smith
Danzing Candy looked like the real deal when he set rapid
fractions in the San Felipe and became an easy winner, but his Santa Anita
Derby was a much different race. Mike Smith again sent him to the lead and set
blazing fractions early, and the horse faded badly at the end to finish fourth.
My qualm here is that Mike Smith should’ve used this race as an ability to
teach Danzing Candy how to rate, not to pretend he was on Songbird and soar to
the lead and never look back. Unfortunately, Smith sent him and sent him fast.
It’s also hard to tell if Danzing Candy couldn’t get the distance, or if he was
just not a fan of the slop. I’m hopeful it’s the second because he’s got such
natural speed that could be quite beneficial for him come Derby Day.
Besides, if I have Exaggerator on my top 10 and I’m not
exactly sure why, I don’t think I can toss Danzing Candy completely either, as
he was one of my favorite’s heading into last weekend. If his connections do
indeed choose to run him on Derby day, hopefully he can adjust.
10.
Swipe – Keith Desormeaux - Big Chief Racing,
LLC, Justice, James C. and Shelton, Billy R. – Flavien Prat
Swipe is entered in this weekend’s Lexington Stakes at
Keeneland, and even if he does win it, he still is barely on the edge of making
it into the Derby. He has missed a lot of time this season early on, but I’m
hoping for a big comeback. He ended his season last year with four consecutive
runner-up efforts to unbeaten 2yo champion Nyquist, but I always thought that
he would improve with age. This will be a huge step for him, to take the
Lexington and then compete in the Derby, but he was my number one Derby
prospect last year and I really have confidence in his ability. A simple $5,000
sales purchase, he is a son Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone, who is in turn a
son of Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. His broodmare sire is Grand Slam, who
is very useful as a BMS. He should easily get the distance, but will he get the
points?
Honorable Mentions: Cherry Wine, Tom’s Ready, Trojan Nation,
Adventist, Laoban, Suddenbreakingnews
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