Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 5

R2: UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

7 Divine Image – 15 Al Hayette –  9 Razeena

Divine Image was a very impressive winner for Godolphin upon debut in mid-December when beating a field at Chelmsford by six lengths.  She’s a daughter of Scat Daddy who has had success on every surface, so no doubt she’ll have the chance to be successful here. She is likely going off the international favorite, but for good reason. Next up is Al Hayette, who has won two here at Meydan quite impressively. The daughter of Union Rags has demonstrated a strong turn of foot, and has beaten third selection, Razeena, two races ago in the latter’s debut and singular race thus far. Al Hayette’s biggest challenge will come in the draw, which is gate 15. Razeena is a daughter of Malibu Moon trained by Doug Watson, and she should improve here in her second start.  

R3: Meydan Classic Trial – Conditions – 1400m(7F) – Turf

13 Woven - 5 Golden Jaguar - 15 Nashirah

Woven was a good second at Meydan last out over the distance for trainer David Simcock, and should be competitive again here. Golden Jaguar debuted at Jebel Ali for Phoenix Ladies Syndicate and won impressively. Jebel Ali is a unique course with an uphill stretch run that rivals Warren Hill. A horse that debuts over it and wins is either very good, or just very much better than a bad bunch. We will hope for the first option. A son of Animal Kingdom, he should take to the surface and extra two furlongs no problem. Again, his biggest fault is that he has been drawn in gate 15. Round out with Godolphin’s Nashirah, a daughter of Dubawi who was a good second to Al Hayette in her last start, taking the lead in the stretch before being overtaken by the winner.

R4: G3 Al Shindagha Sprint – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

4 Drafted – 1 Ibn Malik – 5 My Catch

Drafted was very impressive when second in the G3 Dubawi Stakes last out, and he was absolutely flying at the end. He’s two wins and second from three tries at this distance for trainer Doug Watson, and I can only see him improving that record. Ibn Malik was third in his last start, a handicap over five furlongs at the beginning of January. He made up a lot of ground in the final furlong, so the benefit of an additional furlong here should be a big bonus for him. Round out with My Catch, who was third in the G3 Dubawi Stakes. I don’t think he is better than the others, but with the deferral of Raven’s Corner he certainly could be the best of the rest. An honorary mention to Steve Asmussen’s Switzerland, who is actually a two-time G3 winner last year, but had his form tail off at the end of the season.

R5: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

4 Honorable Treasure – 1 Gold Town - 8 Thegreatcollection

A big, competitive field here that is tricky to navigate. A lot of speed in the race, with Bocharat and Galvanize potentially locking horns for the lead. I think that sets up well for a mid-pack or closing style horse to get up to win. I actually didn’t think too much of Honorable Treasure in his last start, but he proved me wrong when closing from off the pace to finish second to the Swedish I Kirk. Gold Town probably needed his last start, and should improve here as it’s the second up after a long, long layoff and he was so talented last year. Finally, I’m going to try turning the tables on Capezzano with the horse that was runner-up in that race, Thegreatcollection.

R6: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

6 Key Victory – 4 Astronomer – 8 Oasis Charm

Key Victory actually ran a pretty good race when fourth of a Godolphin superfecta in his last start at Meydan. He wasn’t beaten much, just 1.25 lengths, and he was successful over this trip at Newmarket back in May. I think he will improve here. Astronomer, recently acquired from the Coolmore Partners and Markus Jooste by Mike de Kock, makes his first start since transferring from Ballydoyle where he had four wins from six starts. Mike thinks the horse should run well and will have room for improvement throughout the season. Round out with Oasis Charm, who hasn’t run since May, but was victorious twice over in his only two starts of last year. He’s coming in off a long layoff, but Charlie will have him ready for a good run.

R7: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

15 Bedouin’s Story – 5 Seniority – 2 Baroot

Bedouin’s Story had a really tough trip in his last start at Meydan, having to navigate a daunting path home in the stretch and checking late. With a wide draw in 12, he’ll not have to navigate from the inside, and will likely have a clearer trip. Seniority, owned by The Queen, ran a good race in his last start when fourth in a handicap over 7F here at Meydan. He was toward the rear of the pack coming out of the turn and closed well. The additional furlong and potentially being more forwardly place will benefit this horse. Baroot had a solid win in his last start for trainer Mike de Kock here, but I think there are others who will improve more than he will in this race.

Dubai World Cup Carnival Night 4

Dubai World Cup Carnival Night 4

R1: Handicap – 1000m(5F) – Turf

1 Faatinah –2 Hit the Bid -9  Mazzini

I have faith that after his impressive performance last out, Australian raider Faatinah will reign supreme in tonight’s opening race. Hit the Bid had an impressive performance as well but likely as he was multiple lanes on the inside away from Faatinah’s late-closing bid, likely didn’t get the opportunity to throw down competitively in the end. I still think Faatinah is likely the superior sprinter of the two. European Mazzini is my next selection, coming in off a string of wins under Oisin Murphy back whilst in the yard of James Fanshawe. He debuts now in the stable of Fawzi Nass, and he seems like he has a decent chance here, though he may need a race off the break.

R2: Al Bastakiya Trial – Conditions – 3yo only –  1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

1 Grecko – 6 Estihdaaf – 3 Victory Command

Likely the most intriguing horse that Kenny McPeek brought over for the Carnival is the Argentinian import Grecko, who hasn’t been since winning a G1 Juvenile race at Palermo in Argentina in June. Whilst he is definitely up against it with the layoff and the travel. Estihdaaf will get another chance for me after a plodding attempt in his Meydan debut on the turf on January 10^th. He switches over to dirt here, which he is fitting for a son of Arch out of a Ghostzapper mare.  Round out with Mark Johnston’s Victory Command, who I was a bit hesitant to pick over the Phoenix thoroughbreds entrant, but figured it is worth a shot. While Johnston has a rather dismal batting average of winners to runners here in Dubai (batting at about 3%), this horse is already a listed winner on the turf back in England, and the surface change as well as distance may beG2  a challenge for him, but one he may very well step up to.

R3: G2 Al Rashidiya – 1800m(9F) – Turf

3 Dream Castle – 1 Blair House – 9 Deauville

A Godolphin-heavy race here, and I’ll take Saeed bin Suroor’s Frankel gelding Dream Castle on top. He was impressive in his last start when unleashing a furious turn of foot en route to winning the G3 Singspiel Stakes here at Meydan. Another effort like that will be hard to beat. Blair House returns to Meydan after an Australian campaign that peaked when second to Benbatl in the G1 Caufield Stakes. He was a G1 winner here last year over the distatnce, so if he returns to form he has every chance in the race. I’ll round out with ex-Coolmore Deauville, who was sent to the lead in the Singspiel and couldn’t kick home, finishing 11^th. He may have needed the start for the new connections, look for him to rebound here.

R4: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Dirt

1 Senior Investment – 5 Tried and True – 2 Aquarium

An awfully murky race, no clear standout here. I took Senior Investment for Kenny McPeek, who was last seen tackling the Marathon on the dirt Breeders’ Cup weekend and failing the test of stamina. His form has tailed off since he won the G3 Lexington Stakes back in 2017, followed by a show placing in the prolific G1 Preakness, but he should still be competitive here. Next up, Tried and True, the son of Malibu Moon who was his last start at Jebel Ali before being beaten by 10.5 lengths in a race many of his fellow competitors are coming out of today, when second to New Trails. Finally, I took the Mark Johnston trainee Aquarium, who will ideally break sharp as he has done in the past and has the potential to take to the dirt, as a product of the same sire did in the Dubai World Cup victor Animal Kingdom.

R5: G2 Al Fahidi Fort – 1400m(7F) – Turf

4 Mythical Magic – 7 D’Bai – 9 Comin’ Through

A competitive race here, Godolphin’s Mythical Magic on top for me. He ran a good second when closing last out in a listed stakes at Saint-Cloud, beaten just ¾ of a length over the distance. Prior to that he was another ¾ lengths behind the winner in second after a 315 day layoff and the ultimate gear change, gelding. Appleyby thought awfully well of him as a 3yo, competing in a G1 in France, but he didn’t live up to expectations. He definitely has room to improve here off of his last two starts. The other Appleby contender, D’Bai, is my next pick. He has been running in group company for the duration of the year, and has a couple of placings to his name, as well as G3 back in June at Haydock.  He set the record over this distance at Meydan last year, and it still holds, so he will be a strong competitor. Round out with Comin’ Through for the Aussie trainer of the World’s Best Racehorse, Chris Waller. He’s been competing in G1s in Australia and most recently in Hong Kong, but he hasn’t seen the winners circle since beating fan favorite Tom Melbourne in the G2 Tramway Stakes in September. Prior to that he won the G1 Doomben Cup over 10 furlongs, so he has a lot of credentials but I believe it will take a lot to beat the Godolphin runners.

R6: Handicap – 2410m(12F) – Turf

4 Sharpolo – 1 Bin Battuta – 3 Wadigor

The handicap that Sharpolo and Bin Battuta came out of last time was an impressive race, with Bin Battuta victorious after a clean drive up the inside rail, and another Godolphin runner in Ispolini nabbing second to subsequently win his next start. Sharpolo was third in the race and galloped out in front after having to switch outside of traffic in the stretch, so with a clear run of it here I think he may turn the tables on the Godolphin entrant. Bin Battuta was still impressive last out so it could go either way between the top two. Round out with Nicholas Bachalard’s Wadigor, who is coming in off an incredibly long layoff following his last start in a handicap at Royal Ascot in 2017 whilst in the yard of Roger Varian. He is an interesting horse here, and many question marks surround his name, though he was talented winning all three of his starts prior to his defeat in the handicap and subsequent layoff.

Dubai World Cup Carnival - Night 3

R1: TB – Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Dirt

8 Laieth – 1  I Kirk – 5 Pop the Hood

The Godolphin runner Laieth is a lightly raced son of Dubawi for Saeed bin Suroor. He’s 4:2-1-0 lifetime, all on all weather surfaces. Most recently second by a neck at Wolverhampton, he’s a bit of a longshot here. However, he is getting 7kgs from top-rated Swedish horse and my second choice,  I Kirk, who was most recently a 5-length victor of a G3 over the distance in his home country. The weight break is too significant to overlook in this sprint. Round out with new Doug Watson transfer from the United States, Pop the Hood. He’s been competitive on the New York circuit, and while no world beater, it will be interesting to see how the older horse transitions to Dubai, coming off a break since Saratoga.

R2: Handicap – 2810m(14F) – Turf

2 Ispolini – 1 Red Galileo – 3 Appeared

Ispolini ran a good second last out to Bin Battuta on the first night of the Carnival, beaten 1.5 lengths. Bin Battuta ran one of the superior races of the Carnival thusfar, so with him out of the way, this could be Ispolini’s race to lose. Red Galileo also returns for the Godolphin continent, not seen since his 6^th place finish last year in the Gold Cup. He gets the mount of expert Christophe Soumillon, so if this eight year old is up to the task, he will be afforded every possibility. Round out with David Simcock’s Appeared, who was also seen in the same race as Ispolini a couple weeks ago. He finished impressively in that race to land a quick-closing fourth, so look for him coming at the end.

R3: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

1 Secret Ambition – 9 Cappezano – 7 Draco

Secret Ambition drops out of stakes company to enter in this handicap carrying top weight of 60kgs. Nevertheless, he’s been a solid performer and perhaps needed his last start, his first run of the season since a lackluster 10^th in the Mile on World Cup night. Cappezano is a horse that showed a lot of potential in the past, and this is his first time out of listed company as well since February of last year. The class break and 4.5kgs he’s getting from the top-rated horse in the race should benefit him, and if he breaks away sharp enough, look for him.  Draco has graduated through the ranks at Jebel Ali since being relocated from Florida, where he was most recently successful in breaking his maiden on the third try in statebred company. This is a bit of a class jump for him but since relocated to Nicholas Bachalard he has been at the top of his game, and will also be forwardly placed.

R4: G2 Cape Verdi – 1600m(8F) – Turf

7 Peri Lina - 1 Poetic Charm – 6 Mia Tesoro

Taking a chance in this race with Turkish invader Peri Lina, who is coming in off of a few solid Local G1 performances in Turkey. She’s highly competitive in Turkey, but it will be interesting to see how her form translates to Meydan. A wildcard here, but worth a shot. Poetic Charm, a half sister to good sire Teofilo, is one of three good Godolphin horses contesting the race, and likely the most competitive of the three. She had a bad race last out at Keeneland, but it’s easy to draw a line through that race and look at the rest of her form – which has been competitive in England.  Round out with Charlie Fellowes’ Mia Tesoro, whom comes in off a break since her last start, a subpar performance in a G3 over 2400m at Newmarket last out. The cut back in distance to one she is more comfortable with, having three wins from four starts over a mile, will be beneficial to her.

R5: Handicap – 2000m(10F) – Turf

4 Nordic Lights – 3 Mountain Hunter – 7 Harlan Strong

Unclear which of the five Godolphin entrants will come out on top, if any, but I went with Charlie Appleby’s Nordic Lights. A very lightly raced gelding, Nordic Lights was most recently seen running eigthth in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot. Prior to that he faced Roaring Lion in the G2 Dante, placing fifth. He’s since been gelded and with a long break, he may be ready to roll here. If Appleby thought he was good enough to take on Group company in England, then one can assume he showed enough potential to be an intriguing pick in this race off the change and layoff. Mountain Hunter had a few good runs at Meydan last year, winning a handicap during the Carnival and running second in his follow-up effort. He returns here under Soumillon, and it is likely he will be ready here. Perhaps it is the Americana in me but I’ll take Ken McPeek’s Harlan Strong to complete the tri. He’s not actually contested this distance before, and it seems that McPeek hasn’t really been sure of his ideal distance as he’s run everything from 1700m to 2600m in his last few starts. However, I have to give my own home team a try here and why not take it in this murky handicap, to usurp the potential Godolphin monopoly in the race

R6: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

4 Fire Away - 10 Desert Fire – 6 Muraaqeb

Taking another chance on the ex-Phipps horse who was purchased for South African connections at Fasig Tipton’s summer horses of racing age sale for $450,000 to stand at stud, with a quick jaunt at Meydan for SA’s Mike de Kock first on the agenda. It’s unclear how he will settle into his start at Meydan. He won a G3 back in the spring at Pimlico that was rained off the turf, and he followed that up with a fourth in the G3 Poker Stakes at Belmont Park behind Oscar Performance, who went on to win the G1 Woodbine Mile. Desert Fire is another very lightly raced colt for Godolphin, having just three lifetime starts, two of which resulted in wins. As an uproven entity, he is interesting here coming off of his 12 length victory at Leicester back in September. Round out with the Australian Muraaqeb, who was second by a neck in his last start at Sandown in the G3 Eclipse Stakes. He has a live chance here, and the Hayes partnership must be confident in him in order to bring him over.

Dubai World Cup Carnival 2019 - Night 2

R1: PA – G1 Al Maktoum Challenge Round 1 – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

12 RB Torch

R2: Dubai Trophy – 3yo – 1400m(7F) – Turf

7 Estihdaaf - 15 Dream With You –– 4 Sporting Chance

Estihdaaf, a son of Arch, ridden by Christophe Soumillon for Godolphin, is my top pick at a bit of a price here. In his most recent start of three total he broke his maiden at Leicester over the distance. His dam is a full sister to MG1W on the turf Better Lucky, so there is quality in the family that suggests this horse will continue to improve. Dream with You breaks from gate four in this race, and his trainer seems confident that the horse, who is still a maiden from six starts thus far, has a chance as he had him running in G3 company two back. Caullery has had success at Dubai in the past as well, with two wins and a second from seven starts. Close out with Sporting Chance, the probable speed of the race. He steps up a furlong in trip, and as he hasn’t run since October, I’m hoping he will need a race and be beaten as a relatively short favorite.

R3: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – 3yo – 1600m(8F) – Dirt

2 Royal Marine – 8 Giant Hero – 10 Nitro

Going to start off with a proven G1 winner here in Godolphin’s Royal Marine. A son of Raven’s Pass, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup when on a synthetic surface, he’s already proven himself in top class company in France. Surely a test to see whether or not he finds the dirt suitable for an inevitable UAE Derby tilt, he’s going to be in fine form for this race. Follow him with Giant Hero, a well-bred son of Giant’s Causeway out of a daughter of G1 winner Hollywood Story. He broke his maiden impressively at Ellis Park last year for Steve Asmussen, with the runner up landing 4^th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile later in the season. Round out with Nitro, an unraced son of Candy Ride out of the Bernardini mare Secret Jewel, who was a $1.2 million Keeneland September purchase in her own right, being a half sister to Breeders’ Cup winner Shared Account and GSW Colonial Flag. He was not a particularly expensive purchase at $32,000 in Ocala, but trained by Doug Watson, he will be given every opportunity.

R4: Handicap – 1200m(6F) – Turf

2 Intisaab -- 1 Above the Rest –– 6 Roussel

Intisaab was second by a head in his last start, a listed race on the all weather at Lingfield. That was his first up off a long break, having not run since July – probably well deserved due to his extended campaign last year. He won a local G3 in Qatar in February of last year, so he should have no problem with the climate. He’s good fresh and will hopefully be ready to roll. Above the Rest drops out of multiple attempts in graded company here, and if he breaks well out of the gate should be pretty competitive. Roussel is a good looking son of Kodiac for Godolphin, and Appleby must have thought highly of him as he tried him in the Commonwealth Cup last summer. He’s been off since August and should be fresh for a good effort here.

R5: G2 – Al Maktoum Challenge R1 – 1600m(8F)

8 Gold Town – 7 Heavy Metal – 4 Muntazah

The first round of the Maktoum Challenge brings together a strong field including Heavy Metal, winner of last year’s G2 Godolphin Mile, as well as runner up Muntazah. However, I’m going to go with last year’s burgeoning star Gold Town, whom was heavily respected when heading into the UAE Derby last year, but did not turn in his best effort when fourth beaten far, and hasn’t been seen since. I think Appleby will have him right his debut here today.  Vying for the lead with Gold Town will be Heavy Metal, who makes his first start back since last year’s crowning victory. I’m banking on Gold Town’s class here, but wouldn’t be surprised to see this nine-year-old veteran returning to the winners circle.  Finish the top three out with Muntazah, who on his only dirt try in the premier Godolphin Mile last year ran second. Being a son of Dubawi this could simply be his surface of preference, so although he was beaten badly a month ago in a listed race on the turf at Abu Dhabi, settling behind the top two here he may very well be rolling at the end to nab them.

R6: Handicap – 1900m(9.5F) – Dirt

6 Glassy Waters – 3 New Trails – 2 Saltarin Dubai

A pretty difficult handicap here to make heads or tails of. I went with Glassy Waters as the top choice, hopefully providing jockey Hayley Turner with her first victory in the UAE. Glassy Waters is coming in off of two victories over the all weather at Lingfield and Kempton, and he is certainly bred for the dirt being a son of Distorted Humor out of a stakes winning daughter of AP Indy. Follow with New Trails, a Medaglia d’Oro gelding who has run well in his two dirt starts, a first in an 95-105 handicap at Meydan back in November, followed by a runner up effort to the talented Cosmo Charlie in a listed race on December 20. Finally, try Saltarin Dubai,  who won a handicap impressively by 5 lengths last March before giving it a go in the Dubai World Cup, a huge step up in class. He returned this season with a dull 7^th in a listed race, but may benefit from returning to handicap company. It also is worth mentioning that the other Mike de Kock runner, Light the Lights, tries dirt for the first time. His sire Western Winter was a stakes winner on the dirt, and second in the G1 Met Mile – so he may take to the surface and is worth a longshot bet.

R7: Handicap – 1600m(8F) – Turf

8 Good Effort – 11 Eshtiraak – 2 King’s Field

Really competitive field here, though Godolphin has 5 horses in the race, I’ll be taking Good Effort on top. He’s been running well recently in handicaps, and was second in a listed race at Newbury two back. He’s been doing a solid job of rising through the ranks, and if he puts in a good effort, may be victorious here at a decent price. Eshtiraak makes the trip from Australia for the Hayes partnership, and he’s been running very well in Victoria, coming off of two consecutive victories over the distance. He should be competitive here. Round out with one of Joseph O’Brien’s runners in King’s Field. The son of Kodiac drew well here in gate three and was a winner last out over the distance at Dundalk over O’Brien’s other entrant, Equitant.